World Demographics

1. World Demographics

2. What is Demography? • Demography is the statistical study of human populations. • Crude Birth Rates • Crude Death Rates • Literacy Rates • GDP • LDCs & MDCs • Population

3. Crude Birth Rate • Crude Birth Rate (CBR): The total number of live births each year for every 1,000 people living

4. Crude Death Rate • Crude Death Rate (CDR): The total number of deaths each year for every 1,000 people living

5. Natural Increase Rate • Natural Increase Rate (NIR): The percentage by which a population grows in a year.

6. Natural Increase Rate • (NIR)=Crude Birth Rate-Crude Death Rate (adjust 1,000)

7. Natural Increase Rate • global NIR= 20 (CBR)- 8 (CDR)/10 NIR= 1.2%

8. Total Fertility Rate • Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The average number of children a woman will have during her childbearing years

9. Infant Mortality Rate • Infant Mortality Rate (IMR):The annual number of babies who die in their 1st year of life for every 1,000 live births

10. Life Expectancy • Life Expectancy: Measures the average number of years a newborn can expect to live at current predicted rates

11. Population Density: The number of people living in an area measured in people per square mile or kilometer

12. Migration • Movement of people in and out of countries • Emigrant:Someone leaving a country-Exiting • Immigrant:Someone entering a country-In

13. Push Factors • Push factors: factors that cause people to leave their homes. Almost always negative. • Natural disasters • War • Corrupt Government • Religious persecution • Poverty • Famine

14. Pull Factors • Pull factors: factors that draw people to a place. Usually positive. • Free land • Good government • Religious freedoms • Good economy • Jobs • Climate • Good Education

15. GDP(Gross Domestic Product):The total market values of goods and services produced by workers and capital within a nation’s borders • Per Capita: per person

16. Literacy Rate: The number of people in a country who can read AND write

17. Urbanization • The proportion of a country’s population living in its cities. • Also, the movement to and clustering of people in towns and cities. • Urbanization creates overcrowding, lack of available jobs, and poor living conditions in many cities in the world.

18. World Population and Settlement When demographers examine the amount of population growth and available resources in an area, the area is classified as one of two (sometimes three) categories: MORE DEVELOPED OR LESS DEVELOPED Sometimes the areas are classified as: More Developed Developing Less Developed

19. MDCs: More Developed Countries

20. Characteristics of MDCs • High gross domestic product (GDP) • High income per capita  • High energy consumption   • High literacy rate  • Longer life expectancy  • Low infant mortality rate • Developed infrastructure

21. LDCs:Less Developed Countries

22. Characteristics of LDCs • Low Gross Domestic Product (GDP) • Low Literacy Rate • Lower Life Expectancy • High Infant Mortality Rate • Little infrastructure

23. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) of the World • Africa: Angola, Benin, Burkina-Faso, Burundi, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, São Tomé and Principe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Togo, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania and Zambia • Arab States: Mauritania, Sudan and Yemen • Asia and the Pacific: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Kiribati, Laos, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu and Vanuatu • Latin America and the Caribbean: Haiti

24. The Demographic Transition

25. Demographic Transition Stages in the classic 4-Stage Demographic Transition Model (DTM) (Some sources show a 3-Stage model; others mention a new 5th stage) DTM is based on historical patterns in Europe & other MDCs

26. Demographic Transition • DTM only predicts changes in birth/death rates over time • Observed changes in NIR correlate to changes in economic development • Thus, DTM implies… the greater the wealth, the lower the NIR. BUT use caution describing this relationship

27. Demographic Transition • Stage 1: “Pre-Industrial” • High birth rates and high death rates (both about 40) • Very slow population growth • Agrarian society • High rates of communicable diseases • Population increases in good growing years; declines in bad years (famine, diseases etc.) • No country or world region is still in Stage One

28. World Population Through History Billions 12 11 2100 10 9 Modern Age Old 8 Iron Middle Bronze Stone Age New Stone Age Ages Age Age 7 Future 6 2000 5 4 1975 3 1950 2 1900 1 1800 Black Death — The Plague 2000 1+ million 7000 6000 5000 3000 1000 A.D. 4000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

29. World Population Growth Industrial Revolution • Began in Europe 1750s • Improvements in industrial technology • Promoted urbanization • Allowed people to focus on other areas (medical, technology, infrastructure) • Allowed societies to gradually absorb population growth • Limited and/or recent diffusion to LDCs

30. Demographic Transition Transition to Stage 2 in classic DTM (Epidemiologic Transition) • Agricultural Technology • Improvements in food supply: high yields as agricultural practices improved—Second Agricultural Revolution (18th century) • Food quality improved as new foods were introduced to Europe from the Americas • Medical Technology • Better medical understanding: causes of diseases and how they spread • Public Sanitation Technologies • Improved water supply: safe drinking water • Better sewage treatment, food handling, and general personal hygiene Improvements in public health especially reduced childhood mortality

31. Demographic Transition World Population Growth: Industrial Revolution • Began in Europe in the 1750s • Provided drastic improvements in industrial technology • Promoted urbanization • Allowed people to focus on the growth of other professional areas (medicine, technology, infrastructure) • Allowed societies to gradually absorb population growth

32. Demographic Transition • Stage 2: “ Early Industrial” • High birth rates (over 30) but death rates decline (to about 20) • RNIs increase sharply (population explosion); growth rate increases throughout Stage Two • Growth not from increase in births, but from decline in deaths • MDCs=starts early 1800s • LDCs=starts after 1950s

33. When IMR declines, fertility rates drop soon after

34. Declining Infant Mortality Rates

35. Earth’s Population History 7billion reached 2011 (12 years later) 6 billion reached 1999 (12 years later) 5 billion reached 1987 (13 years later) 4 billion reached 1974 (15 years later) 3 billion reached 1959 (29 years later) 2 billion reached 1930 (100 years later) 1 billion reached circa 1830

36. Demographic Transition • Stage 3: “ Later Industrial” • Birth rates decline sharply (to about 15) • Death rates decline a bit more (to about 10 or less) • Growth still occurs, but at a reduced and declining rate • MDCs=starts late 1800s • LDCs=starts after 1980s* • *Or hasn’t started yet

37. Stage Three: Further improvements in medicine lower death rates more; raise life expectancies Measles Mortality, US, since 1900 TB Mortality, US, since 1900

38. Demographic Transition Transition to Stage 3 in classic DTM (Fertility Transition) • Societies become more urban, less rural • Declining childhood death: specifically rural areas (fewer kids needed) • Increasing urbanization: changes traditional values about having children • City living raises cost of having dependents • Women are more influential in childbearing decisions • Increasing female literacy: changes value place on motherhood as sole measure of women’s status • Women enter workforce: life extends beyond family, changes attitude toward childbearing • Improved contraceptive technology and availability of birth control • Contraceptive not widely available in 19th century • Contributed little to fertility decline in Europe • Fertility decline relates more to change in values than to availability of any specific technology

39. Demographic Transition • Stage 4: “Post-Industrial” • Birth rates and death rates both low (about 10) • Population growth very low or zero • MDCs=starts after 1970s • LDCs=hasn’t started yet • Stage 5 (?): Hypothesized (not in classic DTM) • Much of Europe now or soon in population decline as birth rates drop far below replacement level

40. Demographic Transition Modern Population Growth: Medical Revolution • Followed the Industrial Revolution • Diffused from MDCs to LDCs by the 1950s • Did not allow LDCs to absorb growing population • Did not promote urbanization

41. Demographic Transition TRANSITION (Stage 2) MDC (Stage 3) LDC (Stage 1) • No clean water • No medicine • No sewage treatment • Lots of sickness • Red Cross comes in to give aid and help country become better off  • Changing culture • Becoming used to better resources • Number of Children/family become a liability—they’re expensive! • High Birth Rate—don’t know how many will survive • Infant mortaity • High Death Rate • High Birth Rate—still don’t know how many will survive • Infant mortality decreasing • Lowering Death Rate • Low Birth Rate • Low Death Rate

42. Differences in DTM experience: MDCs v. LDCs • Faster decline in death rates • Tech improvements diffused from MDCs and applied rapidly in LDCs post-WWII • Longer lag between decline in deaths and decline in births • Stage 3 slower start in LDCs where economic growth is delayed • Higher maximum rates of growth in LDCs • Over 3.5% peak RNI in Mauritius and Mexico; only 1.3% peak in Sweden

43. Demographic Transition Challenges with the Demographic Transition Model • Based on European experience • Assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization • Many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth • Some countries “stuck” in Stage 2 or 3