Futures Markets

1. Futures Markets Historical Considerations • Japan 1600's • US 1850's • CA Winnipeg • Market in property rights • exchange of PR separated from exchange of commodity • Markets for a variety of commodities • Grains/oilseeds/livestock/sugar • Metals, lumber, oil, Financial instruments • Markets are dynamic • New products, (lean hog)

2. Economic Function Institution price discovery transfer of risk - attractive vs. forward contract • Why/how did FM develop? • Time lag • Long distances – slow transport • Production/sale • Price Uncertainty • prices could change rapidly • little market information • Convenience • Trade ownership rights ahead of arrival of commodity • Pre-determined price

3. Why Futures Markets exist Meeting place: • Many traders with similar interests (liquidity) • Trading rules; enforcement dispute settlement • Advantages compared to forward contract • Forward - specifications particular • Futures: - standardized • perfect substitutability of contracts Efficiency gain – lower transactions costs

4. Market Activity 8% Agr. Commodities 79% Financials 13% Other Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Performance and Accountability Report., 2010. Washington.

5. Over the Counter Market (OTC) Financial “Swaps” traded by US Commercial Banks since 1981 Poorly regulated CFTC estimates this market at $217 Trillion for 2010 2008 market meltdown 2010: Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Act bring this market under tighter regulation and oversight as is the case for futures and options markets Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Performance and Accountability Report., 2010. Washington.

6. Futures: Standardized Contract • 1 – The good: quantity & quality • 2 – Time of expiry delivery month • 3 – Location delivery points • 4 – Price premia and discounts Contract completely specifies Specifying the Good - US #2 Corn Federal Grain Inspection Service (USDA) Test Weight 56 lbs Moisture 13 % Heat Damage (kernels) 0.2 % Broken corn 3.0% & foreign matter

7. Futures: Standardized Contract CBOT Futures Contract Specifications FHKNQUVXZ = Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec

8. Who is involved in trading ? Members - seat on the exchange - floor traders Brokers Individuals Users Producers Speculators Clearing house: delivery arrangements - notices to parties contract enforcement contract integrity Exchange:oversight of trading activity trading rules counterparty to all contracts Commodity Futures Trading Commission CFTC “system” oversight

9. Trading Mechanics (e.g. corn) SELL 1 October contract (short) Right & obligation to SELL 5,000 @ $6 in October BUY 1 October contract (long) Right & obligation to BUY 5,000 @ $6 in October SELL 1 contract: Market order; limit order, stop loss

10. Trading Mechanics (e.g. corn) SELL 1 contract: Margin and leverage: 5 - 25% value of contract 5000 bu @ $6.00 = $ 30,000 10% margin = $ 3000 Price change + 10 cents/bu Margin account “marked to market” Margin = $3000 - $500 = $2500 “paper loss” = $500 Margin call - deposit $ to bring margin to “maintenance margin” BUY 1 contract: “offsets” the SELL contract “crystalize” the loss HOLD 1 contract and deliver at expiry @ $6.00

11. Contango Backwardation Dec 11 Open Interest: 1.3 Billion Bu US Corn output (2011) - 12 Billion Bu. Mar 12 Open Interest 2.5 Billion Bu Source: http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/marketquotes/ZC.html

12. Evolution of Trading Volume Sept 11 Corn (CBOT) Contract Expiry

13. Evolution of Open Interest Dec 11 Corn (CBOT)