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James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd)

Changes in population / household composition and commuting patterns of Christchurch communities post earthquakes. James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) August 14th, 2013 Seminar wrap up summary. Content. Community areas concept

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James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd)

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  1. Changes in population / household composition and commuting patterns of Christchurch communities post earthquakes James Newell, MERA (Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) August 14th, 2013 Seminar wrap up summary

  2. Content • Community areas concept • Change in distribution of children by community between March 2010 and March 2013 • Changes in travel to school commuting relationships implied • Changes in job distribution and commuting

  3. Background - MERA population monitoring and analysis sessions • November 2011 Lincoln College • EQ Population and Employment Effects workshop • 26th April 2012 • Public Seminar • 11th June 2012 • Seminar and workshop • 18th September 2012 • Seminar • 5th October 2012 • Population estimates report to the Christchurch Urban Development Strategy partners released • 29th January 2013 • Short lunchtime seminar • 18th March 2013 • Short lunchtime seminar • 3rd July 2013 • Afternoon seminar

  4. Community areas concepts used • For Christchurch City – adopted the Council defined “community areas” and estimated these to 2006 mesh block boundaries • For Waimakariri and Selwyn Districts - a generic national “community of interest” classification fitted to 2006 mesh block boundaries

  5. Christchurch City Council “Community Profiles” • Includes some basic physical, demographic and other characteristics • Includes some innovative hybrid quantitative / qualitative measures • Social infrastructure mapping • Community resilience mapping • Earthquake impact analysis • Describe the “community environment • Summarises judgement / analysis of future risks and opportunities

  6. Address matched school rolls … Some detailed community level tables circulated with this presentation – some summary features in the slides …

  7. Address matched school rolls – analysed by community area • Data used covers March 2009 to March 2013 so far • Residence and school location for children recoded/summarised to “community area” • Data still got some holes in it – school rolls missing for some years … • Residence location of school pupils left out (not many for some years)

  8. Greater Christchurch – Years 1 to 5 of schooling (roughly 5-9 year olds)

  9. Christchurch City 2013 Wards– Years 1 to 5 of schooling (roughly 5-9 year olds)

  10. Waimakariri & Selwyn Wards– Years 1 to 5 of schooling (roughly 5-9 year olds)

  11. Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Burwood – Pegasus Ward

  12. Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Burwood – Riccarton-Wigram Ward

  13. Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Spreydon-Heathcote Ward

  14. Maori Ethnicity - Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Chch City by Ward

  15. Pasifika Ethnicity - Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Chch City by Ward

  16. Asian Ethnicity - Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Chch City by Ward

  17. European Ethnicity - Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Chch City by Ward

  18. Industry Shift Share Analysis • Shift-Share Analysis following Dune (1960) • Where E represents employment • time is t, industry is i and region is j • NE represents National Employment Change Effect, • IM represents the Industry Mix Effect and • CE represents the Regional Competitive Effect.

  19. Industry Shift Share Analysis – Greater Christchurch – Construction sector - business Demographic data jobs – 2000-2012

  20. Putting it simply.. • National Employment Change Effect (NE) – represents the overall rate of change in national employment over a given period • Industry Mix Effect (IM) – represents the expected rate of change due to the mix of industries in a particular area over a given period • Regional Competitive Effect (CE) represents the difference from what would be expected changes in national employment and national trends in employment by industry ..

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