Guido Franco Dan Cayan

1. Potential Impacts of ClimateChange on California: New Findings from the 2008 Impacts Assessment Guido Franco Dan Cayan Public Interest Energy Research Program Scripps Institution of Oceanography California Energy Commission University of California, San Diego U.S. Geological Survey California Energy Commission’s Climate Change Center Climate Action Team Sacramento, California March 11, 2009

2. Outline • Process and participation in preparing 2008 Climate Change Impact Assessment (Scenarios Report) • Overall strategy • Climate and sea level rise scenarios • Illustrative preliminary results • Conclusions

3. Process, Participation and Status

4. Scenarios Sub-Group • Sub-group served as a steering committee • Core Group was main interface with scientists • Scientists associated with several institutions, mostly from California have produced more than 35 scientific papers. (The 2006 Scenarios Study had ~20 papers,) Scenario Subgroup of the CAT Team CalEPA, Resource Agency, ARB, Caltrans, DWR, OPC, Coastal Commission, BCDC, OEHHA, Dept. of Health, Cal Fire, CDFG, CDFA, CEC Core Group Dan Cayan (Co-Chair, Scripps), Michael Hanemann (UC Berkeley), Andrew Altevogt (CalEPA), Alan Sanstad (LBNL), Susanne Moser (Consultant/PIER), Bart Croes (ARB), D. Orrill (Resources), Guido Franco (C0-Chair – CEC) Research Team Scripps/UC San Diego, UC Berkeley, UC Santa Barbara, Stanford, UC Merced, Santa Clara University, USGS, UC Davis, RAND, Pacific Institute, JPL/UCLA, TNC, Oregon State, UC Santa Cruz, LLNL, USFS, LBNL, OEHHA, DWR, ARB, CDF, CEC Organization 2008 Scenarios Subgroup of the CAT Team Cal/EPA, Resources Agency, ARB, OEHHA, CAL FIRE, DWR, CDFA, CDFG, CEC,OPC, BCDC, Coastal Commission Chair: Guido Franco (Energy Commission) Core Group Dan Cayan (Scripps) Michael Hanemann (UC Berkeley) Guido Franco (CEC) Susi Moser (Consultant) Alan Sanstad (LBNL) Andrew Altevogt (Cal/EPA) Bart Croes (ARB) Deborah Orrill (Resources Agency) Research Team (partial list) Water Jay Lund University of California, Davis David Purke Stockholm Environmental Institute John Dracup University of California, Berkeley Larry Dale Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Francis Chung Department of Water Resources Jamie Anderson Department of Water Resources Michael Hanemann University of California, Berkeley Agriculture Johan Six University of California, Davis David Lobell Stanford University Richard Howitt University of California, Davis Charles Kostad University of California, Santa Barbara Coastal Peter Adams University of Florida Peter Gleick Pacific Institute Linwood Pendleton University of California, Los Angeles Noah Knowles USGS Public Health Deborah Drechsler California Air Resources Board Bart Ostro OEHHA Katharine Hayhoe ATMOS Research and Consulting Larry Kalkstein University of Delaware Scott Sheridan Kent State University Forestry Lee Hannah CI/UC Santa Barbara Lydia Ries University of California, Santa Barbara John Battles University of California, Berkeley Anthony Westerling University of California, Merced Chris Costello University of California, Santa Barbara

5. Draft Final Papers • Scope of work developed by the Core Group and approved by the Scenarios Subgroup in summer 2007 • More than 35 papers commissioned • Formal peer-review established and conducted • Nearly all of the papers have passed peer-review and are now available as Draft Final papers • Public Science meeting to be held in April to discuss findings • Final papers will be ready before the release of the final CAT report

6. List of Draft Final Papers Titles Authors Titles Authors

7. Overall Strategy Design

8. Sectoral Studies • Agriculture • Forest Resources • Electricity demand and generation • Coastal resources • Water resources • Air Quality • Public Health • Ecological services

9. Climate and Sea Level Rise Scenarios Physical Impacts Economic Outcomes Cayan et al., (Scripps, Santa Clara University) Statewide Agricultural Production Model (SWAP) Howitt et al. (UC Davis) Lobell and Field (Stanford) Sanstad et al., (LBNL, PPIC, LLLN, CEC) Uncertainty Demographic and Urban Projections

10. Climate and Sea Level Rise Scenarios: What is new? • 6 models—several more than in 2006 Assessment • Drying trends by mid- century • Updated sea level projections higher than reported in 2006 2006 Assessment A2 B1

11. Illustrative Results

12. Electricity Demand: Residential Sector Source: Aroonruengsawat and Auffhammer (2009) 2020 -2039 A2 2080 - 2099 • What is new? • Better Data - Use of detailed household level consumption data; Analysis and results at ZIP code level • Significantly higher estimated impacts--Statewide electricity demand would go up by about 7% in the next few decades due to climate change. By end of this century demand would increase by 20 % in the B1 scenario and by 50 percent in the A2 scenario. Results for the PCM model (low warming) B1 A2 Simulated increase in per-household electricity consumption by zip code for the periods 2020–2039 (a)(c) and 2080–2099 (b)(d) in percent over simulations using climate data for the 1980–1999 period. Model NCAR PCM forced by IPCC SRES B1 (a)(b) and A2 (c)(d).

13. Coastal and San Francisco Bay Impacts due to Sea Level Rise SF Bay Wastewater Treatment Plants Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise What is new? (Not included in 2006 Assessment) • Detailed GIS analysis of the current population, infrastructure, and property at risk from projected sea-level rise if no actions are taken to protect the coast.  • No matter what policies are implemented in the future, sea-level rise will inevitably change the character of the California coast. Source: M. Heberger, H. Cooley, P. Herrera, P. Gleick, and E. More (2009). GIS analysis of roads, hospitals, schools, emergency facilities, wastewater treatment plants, wetlands, and power plants

14. Ecosystem Services B1 Emissions Scenario • In California, observations of species migrations and range contractions driven by recent climate change are already documented • Across all broad taxonomic groups surveyed, projections suggest an increasing occurrence of negative biodiversity impacts • Under certain scenarios substantial reductions of aboveground carbon in terrestrial ecosystems occur Mammals Source: Shaw et al., 2009

15. Wildfires What is new? • More sophisticated approach (e.g., consideration of the potential expansions of the urban/suburban footprints) • Simulations include more GCMs • Potential shifts in vegetation accounted for • Estimated risks significantly higher than reported in 2006 Source: Westerling and Bryant, 2009

16. Conclusions • Negative impacts from future climate change occur in nearly every sector • In the next few decades, impacts are independent of emission scenarios • In-depth studies such as the ones included in this assessment are needed to inform the development of robust adaptation strategies in California • Regional climate change and climate science is evolving rapidly. California is at the forefront but this work must continue

17. Thanks!