National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)

1. National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Fred Toepfer, PM Dave McCarren, Deputy PM

2. NUOPC Purpose and Motivation • The NUOPC partnership exists to enable an enhanced National Global Prediction System • Agencies coordinate R&D investments in advanced prediction technology • Each Agency leverages the total US investment through aligned policies and procedures • Coordinated operation and use of joint system capability • Accelerated advancement of US atmospheric prediction capability • Leverage the broader US R&D investment • NOAA-Navy Investments benefit broader needs

3. Background • NUOPC is an integration of ongoing efforts coordinated by a Tri-Agency management organization • 2005 - Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary operational NWP • 2006 - Reviewed opportunities and alternatives; selected coordinated Global NWP as initial focus area • 2007 - Developed initial concepts and project plan for NUOPC • Initial dialog with Stakeholders, March 2007 • Phase I approved by Tri-Agency principals group (DoC US for Ocean and Atmospheres, AF/A3O-W, and Navy N84) • 2008 • Jan 22: Executive Steering Group (ESG) appointed Project Manager, approved ESG Charter for signature and authorized further resolution of “Stretch Goals” for IOC-1 • Follow-up dialog with Stakeholders, April 2008 • Three Interim Committees established; chairs appointed, membership selected, first meetings conducted in August 2008 • Executing Phase I

4. NUOPC Vision (2015) • AF, Navy, and NOAA partnership to address common operational global NWP needs • National NWP system with interoperable components built on common standards and framework (ESMF) • Managed operational ensemble diversity • Joint ensemble • Most probable forecast -- e.g. high impact weather • Mission Specific ensemble products • National global NWP research agenda to accelerate science and technology infusion

5. Developmental Test Center NUOPC Component System Application Driver ESMF Superstructure (component definitions,communications, etc Dynamics Physics (1,2) Analysis (1,2,3) -------------- Coupler Other Multi-component ensemble Forecast + Systems Stochastic forcing Focused R & D ESMF Utilities Post processor & Product Generator Verification (clock, error handling, etc) Resolution change - Vision: A National Global Modeling System

6. Single National Effort Through Coordination Operational Centers Navy & NOAA R&D NCEP AFWA FNMOC NASA NUOPC NSF Other Agencies Academia AMS

7. Agency Senior Management • Executive Steering Group (ESG): • Executive-level agency representative and associate representative from each agency • Provide overall policy and oversight • Provide resource commitments on behalf of agency principals • Approve Implementation Plan and Concept of Operations • Agency Principals: • NOAA: Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and the Administrator of NOAA • AF: Director, Air Force Weather • Navy: Oceanographer of the Navy • Provide broad policy guidance • Ensure sustained agency support • Provide approval authority for execution of NUOPC Phases

8. Role of the Meteorological Community • Participate in committees defining NUOPC concepts and plans: • Common Model Architecture Committee • Technology Transition Processes Committee • Unified Ensemble Operations Committee • Support national research and development agenda • Support developmental standards and contribute to research needs of the operational community. • Provide external/independent review and comment on committee recommendations Research and Development Community is Part of the Process

9. NUOPC Implementation Schedule FY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Prelim Phase I Implementation Phase II Beta Test Phase III IOC-1 IOC-2 FOC ADOPT INTEROPERABILITY STANDARDS INIT.STANDARDS INTEROPERABILITY DEVELOP FUTURE MODEL ARCHITECTURE EXCHANGE NAEFS DATA AND BIASED FIELDS, ARCHIVE, TRAINING ENSEMBLE OPS, METRICS, TOOLBOX, FOC CONOPS, BUDGET OPERATIONS COMM, IA, HPC VISITING SCIENTIST PROGRAM CONOPS, IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, BUDGET TRANSITION RESEARCH TRANSITION FACILITY (RTF) OUTREACH RESEARCH AGENDA AMS CONFERENCES FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

10. Activity Management With NUOPC NUOPC Executive Steering Group OFCM (AFW) & (AFWA) (N84) & (CNMOC) (NWS) & (OAR) Centers A g e n c y t a s k i n g Common Operational Needs Recommendations Oversight & Tasking NCEP FNMOC Coordination ESG Executive Agent NUOPC Management PM/DPM R & D AFWA R e q u i r e m e n t s

11. Approach • Common global modeling architecture • To achieve necessary • Operating efficiencies • Interoperability • Enable benefits of partnership • ESMF-based • Multi-component system • Multiple system realizations used operationally to generate ensembles • Managed diversity in components to represent sources of forecast error • Products will address mission needs for • Hurricane storm track and intensity • Severe weather (for all agencies) • Ensembles used across all agencies to • Define most likely forecast • Quantify uncertainty • Common ensemble-based post-processing algorithms will be explored

12. NUOPC Committees & Focus Common Model Architecture Committee -Task: Develop common architecture (ESMF) and coding standards as necessary to accelerate transition of research and avoid unnecessary duplication of effort. -Membership from NOAA, Navy, AF, NCAR, NASA Technology Transition Processes Committee -Task: Align agency transition processes to streamline certification of new technology and reduce duplicative recertification among the Tri-Agencies. -Membership from NOAA, Navy, AF, NCAR, Army Unified Ensemble Operations Committee -Task: Develop a unified ensemble operational concept (CONOPS) to allow reliable production and exchange of ensemble products. -Membership from NOAA, Navy, AF, NCAR

13. HFIP Plan

14. Ensembles • Fans of Ensembles

15. Combination of raw ensembles 500hPa height (CRPS) 850hPa temperature (CRPS) E20s – NCEP raw E36g – NCEP+FNMOC E40g – NCEP+CMC E56g – all three 2-meter temperature (CRPS) 10-meter U (CRPS) Winter 2008-2009

16. Next Phase • Prototype Product Development • Joint wind, wave, temp probability product • Joint visibility ceiling probability product • Hurricane Track Probability • National R&D Agenda • Low resolution Joint Ensemble (NAEFS) • NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Demonstration • Navy Arctic Capability Development

17. National NWP R&D Agenda • We will define the tri-agency operational needs • Establish common purpose and priorities • Driven by operational needs • Unify and integrate efforts of research community • Engage: • NSF • NASA • NCAR