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NOAA Technology Summit Silver Spring, MD

Weather-Dependent Renewable Energy Technologies – Status and Outlook. Stan Calvert. Team Lead Wind Technology Application Wind and Water Power Program Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office Department of Energy. November 4, 2010. NOAA Technology Summit Silver Spring, MD.

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NOAA Technology Summit Silver Spring, MD

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  1. Weather-Dependent Renewable Energy Technologies – Status and Outlook Stan Calvert Team Lead Wind Technology Application Wind and Water Power Program Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office Department of Energy November 4, 2010 NOAA Technology Summit Silver Spring, MD

  2. Technology Suite Wind Solar Water Biopower Marine Hydrokinetic (MHK) Large Onshore Photovoltaic (PV) Distributed Onshore Ocean Thermal Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Offshore Conventional

  3. Presidential Priorities Energy efficiency and renewable energy research, development, and deployment activities help the Nation meet its economic, energy security, and environmental challenges concurrently. • Economic • Create green jobs through Recovery Act energy projects • Double renewable energy generation by 2012 • Weatherize one million homes annually • Energy Security • Deploy the cheapest, cleanest, fastest energy source – energy efficiency • One million plug-in hybrid cars on the road by 2015 • Develop the next generation of sustainable biofuels and infrastructure • Increase fuel economy for vehicles • Environmental • Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050 • Make the US a leader on climate change

  4. Energy Mix Analysis Renewables Technologies

  5. DOE Strategy: Wind Large Scale use of Wind Energy 5

  6. DOE Strategy: Solar Distributed Generation - on-site or near point of use - Photovoltaics (PV) Market Transformation System Integration Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Centralized Generation - large users or utilities -

  7. DOE Strategy: MHK Research Tools & Models Test Centers & Facilities Cost-Effective & Sustainable Domestic MHK Industry System Development, Testing, &Verification Technology Characterization & Evaluation Resource Assessments Economic Analysis & Market Development Environmental &Siting

  8. Variable Renewable Energy – Electric Power System Challenges • Transmission capacity • Resources often distant from demand • Variability • Uncertainty • Forecasting • Dispatchability • Complexity

  9. Seconds to Minutes Minutes - one Hour Several Hours - one Day Regulation Peak shaving, load leveling Ramping Different Time Regimes Require Different Integration Solutions Extreme Case Integrating Renewables

  10. Flexibility Supply Curve High Cost Electricity Storage Thermal Storage Supply Side Flexibility RE Curtailment CSP Existing Storage Electricity Storage Flexible Generation Demand Side Flexibility New Loads Existing Hydro Pumped Hydro Gas Storage Thermal Storage Gas Generation Coal Cycling Heating Transportation Markets Ice Heat Low Cost Relative order conceptual Improved Pricing Demand Response Increasing RE Penetration

  11. Short-Term Vision for Power Grid Planning and Operations Normal operations • Improved asset utilization • Enabled market opportunities • Anticipate emergencies Emergency operations • Prevent/mitigate failures fast static Now 5 yrs 10 yrs Time to Implementation Off-line Transient/Voltage Stability Analysis Ratings & Limits seasonal Expanded Resource and Policy Planning Operator SCADA Parallel State Estimation Parallel Contingency Analysis ~ seconds Violations ~ seconds ~ seconds ~ minutes ~ seconds ~ seconds ~ minutes Real-Time Market Operation Constrained solutions ~ hours < 1 hour < 1 hour 11

  12. Technical Outreach • Operators • Planners • ISOs, RTOs • IEEE • Regulators • Legislators • Universities • IEA DOE Wind Integration R&D • Grid System • Operations • Analysis methods and tools • Mitigation strategies • Forecasting application • Increasing system flexibility • Stochastic models • Grid stability • Grid System • Planning • Interconnection studies • System expansion studies • Planning assistance • Generator modeling • Wind Resource • Characterization • Resource assessment • Mesoscale modeling • Forecasting • - DOE/NOAA Project

  13. DOE National Laboratories IN

  14. Solar Energy Grid Integration - PV

  15. Resource Characterization Needs • Inter-Agency Working Group to address weather-dependent and oceanic renewable energy resource characterization needs • Inform national observations network development to meet renewable needs • Addressing micrositing and array challenges to maximize energy production and reliability • Investigate mesoscale atmospheric processes to support advanced forecasting methods • Climate change assessment for impacts on future renewable energy resources DOE and NOAA expanding partnership to address these needs for weather-dependent and oceanic resources

  16. DOE/NOAA Short Term (0-6hr ahead) Forecasting Project 800 km 800 km Enhancing Short Term Wind Energy Forecasting For Improved Utility Operations Motivation • Substantial savings in annual electric power system production costs can be achieved with improved accuracy of wind forecasts in the range of 0 to 6 hours ahead Objectives • 1. Increased accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind forecasts • 2. Determine resultant economic benefits to electric power system operations. • 3. Inform efforts to define national-scale mesonet weather data systems needed to support wind energy forecasting. 16

  17. Short Term Forecasting Project WindLogics • AWS Truepower Team – MESO, Inc., ERCOT (BA), Texas Tech U., Oklahoma U., NC State U., ICF Incorporated, NREL • WindLogics Team – NextEra, South Dakota State U., MISO (BA), Itaska Technology, Campbell Scientific, NREL • Schedule – • Target Observing – Now through 1/11 • Field Survey – 1/11 – 3/11 • Deployment – 3/11 – 3/12 • Economic and Data Analysis – 3/11 – 8/12 AWS

  18. Wind Resource Characterization Projects • Other Resource Characterization Projects • Resource Assessment • Complex Terrain Characterization • Inflow and Wake Observations • Advanced Forecasting Techniques (incorporation into Ops) • Data Acquisition, Assimilation, Networks, Archiving • Climatic Impacts of Very Large Wind Farms • Performers • Government (DOE, NSF, NOAA) • Government Laboratories • Universities • Industry Consortiums (both public/private funded)

  19. Grid Integration Activities Grid System Operations • Integration Modeling and Analysis • Operational Strategies • Balancing Area Analysis • Storage Analysis • Wind Plant System Design and Protection • Midwest/Great Plains RE Integration Support • Upgrade NWTC Research Turbines • WECC Variable Generation Subcommittee Example projects for FY11

  20. Grid Integration Activities Grid System Planning • Integration Studies • Renewable Energy Zones • System Planning Support • Increasing Existing Transmission System Capacity • Renewable Scenario Modeling • WWSIS and EWITS Phase 2 Studies • Concurrent Cooling Models • Generator Modeling and Validation • Renewable Energy Zone Support Example projects for FY11

  21. Solar Resource Assessment/Forecasting • Resource assessment for historical and forecast periods • Bankable solar data sets • Quantifiable risk factors • Data uncertainty characteristics • Forecasting • Sub-hourly – Ground based observations (radiometers/Total Sky Imagers) • 1-6 hours – Cloud motion vectors from satellites can be derived from NWP, NAM or WRF models • 1-3 days – Model outputs from NDFD, RUC, etc.

  22. MHK Technology Types Wave Energy Converters • Wide variety of conversion technologies • Floating or submerged • Near-shore or far out to sea Current Energy Converters • Includes tidal, ocean current and in-stream hydrokinetics • Typically employs turbine variants

  23. MHK Resource Assessments Existing Resource Assessments: • Very basic and incomplete; show moderate resource size Program Supported Detailed Resource Assessments: • Tidal: Georgia Tech – Spring 2011 • Wave: EPRI and Virginia Tech – Spring 2011 • Ocean Current: Georgia Tech – Fall 2012 • Ocean Thermal: Lockheed Martin – Fall 2012 • River Hydrokinetic: EPRI and U Alaska Fairbanks – Fall 2012 Limitations: • Technologies are at an early stage but advancing rapidly…determining under what conditions power generation is technically feasible can be difficult • Lack of data for extreme conditions, survivability

  24. Summary • Administration energy, economic, and environmental goals driving expanded renewable energy use • Variability in weather-dependent renewables require changes in planning and operating electric power systems • Planning, design, and operations for high use of renewable energy requires expanded atmospheric and oceanic information to ensure reliability and minimize cost • DOE partnering with NOAA and beginning broader weather enterprise collaboration to address renewable needs

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