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IT Insights, IBM and Working in the 21 st Century Anthony Kesterton akesterton@uk.ibm

IT Insights, IBM and Working in the 21 st Century Anthony Kesterton akesterton@uk.ibm.com. Background & Context. A Health Warning on Predicting the Future.

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IT Insights, IBM and Working in the 21 st Century Anthony Kesterton akesterton@uk.ibm

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  1. IT Insights, IBM and Working in the 21st CenturyAnthony Kestertonakesterton@uk.ibm.com

  2. Background & Context

  3. A Health Warning on Predicting the Future “The telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” Western Union internal memo, 1876 “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? ” H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927. “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977 “640K ought to be enough for anybody.” Bill Gates, chairman and founder of Microsoft, 1981 “I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and, in 1996, catastrophically collapse" Bob Metcalfe, co-inventor of Ethernet and founder of 3Com Corporation, 1995

  4. Digital Natives versus Digital Aliens Digital Natives … The generation who have grown up with digital technology

  5. “Computers are useless, they can only give you answers.” Pablo Picasso (1968)

  6. “A friendly warning. Anyone who doesn’t know how to operate a computer in the coming years will not be able to function in society. Don’t be intimidated. Systems today are not only user friendly, they are idiot friendly.” David Baldacci (1997)

  7. You cannot predict the future because you cannot • predict the future of technology • Key events in the future will continue to be • largely be Black Swans

  8. Black Swans • Rarity • Extreme impact • Retrospective predictability • Examples: • Start of World War I • Fall of the Berlin Wall • 9/11 • Spread of the Internet • Text Messaging

  9. 100 Years of Innovation from IBM • Punched Card 1928 • Vacuum Tube 1940 • Fortran 1957 • Electric Typewriter 1961 • IBM 360 1964 • Moon Landing 1969 • ATM 1972 • Bar Code 1973 • RISC 1980 • Nobel Prizes 1986/7 • Thinkpad 1992 • Deep Blue 1997 • Watson 2010 • Patents, Patents, Patents…….

  10. IT Insights

  11. The Evolution of Science Learning Systems (XXI Century) Era of Modern Science Era of Natural Philosophy DNA (1953 AD) Industrial Revolution Computing (1946 AD) Evolution of Science Platonic Academy (387 BC) Quantum Physics (1925 AD) Newton’s Laws (1687 AD) Astronomy (Babylon, 1900 BC) Mathematics (India, 499 BC) Relativity (1905 AD) Scientific Revolution (1543 AD) Time 13

  12. The Evolution of Thinking Machines Watson (2010) System/360 (1964) Counting Machine (Circa 1820) The New IT Frontier “Within ten years a digital computer will be the world's chess champion” 1958, H. A. Simon and Allen Newell Learning Systems Computer Intelligence Deep Blue (1997) ENIAC (Circa 1945) Abacus (Circa 3500 BC) Antikythera Astronomical Computer (ca 87 BC) Napier’s rods (Circa 1600) Time 14

  13. The Law of Accelerating Returns: Examples 2 Transistors in 500 mm of Si 140 N-channel P-channel 120 Drain Drain Gate Gate 100 Source Source FET Field-Effect Transistor Billions of Transistors 80 60 40 20 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year Transistor Count Moore’s Law: Since the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958, the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has increased exponentially, doubling approximately every two years. Data Sequencingof the genome Adoption oftechnology Memory 16

  14. Compute Power 1969 and now Did you know ? Predictions are that by 2018 a supercomputer will be built that exceeds the computation capability of the human brain. By 2023 it only will take a $1,000 computer to exceed the capabilities of the human brain. By 2049 a $1,000 computer will exceed the computational capabilities of the human race. Apollo Guidance Computer 72K Read only Memory 8K of RAM 2MHz 32 Kg 61cm x 32cm x 15cm 80 Watt iPhone 16GB RAM 1.2GHz, 1440 MIPS 135 g 115mmx61mmx11.6mm 600mW Source:http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1 Million times more memory 1000 times faster 250 times lighter 360 times smaller Sources: AGC: http://www.ddj.com/184404139 iPhone: http://www.apple.com/iphone/specs.html ARM11:http://www.physorg.com/news5139.html Increasing Processing Power Yesterdays supercomputers are today's gaming systems 17

  15. Hypothesis for a New Moore’s Law for the XXI Century:The Cost of Acquisition of a New Unit of Data will Fall Exponentially Frontier of New Value Creation • Corollary • We are at the dawn of the instrumentation of the world • As the affordability improves, people will instrument the world through their purchases Realized Gains: Technology Enablers Punch Cards Keyboards Future Technology Enablers Cost of Acquiring a Valuable New Unit of Data SW + Moore’s Law + Fiber + Wireless Mobiles SW + Moore’s Law + Wireless + Miniaturization & Nanotechnology Sensory Devices Bio-electronic Devices Embedded Manual-Entry Information Acquisition Semi-Automatic Human Assisted Information Acquisition Automatic Sensor-Based Information Acquisition 18

  16. The “Internet of Things” will change how we use the Internetas more and more devices ‘speak’ to each other Number of Connected Devices 50 Billion 50 40 30 20 15 Billion 10 7 Billion 2010 2015 2020 Multiple Sources: Intel, Ericsson, Gartner,etc. End-to-end Internet of Things infrastructure is needed to operate and manage 50B connected devices by 2020. This infrastructure offers huge business opportunities in systems, software and services 19 5 December, 2012 IBM Confidential

  17. 21st November 1969 3rd April 1973 24th January 1984 Timothy Berners-Lee WWW – 6th August 1991 Key Dates in History First Electronic Mail 1965 Invention of the Internet First Mobile Phone Call First Personal Computer 12th August 1981 First Apple Macintosh First Text Message 3rd December 1992

  18. We Live in the Age of Information…… “It is estimated that a week’s worth of The Times contains more information than a person was likely to come across in a lifetime in the 18th century.”

  19. ….. and of (largely unstructured) Data ……

  20. Data Landscape

  21. By 2015, 80% of all available data will be uncertain By 2015 the number of networked devices will be double the entire global population. All sensor data has uncertainty. 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 The total number of social media accounts exceeds the entire global population. This data is highly uncertain in both its expression and content. Sensors (Internet of Things) Global Data Volume in Exabytes Aggregate Uncertainty % Data quality solutions exist for enterprise data like customer, product, and address data, but this is only a fraction of the total enterprise data. Social Media(video, audio and text) VoIP Enterprise Data Multiple sources: IDC,Cisco 2005 2010 2015 26

  22. But how do we use data?

  23. The Internet – The Money Flow ATT, DTAG, Level 3/GxC, NTT, QWEST, Savvis, Sprint, Tata, TeliaSonera, Verizon $ $ 0 $ $ Akamai x70000 $ 0 $

  24. Dunbar’s Number Dunbar's numberis a theoretical cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships. These are relationships in which an individual knows who each person is, and how each person relates to every other person. Proponents assert that numbers larger than this generally require more restrictive rules, laws, and enforced norms to maintain a stable, cohesive group. No precise value has been proposed for Dunbar's number, but a commonly cited approximation is150.

  25. As Technology Improves it Accelerates its Market Penetration Time to reach an audience of 50 million people Radio - 38 years TV - 13 years Internet - 4 years iPod - 3 years Facebook - 2 years ???? - 1 year?

  26. Working in the 21st Century

  27. In the beginning it was all so simple………… “Traditional” IT Programmer Analyst Project Management Programme Management Senior Management CIO

  28. “Traditional” Career Manufacturer Consultancy Industry IBM ???

  29. “Modern” IT Career

  30. But what type of company? • Big Traditional Company (IBM, Microsoft) • Big New Company (Google, Amazon, Facebook) • Small Company • Vocation • Self-employed • Entrepreneur • All or none of the above?

  31. Job Facts • The top ten in-demand jobs in 2010 didn’t exist in 2004 • One in four employees has been in their job for less than 1 year • One in two employees has been in their job for less than 5 years The job market is, and will remain, extremely volatile

  32. 1984 1992 Fortune Magazine, May 3, 1993 In 1984 IBM was a world-leading company but by 1992 it was on the verge of breakup and therefore had a compelling reason to change… Fortune Magazine, January 9, 1984

  33. In the last decade IBM has significantly changed the mix of its business ………

  34. And has hugely modified its working practices 2012 Early 1990’s Behaviour Managed Individual Virtual Teams Shared Individual Knowledge Peripheral Core Knowledge Creation Learning Classroom Multimedia Defined Anywhere Workplace Nice to Have Remote Access Job Critical

  35. “Work is something you do, not somewhere you go”

  36. Teamwork (1) “People work in teams because they have the potential to create something they cannot create alone. By maximising the quality of the relationship between team members, teams maximise their performance.” John Syer - psychologist

  37. Teamwork (2) “My model for business is The Beatles. They were four guys who kept each other’s negative tendencies in check. And the total was greater than the sum of the parts. Great things in business are not done by one person; they are done by a team of people.” Steve Jobs

  38. “If you want to shine put in 10,000 hours.” Malcolm Gladwell

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