Migration trends and migration policies in the European Union

1. Migration trends and migration policies in the European Union Conclusions of the EEO from Day One and Summary of Background Material MISEP Meeting, Prague, 5-6 March 2009

2. Overview • Migration is a multi-faceted issue; focus on a number of important issues • EU initiatives regarding migration • Main migration trends (intra-EU and third country migration) • Recent key trends in migration policy • Tackling undeclared work by migrants without work permit • Tackling brain drain • Assisting the integration of migrants • What are main challenges? • Main policy lessons?

3. EU initiatives regarding migration • Free movement of labour within EU is one of fundamental pillars – but transition periods remain • Focus on tackling illegal economic activities by third country nationals with 2007 Council Directive on sanctions for employers of illegally staying third country nationals. • 2008 European Pact on immigration and asylum • Focus on regulating and facilitating legal economic immigration, particularly by highly skilled workers (Blue card) and other specific groups of workers (e.g. seasonal)

4. Main migration trends • Migrants active in key shortage areas (pre- economic crisis) • ICT; agriculture; horticulture; construction; horeca; domestic services; transport; retail; health and social care. • EU10+2 more likely to have shortage in skilled sectors (engineers; skilled workers for manufacturing etc.) • Shortage sectors vary from country to country • Crisis is changing position, but some shortages remain

5. Main migration trends – intra EU • Intra-EU migration remains modest • Average population share of EU10 nationals in EU15 countries increased from 0.2 – 0.5% between 2003-2007; share of EU15 nationals in EU15 up from 1.6-1.7%; share of non-EU nationals from 3.7-4.5% • Impact greater on key receiving countries UK, IE, ES, IT • Economic impact generally positive • Short term negative impact on wages and unemployment; turning positive in long term • Some issues of brain drain and skill shortage • Cultural and language barriers as well as recognition of qualifications remain barriers

6. Main migration trends – third country • Third country migration remains dominant trend • Very different experiences from country to country depending on migration history, economic and cultural factors • Net third country migration increased threefold between mid-1990s and 2000s. • New trends include increased number of migrants from Central and South America and increased migration to Southern European countries • Generally positive economic effect • Skills complementary, with migrants entering sectors where demand is greatest

7. Main migration trends – third country • More negative effect on wages of low skilled • Some evidence of “brain waste”; but third country migrants in general lower skilled • Third country migrants have lower employment and higher unemployment rates; greater exposure to precarious employment – particular issue during crisis • Integration measures of particular importance

8. Main migration trends – impact of crisis • Most affected sectors some of those with highest concentration of migrants • Shock absorber for host countries, but not sending countries – context of global crisis? • Some evidence of return flows • Reductions in quotas; work permits and alterations of hard of fill job lists (greater impact on third country migrants?)

9. Main migration trends – impact of crisis • Lack of reliable data, but some indications • Some return of BG workers from ES • Decline of nearly 8000 foreign workers in CZ since crisis; a further 4000 foreign workers likely to be dismissed in 03/09 • In IE sectors where most EU12 migrants are found are those most hit by crisis – redundancies and short-time working; some return flows? • Adjustments made to catalogue of hard to fill occupations ; reduction in quota by 90%; voluntary return programme (ES) • 13% decline in number of work permits issued in second half of 2008 (LT) • Decline in work permits to BG and R nationals, some indication of PL migrants arriving from UK and IE (NL)

10. Main migration trends – impact of crisis • Some evidence of return of R workers from ES and IT • Quota reduced by 25% (SL) • Some return flow of SK workers; third country migration likely to be increasingly restricted • UK workers to get first call on vacancies during recession; some data on outflow from “old Commonwealth” countries in finance sector • Increase in workers in agriculture and family businesses (TY) • Significant return flow of migrants to home countries; fewer work permits issued (ICE) • Decreasing number of work permits (NO)

11. Recent trends in migration policy • Easing of access • Lifting of restrictions for EU10+2 nationals • Simplified procedures to recruit in “bottleneck”; strategic occupations , certain nationalities or seasonal workers • Salary requirements to protect national labour markets or define “high skilled” segment • Unified procedures for work and residence permits (Green Cards) and simplified entry procedures • Better integration policies • Increase in validity (or renewability of work permits)

12. Tackling undeclared work by illegal migrants • More than half of EU countries said it is important issue and have introduced policies • High magnitude • 30-50% of migrants in Western Europe are illegal • 2.8 – 6 million illegal workers in EU (estimate) • D, UK, F, IT, ES some of most affected countries • Causes varied • Economic push and pull factors; illegal practices • Risks for all • Individuals, sending and receiving countries • Routes into illegality • Illegal entry; outstayed permit; trafficking; smuggling; impact of EU enlargement and crisis

13. Tackling undeclared work by illegal migrants • Policy failures? • Understaffing at borders • Inflexibility of rules; bureaucracy • Entry policies too restrictive • Lack of enforcement of sanctions • Lack of focus on push factors

14. Tackling undeclared work by illegal migrants • Policies too restrictive and focussed on criminalisation? • Impact of regularisation (mass or case by case)? • Core policy focus is sanctions against illegal work – trends for most reporting countries is to increase inspections, co-operation and penalties (CZ, F, CY, LV, LT, NL, A, UK) – what is impact in long term? • However, strategic flanking measures are also necessary • For specific groups • For countries with high number of illegal migrants • Trafficking and other illegal practices • Specific sectors with high incidence of illegal work

15. Tackling brain drain • Main sectors affected: scientists; doctors; nurses; ICT specialists; engineers; experienced in building trade • In some countries causes skill shortages and wage rises • Pull factors – experience, better working conditions • Reasons for return – personal • Measures to encourage return include • Information on job opportunities and working conditions at home; promotion of business start ups (LT, LV, PL, R) • Circular initiatives (also ethical recruitment) • Improve opportunities at home (SL, TY for researchers)

16. Assisting integration of migrants • Wide range of measures needed including: • Language • Training and labour market integration • Recognition of qualifications • Housing • Anti-discrimination • Cultural integration • Access to services • Some not just for legal workers

17. Main challenges • Intra-EU and third country migration separate issues • Legal and illegal migration separate issues • What is role of migration is context of • Demographic change • Knowledge society • Lisbon/post Lisbon strategy • Economic crisis • Role of EU v. national policies

18. Main challenges • Key policy concerns • Address skills gaps and labour shortages – maximise potential of intra-EU migration • Address brain drain • Address illegal migration (causes and impact) • Integration of migrants • Avoiding social exclusion • Avoiding brain waste • Avoiding 2nd and 3rd generation issues

19. Some policy lessons? • Migration not only solution to demographic trends and skill/labour shortages • Domestic workforce to be fully utilised in context of current and emerging skill needs • Migration should be demand driven and migration policies should allow “natural regulation” • Better evaluation of policies to tackle illegal working by third country workers without work permit • Illegal practices such as trafficking to more effectively addressed • “Ethical recruitment practices” to tackle brain drain • Turning “brain drain” into “brain gain” by encouraging circular migration • Addressing brain waste through recognition policies • Better integration leads to win-win situation.