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The Economic Crisis, Tourism and Climate Change. Adam Blake Bournemouth University. GDP Growth (over previous 12 months). Stock Markets. International Tourism. International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year). Source: UNWTO.
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The Economic Crisis, Tourism and Climate Change Adam Blake Bournemouth University
International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year) Source: UNWTO
International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year) Source: UNWTO “Another Record Year for World Tourism”
International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year) Source: UNWTO “Start to 2007 Exceeds Forecasts”
International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year) Source: UNWTO “Full Steam Ahead for International Tourism” Subprime mortgage defaults in the US First injection of liquidity by central banks ($43bn in the US) UK government takes over Northern Rock
International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year) Source: UNWTO “World tourist arrivals: from 800 million to 900 million in two years”
International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year) Source: UNWTO “Demand remains firm despite uncertainties”
International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year) Source: UNWTO “Rapid slowdown of international tourism growth” US government takes over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Lehman Brothers go bankrupt
International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year) Source: UNWTO “International tourism challenged by deteriorating global economy” The US enters recession
International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year) Source: UNWTO “Testing times for international tourism” The UK (and most of Europe) enters recession
The Recession and Climate Change • Does the recession mean that • climate change is not a problem? • we will meet our climate targets easier? 7% 12% 1990 2005 2012
The Recession and Climate Change • Does the recession mean that • climate change is not a problem? • we will meet our climate targets easier? 4-5% reduction from recession (???) 7% 12% 7-8% action still required 1990 2005 2012
The Recession and Climate Change • Does the recession mean that • climate change is not a problem? • we will meet our climate targets easier? 4-5% reduction from recession (???) 7% 87% 83-84% action still required 1990 2005 2050
The Green Economy • Short term (e.g. to 2020) • Carbon taxes and emissions trading • High-carbon activities become more expensive • Low-carbon activities set to benefit • Some changes in behaviour
The Green Economy • Short term (e.g. to 2020) • Carbon taxes and emissions trading • High-carbon activities become more expensive • Low-carbon activities set to benefit • Some changes in behaviour • Long term (e.g. 2030 - 2050) • Either: • Technological change (biofuels, green electricity) • Or: • Major lifestyle changes • Substantial costs to carbon
Carbon Prices • Currently trading at around $20 per tonne CO2 • Carbon offsets at between $5 and $29. • Varying projections of prices in the future: • 2020: $20 to $40 • 2050: up to $150 to $200 • 2100: $200 +
Tourism and the Green Economy • Short term • Air travel becoming more expensive • Shift towards sustainability as an underpinning • Greater awareness among travellers • Possibly more offsetting • Long term • Either: • Technological change (biofuels in air transport, electric cars) • Or: • Major modal changes • rail rather than road for long-distance land travel • moves from air to rail where feasible