SEARCH Science Steering Committee (Hajo Eicken, Chair) Permafrost Action Team: Ted Schuur

1. Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) AGU Townhall Meeting:Knowledge to Action for Arctic Science SEARCH Science Steering Committee (Hajo Eicken, Chair) Permafrost Action Team: Ted Schuur Land-Ice & Sealevel Action Team: FiammaStraneo, Ted ScambosSea Ice Action Team: Jennifer Francis, Henry HuntingtonObserving Change Panel: Craig Lee Helen Wiggins, ARCUS

2. Townhall Meeting outline SEARCH Program Update- Implementation of 5-year SEARCH strategy- Key near- and mid-term activities - Ways to get involved Action Teams- Overview & plans Observing Change Panel- AON Science Meeting plans- Community feedback on AON- Next steps Feedback and discussion

3. SEARCH Objectives The overall objective of SEARCH is to Understand the nature, extent and future development of the system-scale change presently seen in the Arctic. SEARCH is built around three basic elements: • Observing Change - Arctic Observing Network • Understanding Change - Modeling & synthesis • Responding to Change - Linking Arctic system science & stakeholder information needs www.arcus.org/search-program/

4. What is SEARCH? • Collaborative scientific program initiated by Arctic research community in 1997 • University and government agency scientists prioritize, plan, conduct, and synthesize research focused on Arctic environmental change •  Guided by Science Steering Committee, Panels, Action Teams and working groups representing the research community •  Response of the research community to Arctic change

5. Town Hall SEARCH/ Agency Mtg SSC Mtg Priorities & Goals draft Final Goals, objectives and proposal Science Plan Understanding Arctic Change Task Force Report Strategy ADI Task Force Report Reports White paper Implementation Strategy Plan Arctic Observing Summit State of AON Workshop ARCUS Ways Forward Memo Arctic Obs. Integration Workshop Interagency AON Working Group Mtg Interagency/OSTP Arctic Observations Mtg Science Implementation US AON Coordination Workshop Implementation Workshop Report Framework & 5yr plan Kickoff Meeting 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

6. SEARCH Structure & Activities www.arcus.org/search-program

7. SEARCH’sTripartiteApproachto ArcticChange Responding • Adaptation • Mitigation • Sustainability • Decision support • Education Understanding • Process & scenario modeling • Prediction Observing • AON data & information • AON design/optimiz’n • Cross-sector/int’l coordination

8. Knowledge to Action (K2A): The Task at Hand • Contemporary change Problems in the Arctic • Local, regional, national & international action to alleviate or mitigate impacts • Actions need to be informed by knowledge to ensure both feasibility and effectiveness • Research to query & build relevant bodies of knowledge • The unprecedented pace of Arctic change demands immediateactions • Identify & implement effective research • Knowledge transfer from research needs to be fast • Knowledge needs to be actionable

9. Traditional Scientific Research Approach • Plan: Often hypothesis-driven; sometimes driven by scientists’ agendas • Observe • Analyze • Test/Validate • Communicate How well does this work in responding to Arctic change?

10. Knowledge to Action (K2A) in the Arctic • Science advances without it– but society does not benefit • K2A requires a “completeness” difficult to achieve – Highlighted by rapid Arctic change • K2A includes different types of knowledge • K2A builds links between researchers & stakeholders through mutual involvement in the research and application process – Increases the impact of scientific research

11. K2A Pathways & Knowledge Exchange Problem definition Stake-holder desired outcomes Information bridges Arctic system science Arctic system services Information bridges Data & observations Information products Modeling & synthesis • Local expert • Stakeholder • Contractor • Data owner • Researcher • Government

12. Action Team-led and Overarching SEARCH Activities Action teams; synthesis/knowledge exchange efforts; working groups/networks (e.g., Sea Ice Prediction Network - SIPN)

13. SEARCH 5-Year Goals & Action Teams • Document and Understand How Degradation of Near-Surface Permafrost Will Affect Arctic and Global Systems Action Team Lead: E. Schuur• Precursor: Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network• Partnership with DOE Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment (NGEE) • Improve Understanding, Advance Prediction, and Explore Consequences of Changing Arctic Sea Ice Action Team Leads: J. Francis & H. Huntington• Sea Ice Prediction Network (incl. Sea Ice Outlook & Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook) • Improve Predictions of Future Land-ice Loss and Impacts on Sea Level Action Team Leads: F. Straneo & T. Scambos• Partnership with CLIVAR Working Group • Analyze Societal and Policy Implications of Arctic Environmental Change• Activities integrated into three Action Teams

14. SEARCH Permafrost Action Team Document and Understand How Degradation of Near-Surface Permafrost Will Affect Arctic and Global Systems 1) Improve observation and prediction of the nature, timing, and location of permafrost thaw (CALM, GTNP, Permafrost Carbon Network) 2) Improve prediction of how degradation of near-surface permafrost will influence the dynamics of the arctic landscape (Climate Feedback: Permafrost Carbon Network) 3) Improve prediction of how degradation of near-surface permafrost will influence fish, wildlife, and human communities (Impacts – Establish new working groups/partners)

15. Permafrost Carbon Network http://www.permafrostcarbon.org/ OBJECTIVE: Produce knowledge through research synthesis that can be used to quantify the role of permafrost carbon in driving climate change in the 21st century and beyond ACTIVITIES: Organize a sequence of meetings and working groups designed to synthesize existing permafrost carbon research Formation of a consortium of interconnected researchers to disseminate synthesis results Permafrost carbon network website Enhance young researcher networks

16. Permafrost Carbon Network Activities • Presentations/Networking: • 2011 • American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, CA • 2012 • European Geosciences Union, Vienna, Austria • Carbon Cycle Science Steering Group Meeting, • Washington DC • Center for Permafrost Steering Group Meeting, • Copenhagen, Denmark • Tenth International Conference on Permafrost • Salekhard, Russia • Ecological Society of America, Portland, OR • US-UK Arctic Workshop, Cambridge, UK • American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, CA • 2013: • Bonanza Creek LTER Annual Meeting, Fairbanks, AK • NACP, Albuquerque, NM • European Geosciences Union, Vienna, Austria • DOE Terrestrial Ecosystem Sciences, Washington, DC • Climate Science & Policy, Washington, DC • Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, Tromsø, Norway Workshops: 2011 Synthesis Workshop, Seattle, WA Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA 2012 WG Lead Meeting,St Pete Beach, FL Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA 2013 WG Lead Meeting, Captiva Island, FL Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA 2014 WG Lead Meeting, May, Stockholm, Sweden Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA 2015 WG Lead Meeting, spring 2015, TBD Annual Meeting before AGU, San Francisco, CA http://www.permafrostcarbon.org/upcoming%20meetings.html

17. Permafrost Carbon Network Activities AGU 2014 Session: Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon to Climate Change Session Chairs: Christina Schädel, Dave McGuire, David Olefeldt Wednesday: 8:00 AM-12.20 PM- Poster Session (Moscone West) Thursday:8:00AM-3:4PM- Oral-Sessions (B41O, B42D, B43J) (Moscone West, room 2003) EGU 2015 Session: CR5.1: Assessing the effects of global warming on permafrost degradation Session Chairs: Annette Bartsch, ReginalMuskett, Guido Grosse, Christina Schädel, Hanna Lee Abstract submission deadline: January 07, 2014

18. Climate Change and the Permafrost Carbon Feedback Session proposal submitted

19. Land Ice Action TeamF. Straneo (WHOI), T. Scambos (NSIDC) • Motivation: • Rapid mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet and Arctic ice caps has rapidly increased over the last two decades. This loss is resulting in: • Global sea level rise; regional sea level changes; • Increased discharge of surface melt; • Freshening of fjord and regional ocean water; • Increased iceberg production; increased calving and wave events. • Impact • Local (Arctic) and global coastal communities, businesses, governments • (via sea level rise) • Local ecosystems, fishing and hunting areas, coastlines (freshening, flooding, erosion) • Local Infrastructure (e.g. iceberg flux, floods)

20. Land Ice Action TeamF. Straneo (WHOI), T. Scambos (NSIDC) Goal: To improve our understanding and ability to predict future Arctic land-ice loss and its impact on local communities and other stakeholders. • Science Foci: • Facilitate the establishment of a Greenland/Arctic land ice/ocean/atmosphere observing network ; • Facilitate the establishment of a Greenland/Arctic land-ice relevant database • These tasks will be carried out in collaboration with the GRISO Science Network • Stakeholder Foci: • Translation of the Science • Targeted Stakeholder Activities • Stakeholders are local/global communities and/or businesses/governments affected by sea level rise and/or other changes associated with land-ice change.

21. International, multidisciplinary, open network of scientists working together to address the complex questions associated with Greenland Ice Sheet change, and its interaction with the ocean, the atmosphere and the marine ecosystems. • Objectives: • Foster interaction of scientists across disciplines, methodologies, national boundaries • Sharing of resources (e.g. data, infrastructure, personnel) • Inform broader science community, stakeholders, policymakers and the public • Address the recommendations identified during the GRISO 2013 Workshop (Heimbach et al. 2014 – Workshop Report) • Working Groups • Bathymetry • Greenland Observing Network • Surface Mass Balance http://web.whoi.edu/griso/

22. SEARCH Sea-Ice Action Team Goals • Facilitate communication and collaboration to improve understanding, advance prediction, and explore consequences of changing Arctic sea ice • Improve the understanding of atmosphere, sea-ice, and ocean system interactions through a combination of enhanced observations and process-based modeling studies • Explore the consequences of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean across human and natural systems • Assess Arctic/global linkages • Improve sea ice prediction from daily to decadal timescales

23. Action Team: Ice-Diminished Arctic Ocean • Communicate, facilitate, build linkages • “Knowledge-to-Action” • Three Focus Areas: • #1: Sea Ice Prediction Network (P.I.s Bitz and Stroeve) • Facilitate communication and linkages among this project and other Action Teams • Identify other existing, relevant projects that could participate and augment activities (ala FWI “bolt-ons”)

24. Action Team: Ice-Diminished Arctic Ocean Communicate, facilitate, build linkages • Focus Area #2: • Arctic-Global Connections • Mid-latitude weather patterns • Ocean currents and composition • Marine food webs • Freshwater systems • Impacts on humans (economic, cultural)

25. Action Team: Ice-Diminished Arctic Ocean Communicate, facilitate, build linkages • Focus Area #3: • Hire “Communicator:” Science journalist/educator to pursue Knowledge-to-Action • Facilitator to increase collaboration among Action Teams, existing programs, and PIs of related projects • Synthesizer, digester, integrator, distiller, translator • Public outreach – great communicator, educator • Liaison to SEARCH science officer, funding agencies, government committees, media

26. Study of Environmental Arctic Change: Observing Change Panel AON Management and Governance White Paper AON Open Science Meeting www.arcus.org/search-program

27. SEARCH Input to AONGovernance Discussion • Background • AON Design and Implementation Task Force • U.S. Arctic Observing Network Coordination Workshop • IARPC Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee Arctic Research Plan (2013-2017) • NSF-led AON Management and Governance webinar series: • Lifecycle and horizons • Review (frequency, criteria, process) • Funding models, award structure and management • Coordination and communication • National and international connectivity • Request for input…

28. SEARCH Input to AONGovernance Discussion • Draft white paper synthesizes material from previous AON planning and coordination workshops, with input from the SEARCH SSC and OCP: • http://www.arcus.org/search-program/aon • https://www.arctichub.net/resources/169 • Draft released for public comment in early November. Comment deadline was 25 November. • Additional comments through this Townhall meeting. • Comments will guide revision later this month. • Submit revised paper to NSF as community input to the AON Management and Governance discussion.

29. SEARCH Input to AONGovernance Discussion • Governance and Network Integration • Planning and prioritizing AON activities. • Evaluating AON efforts for performance and scientific merit. • Network design approaches. • Optimization of available resources around explicit scientific and operational objectives. • Develop AON governance structure with clearly defined roles for the research community, AON-contributing agencies and other stakeholders. • AON steering group (research, agency, stakeholder) to provide oversight and guidance on system development and implementation. • Review and implement existing community guidance on AON design and optimization.

30. SEARCH Input to AONGovernance Discussion • Sustainable Funding • Identify funding models that: • Support a broad range of stakeholder needs. • Provide stability for the collection of sustained, climate-scale observations. • Refine approach for reviewing, funding and evaluating the sustained, decadal-scale scientific observing efforts associated with the AON. • Weight network integrity along with component quality. • Develop mechanisms for long-term stability couple with regular, rigorous evaluation for quality and continued relevance. • Develop interagency funding models through ongoing IARPC and OSTP discussions. • Provide guidance on use of MRE and facilities models for supporting a core set of sustained observations.

31. AONOpen Science Meeting • Forum for all AON-relevant activity • Objectives • Review new scientific findings • Review network implementation/status. • Identify opportunities for synthesis and collaborative analyses. • Review network priorities in the context of recent findings. If needed, develop recommendations for realignment. • Coordinate network operations. • Align network data/product delivery with stakeholder needs. • Prepare US input for 3rd Arctic Observing Summit (joint with Arctic Science Summit Week, Fairbanks, Alaska, 15-18 March, 2016).

32. AONOpen Science Meeting • Autumn 2015 (to avoid conflicts with spring/summer field season). • Funding in place. • Venue selection (Boulder, Anchorage, Washington DC). • Meeting co-chairs: • Craig Lee (Applied Physics Laboratory, Univ. of Washington) • Cathy Wilson (Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory) • Matthew Shupe (CIRES, Univ. of Colorado, ESRL-NOAA) • Organizing committee selection January 2015. • Further information distributed via ArcticInfo.

33. Next steps & how to get involved Action Teams will be assembled Observing Change Panel rotation of membership SEARCH Science Steering Committee rotation of membership Working Groups & Networks Hiring of Science Communicator (J. Francis/H. Huntington contacts) & SEARCH Executive Director (H. Wiggins/H. Eicken contacts)