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OPERATIONAL 2-H THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE FCSTS TO 24 HRS ON 20-KM GRID

OPERATIONAL 2-H THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE FCSTS TO 24 HRS ON 20-KM GRID. JESS CHARBA FRED SAMPLATSKY METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY OST / NWS / NOAA. Details = http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/154173.pdf. OUTLINE. TSTM FCST PRODUCTS STATISTICAL MODEL CASE STUDIES

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OPERATIONAL 2-H THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE FCSTS TO 24 HRS ON 20-KM GRID

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  1. OPERATIONAL 2-H THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE FCSTS TO 24 HRS ON 20-KM GRID JESS CHARBA FRED SAMPLATSKY METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY OST / NWS / NOAA Details =http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/154173.pdf

  2. OUTLINE TSTM FCST PRODUCTS STATISTICAL MODEL CASE STUDIES FCST PERFORMANCE SCORES OPERATIONAL ASPECTS COMMENTS

  3. TSTM FCST PRODUCTS 2- H PROB. AND CAT. FCSTS TO 25 HRS HOURLY ISSUANCES 20-KM GRID (NDFD GRID COMPATIBLE) CONUS COVERAGE TAILORED FOR AVIATION APPL.

  4. STATISTICAL MODEL REGIONALIZED REGRESSION EQUATIONS ON 20-KM GRID MULTIPLE PREDICTOR INPUTS REGIONS

  5. PREDICTOR INPUTS CURRENT CTG LIGHTNING STRIKES CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY CURRENT SURFACE OBS GFS MOS THUNDERSTORM PROB. GFS OUTPUT (SUPPLEMENTAL) THUNDERSTORM CLIMATOLOGY TOPOGRAPHY

  6. 6 2 9 4 11 12 8 3 1 5 7 10 13 DISCRETE AND OVERLAPPING REGIONS

  7. DISCRETE REGIONS OVERLAPPING REGIONS & BOUNDARY SMOOTHING 9-H TSTM PROB (%) FROM 0900 UTC 18 MAR 2008

  8. OVERLAP REGIONS (OVLP) AND BOUND. SMOOTHING (BS) HAD NO AFFECT ON SKILL

  9. FORECAST PERFORMANCE CASE STUDIES FROM 2008

  10. 6-H PROB (%) FROM 15Z 3-H PROB (%) FROM 18Z NO. LTG STRK 19-21Z 8 JUNE 2008

  11. 9-H PROB (%) FROM 15Z 3-H PROB (%) FROM 21Z NO. LTG STRK 22-00Z 8-9 JUNE 2008

  12. 6-H PROB (%) FROM 03Z 3-H PROB (%) FROM 06Z NO. LTG STRK 07-09Z 9 JUNE 2008

  13. 3-H PROB (%) FROM 12Z NO. LTG STRK 13-15Z X HUR. GUSTAV RADAR EST. PRECIP (”) 12-18Z 1 SEPTEMBER 2008

  14. FORECAST PERFORMANCE SCORES FROM 0900 UTC CYC. FROM 2007-08

  15. PROBABILITY FORECASTS 0900 UTC 2007-08

  16. CATEGORICAL FORECASTS 0900 UTC 2007-08

  17. OPERATIONAL ASPECTS 24 CYCLES DAILY (YEAR ROUND) AVAILABLE TO ENTIRE WEATHER ENTERPRISE AND WORLD WIDE WEB PRODUCTS TAILORED BY INDIVIDUAL USERS

  18. LAMP – CCFP HYBRID PRODUCT

  19. COMMENTS LAMP THUNDERSTORM PROGRAM FULLY IMPLEMENTED PRODUCTS WELL RECEIVED, ESP. BY AVIATION WEATHER USERS

  20. THE END

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