Climate Change & Public Health NJDEP Clean Air Council 2009

1. Climate Change & Public HealthNJDEP Clean Air Council 2009 Leonard Bielory, M.D. Chairman - NJDEP Clean Air Council Professor Medicine, Pediatrics, Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences UMDNJ - New Jersey Medical School

2. 2008: Melting Iceberg’s

3. “How it threatens your health” But the polar bear might not be the only threatened species

4. Climate change and air pollution • Climate change and air pollution have, to a large extent, a common cause –emissions from fossil fuel burning. • The combustion of fossil fuel leads to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide) • GHGs accumulate in the atmosphere, warming its lower layers and causing knock-on effects in the Earth System • Increase temperature has a direct effect on air pollutant in particular O3 formation

5. Climate Change Source: geology.com Source: NASA

6. 20 Band of historical climatic variability IPCC (2001) estimate: + 1.4-5.8 oC by 2100 Central estimate: 2.5 oC increase 19 18 17 16 15 14 Global change factors Earth’s Average Surface Temp (OC) 13 2050 2100 1860 1900 1950 2000 Year

7. WHO estimated mortality (per million people) attributable to climate change by the year 2000 Nature 2005;438:310-317.

8. Health Effects of Climate Change Heat Stress Cardiorespiratory failure Asthma, COPD, Allergies Dengue, Malaria Encephalitis, Hantavirus Rift Valley Fever Cholera, Campylobacter Cyclospora, Cryptosporidiosis Leptospirosis Diarrhea, malnutrition Toxic Red Tides Overcrowding, Forced Migration Infectious diseases Human Conflicts Urban Heat Island Effect Air Pollution & Aeroallergens Vector-borne Diseases Water-borne Diseases Water resources & food supply Mental Health & Environmental Refugees CLIMATE CHANGE Temperature Rise 1 Sea level Rise 2 Hydrologic Extremes 1 3°C by yr. 2100 2 40 cm “ “ IPCC estimates Patz, 1998

9. Climate Change and Respiratory Health • Increased number of deaths and acute morbidity due to heat waves • Increased frequency of cardio-respiratory events due to higher concentrations of ground level of O3 • Change in frequency of respiratory diseases from transboundary long-range air pollution (e.g related to fires, aerosols) • Altered spatial and temporal distribution of allergens and some infectious disease vectors Source: Environment and human Health Committee of the European Respiratory Society ( ERS) Climate change and respiratory disease: a position statement

10. Climate Change & Allergic Airway Disease

11. Risk of dying on days with temperature of 30°C (lag 0-1) vs of 20 °C in people age 65+ 4 italians cities 1997-2004 Stafoggia M, 2008

12. “The severity and duration of summertime regional air pollution episodes are projected to increase in the Northeast and Midwest US by 2045-2052 due to climate-change-induced decreases in the frequency of surface cyclones.” (IPCC, 2007) • By 2050, warming alone may increase by 68% the number of Red Ozone Alert days across the Eastern US. (IPCC, 2007 -Bell 2006

13. Percentage change in respiratory hospital admissions and air pollution across 36 US cities 1996-1999 Change per 5 ppb O3 ( 8-h) and 10 ug/m3 PM10 (24-h) Medina-Ramon M, 2006

14. Ozone effect: increase (%) from 1990 to 2050 in cause specific hospital admission and total mortality Hospital admissions Mortality 50 eastern US cities, summer months Bell ML, 2007

15. Potential human health benefits from reductions in ozone and particulate matter air pollution associated with implementing GHG mitigation measures (2001-2020) (Source: Cifuentes et al. 2001)

16. Is this the solution?

17. Climate Change & Public HealthNJDEP Clean Air Council 2009 Improving Air Quality & Reducing Climate Change Leonard Bielory, M.D. Chairman - NJDEP Clean Air Council Professor Medicine, Pediatrics, Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences UMDNJ - New Jersey Medical School