ClimTrans2050: Modelling Austria's Transition to a Low Carbon Society by 2050

1. Expert Workshop„ClimTrans2050“Open source model for analysing Austria’s transition to a low carbon society by 2050 – A research plan Functionality focused modeling of non-energy related emissions March 4th, 2016

2. non-energy emissions Which non-energy sources generate greenhouse gas emissions? • agricultural production • industrial productionprocesses • extraction and distribution of fossil fuels • waste disposal • the use of F-gases • land use, land use change and forestry (either source or sink) Agricultural production is the most important non-CO2-emissionsource from non-energy sources. Industrial production processes are the most important CO2-emission source from non-energy sources.

3. agricultural production Status quo of emissions from agricultural production

4. relatedfunctionalities Which functionalities are relevant for non-energy sources? • Nutrition • Agricultural production • Industrial processes • Waste disposal • Shelter • Industrial processes • Forestry • Access to persons and goods • Industrial processes In modelling • Reproducibles (cf. Figure 3 of research plan) • industrial processes • the use of F-gases • waste disposal • extraction and distribution of fossil fuels • land use, land use change and forestry (either source or sink)

5. Modelling approaches– the food cascade Food is just another form of energy • functionality approach nutrition Food needed Food consumed Food bought Food supplied • common approach

6. Modelling approaches– generification Food is a special type of good/ service • functionality approach Functio-nality Goods/ services needed Goods/ services consumed Goods/ services bought Goods/ services supplied • common approach

7. Modelling approaches Detailed view on consumption and production Imports Domestic production Domestic consumption exports Domestic consumption = Food bought Domestic production Food consumed waste Food needed added consump-tion Food sold (including exports) Production losses Wasted products

8. Next research steps (1) Research tasks for nutrition for Tier 1 (physical layer)/ what the model should be capable of: • status quo starting from functionalities; amount of total emissions in coherence with national inventory Austria • Assess availability, utility and quality of relevant data such • Suggestions for improving data availability based on gaps • Scenarios for future nutrition consumption and how it can be influenced (behavioural changes -> institutional layer) have to be developed. Factors of well-being should also be considered

9. Next research steps (2) • Analysing changes of technical parameters/ emissions factors such as • production of calories/animal • yield of grain with a certain content of calories/proteins/carbohydrates per hectare of land • emission factors (e.g. race of cattle). • Assessment of uncertainties concerning data and model results; focus on the most relevant and sensitive parameters.

10. Next research steps (3) Modeling the linkage between Tier 1 and 2 (economic layer) - Interlink most important economic parameters for nutrition and related emissions - Structure of the agricultural sector (size of farms, percentage of organic farming,…) - Interlink technical parameters and emissions(e.g. learning curves, but also complete switches of technologies) - Allow for and integrate breakthrough technologies - Change of technological coefficients over time - Deal with boundaries and restrictions (e.g. area, water, human resources) - Avoid double counting of activities

11. Contact • Thomas Krutzler • +43-1-31304-5542 • thomas.krutzler@umweltbundesamt.at • www.umweltbundesamt.at • Umweltbundesamt project team: • Jürgen Schneider, Ilse Schindler, Michael Anderl, Helmut Gaugitsch, Thomas Gallauner, Stephan Poupa, Gudrun Stranner