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ONR Workshop on Human Interactions in Irregular Warfare as a Complex System 13-14 Apr 2011 Georgia Tech Research Institu

ONR Workshop on Human Interactions in Irregular Warfare as a Complex System 13-14 Apr 2011 Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI) Atlanta, GA. ONR Sponsor Dr. Ivy Estabrooke Deputy Director, OSD HSCB Modeling Program

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ONR Workshop on Human Interactions in Irregular Warfare as a Complex System 13-14 Apr 2011 Georgia Tech Research Institu

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  1. ONR Workshop on Human Interactions in Irregular Warfare as a Complex System 13-14 Apr 2011 Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI) Atlanta, GA • ONR Sponsor • Dr. Ivy Estabrooke • Deputy Director, OSD HSCB Modeling Program • Program Manager, Human, Social, Cultural and Behavioral Sciences and Modeling, ONR • GTRI Contact • Dr. Lora G. Weiss • Lab Chief Scientist • Georgia Tech Research Institute • 250 14th Street NW • Atlanta, GA 30332-0822 • (o) 404-407-7611 • (c) 404-357-1523 • Lora.Weiss@gtri.gatech.edu

  2. ONR Workshop on Human Interactions in Irregular Warfare as a Complex System 13-14 Apr 2011 Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI) Atlanta, GA Agenda • 13 April • 0730-0800 Badges and Breakfast • 0800-0815 Welcome & Logistics Dr. Lora Weiss, GTRI • 0815-0900 Opening Remarks Mr. George Solhan, ONR • 0900-0945 Keynote Speaker Dr. David Snowden, Cognitive Edge • 0945-1030 Complexity - A Diverse Description • Dr. Norman Johnson, Referentia • 1030-1045 Break • 1045-1130 Complex System Engineering Tom McDermott, GTRI • 1130-1215 Case Studies for Context Dr. Ivy Estabrooke, ONR • 1215-1345 Catered Lunch • 1345-1415 Computational Social Science Dr. Robert Axtell, GMU • 1415-1445 Challenges with Quantifying the Qualitative • Dr. Lora Weiss, GTRI • 1445-1500 Break • 1500-1600 Case Study Breakout Sessions • Group 1 Chair: Dr. Jack Zentner, GTRI • Group 2 Chair:Dr. David Sallach, Argonne National Lab • 1600 -1645 Closing Remarks for Day 1 Dr. Ivy Estabrooke, ONR • 1700 Networking Reception • 1730 Dinner Guest Speaker: BG David Reist (ret) • 14 April • 0730-0800 Badges and Breakfast • 0800-0815 Welcome & Logistics Dr. Lora Weiss, GTRI • 0815-0830 Introductory Remarks Dr. Ivy Estabrooke, ONR • 0830-0915 Keynote Speaker Dr. John Nagl, CNAS • 0915 - 1130 Group Working Sessions • Break at 1015 • 1130-1300 Catered Lunch, • Lunchtime Speaker Dr. Neil Johnson • University of Miami • 1300-1345 Working Sessions • Presentation development • 1345-1415 Group 1 Findings • 1415-1445 Group 2 Findings • 1445-1515 Closing Remarks Dr. Ivy Estabrooke, ONR • 1515 Adjourn

  3. Wireless Access Instructions • To connect to the GTRI-CONF wireless network, select the GTRI-CONF wireless network from the available wireless networks. Click on the GTRI-CONF network, when prompted for the security key, use the security key provided below. To access the internet, open your browser, and when prompted by the WEB portal, use the user id and password provided for the conference. • Network Type: WPA/WPA2SSID: GTRI-CONF – 2nd blank needs to be AESSecurity Key: STINGER! • USERNAME: hiiw • PASSWORD: br36jf56 • SSID: GTRI-Conf

  4. WORKING GROUPS - SCENARIOS AND GUIDANCE -

  5. …from George Solhan’s Presentation Understanding ROMO Understanding the Human Environment Understanding the Environment Understanding Power and Influence Anthropology Criminology Communication Sciences Education Economics Geography Political Science Psychology Religion Sociology Others…

  6. MULTI-SCALE INTERACTIONS • Society • Organization SCALE Macro Meso Dynamic and Unstructured Environment Micro • Individual Collective interactions form a group Group and societal influences affect individuals

  7. SCENARIOS AND WORKING GROUPS ROMO Human Environ. • What are the key disciplines? • What are the key elements of the disciplines? • What are the key interfaces between the disciplines? • What are the key interfaces between the disciplines and the other three environments (ROMO, Power, Human)? • How do we decompose these into building blocks so that hypotheses can be posed and tested? Power/Influence Environ. • From the building blocks, can we create a • matrix of relevance across • Phases of ROMO • Power dimensions • Human dimensions • Each Group will Deconstruct, Mix, and Re-construct

  8. SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP

  9. SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP

  10. SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP

  11. SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP

  12. SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP

  13. SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP Multi-Scale Interactions TIME 10 Days: Uprising Orderly or Chaotic Transition? 30 Years: Mubarak Rule What will be the nature of this transition? • Spontaneous • Massive • Peaceful • Popular • Secular (Islam not center stage) PEOPLE Mubarak: Autocrat Individuals In Egypt Individuals Groups Hundreds of 1000s 1000s Society Egypt: 85 Million People World: 350 Million Arabs

  14. SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP Autocracy leads to upheaval. Democracy is best guarantor of stability. ROMO • Generally poor • Sophisticated elite • Well educated middle class • Strong sense of national pride • Unemployed youth (@ 20%) • Digitally driven (internet) Human Environ. 4-5 (Security, Stability, Civil Authority) • Mubarak • Autocrat; clings to power; intimidation • Brutal and corrupt police force • Muslim Brothers • Anti-West, Anti-Israel • 20% popularity, but falling • Military • Control streets, respected by people • West • Influence political, business, & military elite • Help speed transition to order • Democratic Egypt • Beacon to region • Help incorporate Arab democracies • Settlement w/ Palestinians Power/Influence • What are the key disciplines? • What are the key elements of the disciplines? • What are the key interfaces between the disciplines? • What are the key interfaces between the disciplines and the other three environments (ROMO, Power, Human)? • How do we decompose these so that hypotheses can be posed and tested? Environ.

  15. SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY Countering Violent Extremists SadikHarchaoui, Chair of the Board of Directors of the Institute for Multicultural Development FORUM, the Netherlands. FORUM is an independent knowledge institute and centre of expertise for multicultural affairs. FORUM operates out of the frame of reference of the democratic constitutional state, social cohesion and shared citizenship. National Coordinator for Counterterrorism (NCTb), July 2010

  16. SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY Countering Violent Extremists

  17. SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY Countering Violent Extremists

  18. SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY Countering Violent Extremists

  19. SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY Countering Violent Extremists Footnotes

  20. SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY Countering Violent Extremists • Doubts about democratic, political, or personnel legitimacy of system • Socio-economic influences • Ethnic-cultural positions • State propaganda may further antagonize • Ordinary citizens willing to build bridges between cultures • Popular artists and sportsmen acting as ambassadors ROMO Human Environ. 0 (Shape, Prevent, Prepare) • Jihadi Extremists • West is enemy of Islam • Counter West with jihad • Western Governments (local & national) • De-radicalization and rehabilitation programs • Empower liberal Muslims • Civil society (non-state) Actors • NGO’s • Bring credibility • Well equipped to engage in dialogue • Local & regional networks • Islamic and Arabic World • Soft Power – ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payments Power/Influence • What are the key disciplines? • What are the key elements of the disciplines? • What are the key interfaces between the disciplines? • What are the key interfaces between the disciplines and the other three environments (ROMO, Power, Human)? • How do we decompose these so that hypotheses can be posed and tested? Environ.

  21. SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY Multi-Scale Interactions TIME Years Radicalization – slow and gradual process NGO’s – Relationship building NGO’s – Daily communications Days PEOPLE • Citizens • Against extremism • Rank and file with more practical and ordinary motivations • Alienated or estranged; ideologically, religiously, or ethnically motivated Individuals • Civil Society (non-state) Actors • Gain financial and logistical support from government • Must remain independent from government to retain credibility Groups • Governments • Draw on expertise of society and business Society

  22. Understanding ROMO

  23. RANGE OF MILITARY OPERATIONS (ROMO) PHASES Phase 0 Shape Prevent, Prepare Phase 1 Deter Crisis defined Phase 2 Seize Initiative Assure friendly freedom of action / access theater infrastructure Phase 3 Dominate Establish dominant force capabilities / achieve full-spectrum superiority Phase 4 Stabilize Establish security and restore services Phase 5 Enable Civil Transfer to civil authority and redeploy

  24. Understanding Power & Influence

  25. Understanding the Human Environment

  26. Notes

  27. Notes

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