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Nowcasting in mountain areas

This overview discusses the significance of mountain areas in terms of weather hazards, addressing specific nowcasting challenges and strategies, with examples from alpine regions.

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Nowcasting in mountain areas

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  1. WGNR Meeting, Geneva 8-10 February 2011 Nowcasting in mountain areas T. Haiden*, G. Pistotnik, A. Kann, B. Bica Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) * Currentaffiliation: ECMWF, Reading, UK

  2. Overview WGNR Meeting, Geneva 8-10 February 2011 • Weather hazard priorities in mountain areas • Specific nowcasting challenges • Strategies (alpine examples) • Conclusions

  3. Significance of mountain areas WGNR Meeting, Geneva 8-10 February 2011 • 25% oflandsurfaceismountainous • 10% ofpopulation live in mountainareas • 50% ofpopulationdepend on waterfrommountainareas Terra (NASA)

  4. Weather hazard priorities in the Alps WGNR Meeting, Geneva 8-10 February 2011 • Flooding and flash-flooding • Windstorms • Lightning and hail • Heavy snowfall events Tyrol (2005) Tyrol, Salzburg (2009) Salzburg (2002)

  5. Nowcasting challenges WGNR Meeting, Geneva 8-10 February 2011 • Radar data quality • Radar stationmaintenance Raingauge/Radar, August

  6. Nowcasting challenges WGNR Meeting, Geneva 8-10 February 2011 Strategy: Combination of real-time surface station networks METEOROLOGY HYDROLOGY HYDROPOWER

  7. Nowcasting challenges WGNR Meeting, Geneva 8-10 February 2011 Strategy: Radar scaling and field combination

  8. Nowcasting challenges WGNR Meeting, Geneva 8-10 February 2011 (mm) Strategy: Continuousupdatingofprecipitationgradientsduringevents

  9. Nowcasting challenges WGNR Meeting, Geneva 8-10 February 2011 Strategy: Real-time, two-waycouplingbetweennowcastsystemandrainfall/runoff model (experimental) Observed runoff With elevation dependence Without elevation dependence

  10. Orographictriggeringofdeepconvection Divergence Precipitation WGNR Meeting, Geneva 8-10 February 2011 Trigger temperaturesurplus Strategy: Useofhigh-resolutionconvectiveanalysisfieldstopredictconvectivedevelopments

  11. Orographictriggeringofdeepconvection WGNR Meeting, Geneva 8-10 February 2011 NWP (AROME) forecast INCA analysis – – – Strategy: Use ofhigh-resolution NWP topredictmountain PBL

  12. SNOW-V10: winter nowcasting in a mountainarea WGNR Meeting, Geneva 8-10 February 2011 • Non-classicalnowcastquantities: • Snowfallline • Cloudbase • Visibility • → whenvalleyatmospheredecouples, surfacestationscrucial Whistler Vancouver

  13. Temperatureanalysisandnowcasting WGNR Meeting, Geneva 8-10 February 2011 Temperature, 1-30 Nov 2007, valley stations VERA System INCA System MAE = 2.0 K MAE = 0.5 K

  14. Temperatureanalysis in a Foehnsituation WGNR Meeting, Geneva 8-10 February 2011 2008-01-04 08:00 UTC 50 km

  15. WGNR Meeting, Geneva 8-10 February 2011 Nowcasting in mountainareas • Analysis andnowcastrequires 3-d approach • Surfacestationscrucial (radarscaling, wind, humidity) • Makeuseofenhancedpredictability due toorography • High-resolution NWP helpful, ifusedselectively • Test methods in different regions (→ SNOW-V10, INCA-CE)

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