JICA's Cooperation for DRR/HFA Activities & HFA 2: 1st Arab Conference on DRR

1. JICA’s Cooperation for DRR / HFA activities & HFA 2= 1st Arab Conference on DRR = March 2013 TAKEYA Kimio Senior Advisor, Japan International Cooperation Agency Takeya.kimio@jica.go.jp

2. Hyogo Framework for Action Overall Goal: Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters Three Strategic Goals: The integration of disaster risk reduction into sustainable development policies and planning Development and strengthening of institutions, mechanism and capacities to build resilience to hazards The systematic incorporation of risk reduction approaches into the implementation of emergency preparedness, response and recovery Priorities for Action: HFA1 Make Disaster Risk Reduction a Priority HFA2 Know the Risks and Take Action HFA3 Build Understanding and Awareness HFA4 Reduce Risk HFA5 Be Prepared and Ready to Act 1

3. JICA’sSupport meet to the Priority Action • The projects related to priority action 4 are increasing rapidly compared to others. • It entails the best mix of structural and non-structural measures. Priority 4 Priority 2 Priority 5 Priority 3 Priority 1

4. Trend in JICA’s Activity (Number of projects） Majority of JICA Projects up to 90’s : Structural measures from 2000 : Non structural measures Projects by combination of structural and non-structural measures are increasing. 3

5. Typical Disaster Management Cycle & DRR ・Reconstruction and Rehabilitation of Infrastructure ・Mental Health Care Mitigation Recovery ・Hazard mapping, evacuation drill ・Organization Reinforcement ・Establishment of Disaster Management Plan ・Development of Early Warning System ・Dispatch of Rescue team ・Provision of Rescue supply Preparedness Response Disaster

6. Example of Practical DRR Support Understand the risk Adapt for the Risk Prepare, Mitigate the Risk Urban Planning Response Plan Building Codec Transportation Education Anti Earthquake Hospital ・・・ ・・・

7. Algeria Seismic Micro Zoning Surveydamages of building

8. Expected Death Number

9. Expected Bridge Damage

10. Expected Water supply Damage

11. Expected Electricity Supply Damage

12. Practical Support Understand the risk Business Continuity Plan for the “Country” Adapt for the Risk Prepare, Mitigate the Risk Urban Planning Response Plan Building Codec Transportation Education Anti Earthquake Hospital ・・・ ・・・

13. Three keys for Successful DRR Mutual Support Public Support Self Support or Self Defense

14. JICA’s another Support to Mainstreaming the National Disaster Management for Asia • Sri Lanka • Support to Capacity Development for “Disaster Management Center” of Sri Lanka • Thailand • Support to Capacity development for “Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM)” • Indonesia • Support to National Disaster Management Plan & Regional Disaster Management Plan throughBNPB, National Disaster Management AgencyCapacity Development • Philippines • Support Office of Civil Defense Capacity Development Public Support

15. Disaster obstruct Development At least, Build-back-better Development Normal Development Obstructed by Disasters, far away from MDGs Disaster Recovery & Development Disaster Disaster Time

16. History of flood control in Tone River basin(400years ago) Up to 15th Century, Tone River crossed the Kanto Plain from north to south and flew into Tokyo Bay Watarase River Tone River From 1594 to 1654, Tone River was connected to Pacific Ocean by eastward channel Kokai River Kinu River ・After the flood in 1910, flood control measures in upper and middle reaches has changed from “flood control allowing inundation” to “sequential levees confinement” ・After this change, the maximum discharge in the Tone River Channel has increased, which became the main challenge of flood control in Tone River Basin Kinu River Watarase River Kokai River Tone River Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

17. Reduction of flood damages in Japan by continuous investment Number of fatalities This seems rare case in the world to spent so much money to prevention 6,000 350,000 5,000 300,000 250,000 4,000 200,000 3,000 150,000 Area inundated (ha) 2,000 100,000 1,000 50,000 0 0 2006 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 1946 2007 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 Number of fatalities and inundation area have dramatically been reduced in Japan due to continuous investment in and efforts for flood mitigation. Source: Water Disaster Statistics, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure Transport and Tourism

18. What is the barrier for mainstreaming the DRR Development Normal Development At least,“build-back-better” Obstructed by Disasters, far away from MDGs Disaster but DRR investment is much cheaper than recovery Recovery & Development Disaster Disaster How to convince & mainstream DRR? Need to show the evidence ! Time

19. JICA developing Economic Model to show the effectiveness of DRR investment • Economical Model which can measure • GDP change • income differential and Gini coefficient change in Lorenz curve • With & Without DRR investment • Named

20. Differences with/without DRR investment to GDP without disaster Effect of DRR investment WithDRR Investment 　（with disaster） Sustainable development GDP Indicators to evaluate the entire benefit (A) Disaster Event By the conventional benefit evaluation method, benefit of DRR investment is evaluated with collective amount of the society. (GRP and/or GDP) Enlarged view 復旧資金不足による復旧遅延・経済活動の停滞 →貧困の罠の継続 WithoutDRR Investment （with disaster） Stop of economic activity by direct damage ⇒Expansion of poverty Stagnation of economic activity and the recovery delay due to lack of funds → continuation of poverty trap Time By disasters, increasing poverty and continued to be stuck in an increase in poverty, widening inequality, from the trap of poverty

21. Differences with/without DRR investment to Lorenz curve 1 Most Rich With DRR Invest • Better Off Income Cumulative Relative Frequency 45度線 • Near Poor Without DRR Invest • Poor • Extreme Poor 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Household No Cumulative Relative Frequency

22. Show the evidence to Policy Maker Mainstreaming DRR to GovermentPolicy without disaster GDP WithDRR Investment 　（with disaster） Sustainable development Effect of DRR investment Indicators to evaluate the entire benefit (A) Disaster Event By the conventional benefit evaluation method, benefit of DRR investment is evaluated with collective amount of the society. (GRP and/or GDP) Enlarged view 復旧資金不足による復旧遅延・経済活動の停滞 →貧困の罠の継続 WithoutDRR Investment （with disaster） Stop of economic activity by direct damage ⇒Expansion of poverty Stagnation of economic activity and the recovery delay due to lack of funds → continuation of poverty trap Show how Disaster Risk Reduction Investment account for Development Time By disasters, increasing poverty and continued to be stuck in an increase in poverty, widening inequality, from the trap of poverty

23. Deliver as a Computer Software

24. Combination of Structural Measuresand Non-Structural Measures Effectiveness Target Safety Level Investment Investment and Effectiveness Levee Barrage Reservoir System Levee

25. Combination of Structural Measuresand Non-Structural Measures Effectiveness Target Safety Level Investment Goal Safeand/or Resilient Mitigation Adaptation Non-Structural Measures Re-Foresting Flood Proof Life Style Appropriate Land Use Flood Forecasting Early Warning Evacuation Insurance Structural Measures (BasicInfrastructures) Levee Barrage Reservoir System Control, Protection Levee 24

26. JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disasterfrom 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1 • Was there anything out of our mind? The ability to recognize risk and take action properly Risk Literacy

27. JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disasterfrom 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1 • Was there anything out of our mind? The ability to recognize risk and take action properly Risk Literacy

28. Tsunami Evacuation Situation in general • Population of damaged area of 3 prefectures,1km from coast is 460,000, 3km 1.0million, 5km 1.5million • Total causalities were around 26,000 • 460,000 residents lived in the tsunami affected area so that evacuation ratio can be estimated more than 90 % • This high evacuation ratio achieved by legend transmission, by Tsunami Early Warning System and by evacuation drill effort • 65% of casualties were aged people, over 65 y.o.

29. Successful Evacuation by Students in Kamaishi City The students started evacuation promptly and voluntarily, following their experiences of evacuation drills. The students decided to evacuate further to higher ground based on their own observation of situation. (Source: Research Center for Disaster Prevention in the Extended Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Gunma University)

30. Combination of Structural Measuresand Non-Structural Measures Effectiveness Target Safety Level Investment Climate Variability? Climate Change? Levee How to prepare excess flood? or Project is not completed yet Barrage Reservoir System Levee

31. How about the magnitude of big earthquake?E/Q happens with long return periodLesson learned of E/Q transferred to next generation?If no, you can learn from examples • C:\DATA\DATA\日本の知見\耐震実験\www.bosai.go.jp\hyogo\movie.html

32. How about the magnitude of big earthquake • C:\DATA\DATA\日本の知見\耐震実験\www.bosai.go.jp\hyogo\movie.html

33. Variety of Early Warnings for Tsunami in Japan • TV and Radio, emergency warning • Cell phone warning for earthquake • Registered earthquake broadcast service • Loud speaker evacuation order to community • others

34. Every Natural Disaster has forerunning phenomenonthen we can predict disaster & let people evacuate 実写 奈良県 Even debris flow We can predict

35. JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disasterfrom 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 2 • Was there anything out of our mind? Continuous Adaptation to Change continuous improvement to deal with changing risk

36. JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disasterfrom 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 3 • Was there anything out of our mind? “multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense Redundancy High raised road stopped Tsunami

37. JICA’s Lesson Learnt from MEGA Disaster=2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood= • Was there anything out of our mind? “multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense The ability to recognize risk and take action properly Redundancy Risk Literacy Three Principles for No or Low Regret Investment for Sustainable Development Capacity of society To cope with disaster Continuous Adaptation to Change continuous improvement to deal with changing risk

38. JICA’s Mainstreaming DRR initiative • There are so many project which forgot to pay attention to DRR, same as Thailand industrial zone • JICA internally planning to mobilize the process mainstreaming DRR into every JICA project • Set the mandatory process to all project, “Disaster Risk Assessment”

39. Structure of Post ＨＦＡ Post MDG /SDG Prepared by Kenso Hiroki, ICHARM Goals and targets HFA 2 New experiences, lessons and progress HFA 1 ～2015 Items that were not recognized as subjects of HFA

40. Proposing tools for Post MDG/HFA Convince Policy Maker by DR2AD Model Political Leaders Three Principles approach for Low Regret Investment Practi- tioner Disaster Risk Assessment to all projects Donors

41. Thank you for your attention