The impact of projected climate change on Monaro farms.

1. The impact of projected climate change on Monaro farms. Climate Change Adaptation in Southern Australian Livestock Industries Project Doug Alcock Livestock Officer (Sheep and Wool)

3. Southern Livestock Adaptation 2030 • National Project • Uses modelling of • Climate • Pasture / Livestock Systems • Compares current systems (1971 – 2000) with the same system in a projected climate (2030) • Looking for adaptations to reduce impacts

4. What is a Global Climate Model? Global climate models (GCMs) combine knowledge of Physics, Fluid Dynamics and Chemistry to describe how • atmosphere, • oceans, • Land • Volcanic activity • living things • ice • Solar energy affect each other and Earth's climate.

5. What is a Global Climate Model? • Equations are iterated on a 10 minute interval

6. Projections from 2000 How is has Temperature tracked since 2000? Source IPCC IV

8. Related trends?

9. Turning Global Scale Modelling into local projected weather! • GCM,s operate as a broad brush. • Around 200km resolution • Each cell gives a regional scale projection

10. Global Circulation Models Stochastic Weather Generator Converting Climate to Weather

11. 2030 Which emissions scenario? …Which GCM’s? Best GCM’s CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1 GFDL 2.1 ECHAM5 OM

12. How can we assess the likely impact? • Just as with projecting climate change modelling is the only way. • One appropriate model is GrassGro

13. Weather / Climate Pasture Livestock Soil

14. How will plants respond to increased CO2 Leaf Photosynthesis Leaf Water Loss • Increased photosynthesis in C3 grasses and legumes (growth) • Reduced water use • Lower crude protein in grasses (higher CO2 availability dilutes Nitrogen)

15. Climate Change at Bungarby

16. Base Farm System • Merino Ewes • 2.5 ewes/ha • Nov Shorn • Unfertilised native pasture on Stony Basalt. • Poa, Stipa, legume, annual grass. • Sell progeny at 14 months • Feed to maintain CS 2.

17. Bungarby’s weather data past and 2030

18. 1971-2000 GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM CCSM 3.0 Bungarby projected 2030 rainfall compared to 1971-2000

19. Monthly Ave. Temp compared to “1971 -2000” Temperature °C GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM CCSM 3.0

20. 1971-2000 GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM CCSM 3.0 Bungarby projected pasture growth rate

21. SUSTAINABILITY - EROSION Source: FERTILISER: A key to Profitable Livestock Production & Sustainable Pastures • SOILLOSS software - DLWC

22. Top 25% of years Median Middle 50% of years Bottom 25% of years Annual Minimum Ground Cover @ 2.5 ewes/ha 1970 - 2000 CCSM 3.0 GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM

23. Echam @ 2.5 ewes/ha Echam @ 0.7 ewes/ha 63% of years Min GC > 80% 30% of years Min GC > 80% 13.8% of the time below 80% GC 46.7% of the time below 80% GC Baseline @ 2.5 ewes/ha 70% of years Min GC > 80% 13.8% of the time below 80% GC

24. Merino breeding past and future

25. 2.5/ha 1.5/ha 2001 2000 2002 2004 2003 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 Projected profit for merino breeding at Bungarby 1970 - 2000 CCSM 3.0 GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM

26. Annual Supplement (per ewe) 1970 - 2000 CCSM 3.0 GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM

27. Annual supplement fed (per ha.) 1970 - 2000 CCSM 3.0 GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM

28. Wool Cut 1970 - 2000 CCSM 3.0 GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM

29. 1970 - 2000 CCSM 3.0 GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM Condition Score at lambing

30. Reproduction 1970 - 2000 CCSM 3.0 GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM

31. Ground Cover 1970 - 2000 CCSM 3.0 GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM

32. Some other locations and enterprises • Beef production near Nimmitabel • British Breed • Weaner Steer with heifers retained to yearling • Improved pasture (Fescue / Sub. Clover) • Fertilised deep duplex Granite soils • Merino’s west of Bombala. • Self replacing merino flock • Cocksfoot/Sub with some cork-screw and annual grasses. • Fertilised deep loamy gradational soil (metasediment)

33. Projected Rainfall 1970 - 2000 CCSM 3.0 GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM

34. 1971-2000 GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM CCSM 3.0 Projected Pasture Growth at Nimmitabel

35. Profit 0.8 cows/ha 0.7 cows/ha 0.6 cows/ha 0.6 cows/ha 0.5 cows/ha 1970 - 2000 CCSM 3.0 GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM

36. Some other locations and enterprises Merino’s west of Bombala. • Self replacing merino flock • Cocksfoot/Sub with some cork-screw and annual grasses. • Fertilised deep loamy soil

37. Projected rainfall near Bombala 1970 - 2000 CCSM 3.0 GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM

38. 1971-2000 GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM CCSM 3.0 Bombala projected pasture Growth

39. Projected profit for merino ewes at Bombala 2.1 ewes/ha 1.8 ewes/ha 4.3 ewes/ha 4 ewes/ha 3.1 ewes/ha 1970 - 2000 CCSM 3.0 GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM

40. Possible impacts without adaptation • Lower ground cover • Lower sustainable carrying capacity • Lower profits/ha. • BUT • Not necessarily the case for all locations and all climate projections?

41. Possible Adaptations • Drought lots (ground cover management) • Genetic improvements • Grazing management • New species • Enterprise changes • Lambing / calving time

42. + 10% Fleece weight @ -0.5 µm 2.1 ewes/ha 1.8 ewes/ha 4.3 ewes/ha 4 ewes/ha 3.1 ewes/ha 1970 - 2000 CCSM 3.0 GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM

43. Climate change is truly serious !

44. National Southern Livestock Adaptation 2030 Partners Local Cooperators