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Adapting to the Future: Trends and Scenarios in Accelerating Change Army Science Board - Summer Study July 2008 Irvin

Accelerating Change A Universal Developmental Process.

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Adapting to the Future: Trends and Scenarios in Accelerating Change Army Science Board - Summer Study July 2008 Irvin

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    2. Accelerating Change A Universal Developmental Process I am a futurist and a systems theorist.I am a futurist and a systems theorist.

    3. © 2007 Accelerating.org Acceleration Studies: Something Curious Is Going On

    4. © 2007 Accelerating.org The Developmental Spiral Homo Habilis Age 2,000,000 yrs ago Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 yrs Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age 40,000 yrs Agricultural Age 7,000 yrs Empires Age 2,500 yrs Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770) Industrial Age 180 yrs (1770-1950) Information Age 70 yrs (1950-2020) Symbiotic Age 30 yrs (2020-2050) Autonomy Age 10 yrs (2050-2060) Tech Singularity ˜ 2060

    5. © 2007 Accelerating.org Classic Predictable Accelerations: Moore’s Law Moore’s Law derives from two predictions in 1965 and 1975 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, (and named by Carver Mead) that computer chips (processors, memory, etc.) double their complexity every 12-24 months at near constant unit cost. This means that every 15 years, on average, a large number of technological capacities (memory, input, output, processing) grow by 1000X (Ten doublings: 2,4,8…. 1024). Emergence! There are several abstractions of Moore’s Law, due to miniaturization of transistor density in two dimensions, increasing speed (signals have less distance to travel) computational power (speed × density).

    6. © 2007 Accelerating.org Ray Kurzweil: A Generalized Moore’s Law

    7. © 2007 Accelerating.org Emergence Acceleration: Independent Assessments (Preliminary Data)

    8. © 2007 Accelerating.org Transistor Doublings (2 years)

    9. © 2007 Accelerating.org Processor Performance (1.8 years)

    10. © 2007 Accelerating.org DRAM Miniaturization (5.4 years)

    11. © 2007 Accelerating.org Dickerson’s Law: Solved Protein Structures as a Moore’s-Dependent Process

    12. © 2007 Accelerating.org A Few Tech Capacity Growth Rates Are Almost Independent of Socioeconomic Cycles There are many natural cycles: Plutocracy-Democracy, Boom-Bust, Conflict-Peace… Ray Kurzweil first noted that a generalized, century-long Moore’s Law was unaffected by the U.S. Great Depression of the 1930’s. Conclusion: Human-discovered, not human-created complexity is the main dynamic here. Not many intellectual or physical resources are required to keep us on the accelerating developmental trajectory.

    13. © 2007 Accelerating.org Henry Adams, 1909: Our First “Singularity Theorist”

    14. © 2007 Accelerating.org Macrohistorical Singularity Books

    15. © 2007 Accelerating.org Macrohistorical Singularity Books

    16. MEST Compression: A Developmental Process The Engine of Accelerating Change

    17. © 2007 Accelerating.org Matter, Energy, Space, Time ? Information Increasingly Understood ? Poorly Known MEST Compression/Density/Efficiency is the ever decreasing MEST resources required for any standard physical process or computation. The engine of accelerating change. “More, Better, with Less.” The MESTI Universe

    18. © 2007 Accelerating.org MEST Compression Creates a “Paradise of Resources” for Leading Edge Computation Our machines are stunningly more MEST efficient with each new generation. Our main candidates for future computational technology (nanomolecular and quantum computing, reversible logic, etc.) require little or no energy. We are all moving to increasingly energy efficient, sustainable, and virtual cities. Weight of GDP per capita goes down in all developed Service Economies. Global energy intensity (energy consumption per capita) has been flat for almost three decades in the developed world.

    19. © 2007 Accelerating.org Physics of a “MESTI” Universe Physical Driver: MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density Emergent Properties: Information Intelligence (World Models) Information Interdepence (Ethics) Information Immunity (Resiliency) Information Incompleteness (Search) An Interesting Speculation in Information Theory: ? Entropy = ? Negentropy Loss of Energy Potential fuels gain of Information Potential. A hidden metapotential is conserved.

    20. © 2007 Accelerating.org From the Big Bang to Complex Stars: The Decelerating Phase of Universal Development

    21. © 2007 Accelerating.org From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology: The Accelerating Phase of Universal Development

    22. © 2007 Accelerating.org A U-Shaped Curve of Change: Inner Space to Outer Space to Inner Space Again

    23. © 2007 Accelerating.org Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (F): A Universal Moore’s Law Curve

    24. © 2007 Accelerating.org Inner Space and Outer Space “I ask you to look both ways. For the road to knowledge of the stars is through the atom., and the important knowledge of the atom has been reached through the stars.” Stars and Atoms, 1928 The fundamental constants of nature, such as the mass of the proton and the charge of the electron, may be a "natural and complete specification for constructing a Universe." Fundamental Theory, 1946 Sir Arthur Stanley Eddington Mathematician and Physicist

    25. © 2007 Accelerating.org Accelerating Ephemeralization and Our Increasingly ‘Weightless’ Economy In 1981 (Critical Path), Fuller called ephemeralization, "the invisible chemical, metallurgical, and electronic production of ever-more-efficient and satisfyingly effective performance with the investment of ever-less weight and volume of materials per unit function formed or performed". In Synergetics 2, 1983, he called it "the principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and energy per each given level of functional performance” This trend has also been called “virtualization,” “weightlessness,” and Matter, Energy, Space, Time (MEST) compression, efficiency, or density.

    26. © 2007 Accelerating.org MEST Compression and Inner Space: The Final Frontier?

    27. © 2007 Accelerating.org Recognizing the Levers of Nano and Infotech “The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative democracy], moves the world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814) The lever of accelerating information and communications technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics (in inner space) increasingly moves the world. (Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…)

    28. © 2007 Accelerating.org Disruptive MEST Compression in Nanospace: Holey Optical Fibers for Microlasers Above: SEM image of a photonic crystal fiber. Note periodic array of air holes. The central defect (missing hole in the middle) acts as the fiber's core. The fiber is about 40 microns across. This conversion system is a million times (106) more energy efficient than all previous converters. These are the kinds of jaw-dropping efficiency advances that continue to drive the ICT and networking revolutions. Such advances are due even more to human discovery (in physical microspace) than to human creativity, which is why they have accelerated throughout the 20th century, even as we remain uncertain exactly why they continue to occur.

    29. © 2007 Accelerating.org MEST Compression Regularly Disrupts Efficiency/Cost/Capacity Curves

    30. © 2007 Accelerating.org Our Electric Future: Coal & Natural Gas Gen., Nanobatteries, and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles

    31. © 2007 Accelerating.org Smart’s Laws of Technology 1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do. (Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development). 2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of technological evolutionary development. (Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency, P2P as a proprietary or open source development) 3. The first generation of any technology is often dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity, and with luck the third becomes net humanizing. (Cities, cars, cellphones, computers).

    32. Acceleration Mechanics: Exponential Growth, S, B & J Curves, Phase Change Singularities Anatomy of Accelerating Change

    33. © 2007 Accelerating.org The S Curve (Phases BG-MS) Example: Logistic Population Growth

    34. © 2007 Accelerating.org Global Population Saturation

    35. © 2007 Accelerating.org Trends in Transportation Speed

    36. © 2007 Accelerating.org Saturation Example: Total World Energy Use DOE/EIA data shows total world energy use growth rate peaked in the 1970’s. Real and projected total consumption is progressively flatter since. Saturation factors: 1. Major conservation after OPEC (1973) 2. Stunning energy efficiency of each new generation of technological system 3. Saturation of human population and human needs for tech transformation Royal Dutch/Shell notes that energy use declines dramatically proportional to per capita GDP in all cultures. Steve Jurvetson notes (2003) the DOE estimates solid state lighting (eg. the organic LEDs in today's stoplights) will cut the world's energy demand for lighting in half over the next 20 years. Lighting is approximately 20% of energy demand. Expect such MEST efficiencies in energy technology to be multiplied dramatically in coming years. Technology is becoming more energy-effective in ways very few of us currently understand.

    37. © 2007 Accelerating.org Global Energy Consumption per Capita Saturation (Energy Intensity) When per capita GDP reaches: • $3,000 – energy demand explodes as industrialization and mobility take off, • $10,000 – demand slows as the main spurt of industrialization is completed, • $15,000 – demand grows more slowly than income as services dominate economic growth and basic household energy needs are met, • $25,000 – economic growth requires little additional energy. Later developers, using “leapfrogging technologies”, require far less time and energy to reach equivalent GDP.[1]

    38. © 2007 Accelerating.org The B Curve (Phases BGM-SDR) Example: Environmental Impact of Individuals

    39. © 2007 Accelerating.org Jim Dator’s Four Futures (GBAS) The Key Images/Stories/Components of Emergent Change

    40. © 2007 Accelerating.org The J Curve (Phases LEH) CONSTRAINT: Some aspects of post-emergence and post-limit systems can’t be understood or guided by pre-singularity systems.CONSTRAINT: Some aspects of post-emergence and post-limit systems can’t be understood or guided by pre-singularity systems.

    41. © 2007 Accelerating.org World Economic Performance

    42. © 2007 Accelerating.org A Saturation Lesson: Biology vs. Technology

    43. © 2007 Accelerating.org Eldredge and Gould (Biological Species) Pareto’s Law (“The 80/20 Rule”) (income distribution ? technology, econ, politics) Rule of Thumb: 20% Punctuation (Evo or Devo) 80% Equilibrium (Evo or Devo) Suggested Reading: For the 20%: Clay Christiansen, The Innovator's Dilemma For the 80%: Jason Jennings, Less is More Punctuated Equilibrium in Biology, Economics, Politics, Technology…

    44. © 2007 Accelerating.org Lesson: Maintaining Equilibrium is Our 80% Adaptive Strategy While we try unpredictable evolutionary strategies to improve our intelligence, interdependence, and resiliency, these won’t always work. What is certain is that successful solutions always increase MEST efficiency, they “do more, better, with less.” Strategies to capitalize on this: ? Teach efficiency as a civic and business skill. ? Look globally to find resource-efficient solutions. ? Practice competitive intelligence for MEST-efficiency. ? Build a national culture that rewards refinements. Examples: Brazil's Urban Bus System. Open Source Software. Last year’s mature technologies. Recycling. 30 million old cell phones in U.S. homes and businesses.

    45. © 2007 Accelerating.org Seeing MEST Efficiency and Compression Everywhere in the World Barter > Coins > Paper Money > Checks > PayPal Cities (>50% of world population circa 2005) Working in Offices (or telecommuting with coming videophone virtual offices) Wal-Marts, Mega-Stores, 99 Cent Stores (Retail Endgame: Wal-Mart #1 on Fortune 500 since 2001) Flat-Pack Furniture (Ikea) Big Box Retail (Home Depot, Staples) Supply-Chain & Market Aggregators (Dell, Amazon, eBay) Local community/Third Space (Starbucks)

    46. © 2007 Accelerating.org De Chardin on Acceleration: Technological “Cephalization” of Earth

    47. © 2007 Accelerating.org Likely Network Society Developments: Staggered Closing of Global Divides Digital divide is already closing fast. 77% of the world now has access to a telephone*. Innovation leader: Grameen Telecom Education divide may close next (post-Conversational Interface, post-2020) Income divide may close next. Developed world plutocracy is still increasing, but slower than before. We’ve been “rationalizing” global workforce wages since 1990’s*. Power divide is likely to close last. Political change is the slowest of all domains.

    48. © 2007 Accelerating.org The IA-AI Convergence of ‘Metahumanity,’ a Human-Machine Superorganism

    49. © 2007 Accelerating.org Oil Refinery (Multi-Acre Automatic Factory) Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators, each needing only a high school education. The 1972 version eliminated the three operators.

    50. © 2007 Accelerating.org Understanding Process Automation Perhaps 80% of today's First World paycheck is paid for by automation (“tech we tend, not the arms we bend”). Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox, Theory of Economic Growth) “7/8 comes from technical progress.” Human contribution (20%?) to a First World job is Social Value of Employment + Creativity + Education Developing countries are next in line (sooner or later). Continual education and “taxing the machines” are the final job descriptions for all human beings. Long-Term: Everyone becomes a service provider, “famous to 15 people”.

    51. © 2007 Accelerating.org The Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015-2020 Developmental Attractor

    52. © 2007 Accelerating.org Why Will We Want to Use An Avatar/Agent Interface (“Digital Twin”) in 2020?

    53. © 2007 Accelerating.org Circa 2015-2025: The Symbiotic Age A Coevolution between Saturating Humans and Accelerating Technology: A time when computers “speak our language.” A time when our technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires. A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other. A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes.”

    54. © 2007 Accelerating.org In the long run, we become seamless with our machines. No other credible long term futures have been proposed. “Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI) Personality Capture

    55. © 2007 Accelerating.org Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)

    56. © 2007 Accelerating.org Valuecosm 2040: Our Plural-Positive Political Future Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s Valuecosm (Smart), 2040’s - Recording and Publishing DT Preferences - Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us - Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions - Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice) - Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) - Early Examples: Social Network Media

    57. Evolutionary Development: In Biology, Physics, and Beyond A New Paradigm for Change

    58. © 2007 Accelerating.org Simplicity and Complexity Universal Evolutionary Development is: Simple at the Boundaries, Complex In Between

    59. © 2007 Accelerating.org The Meaning of Simplicity (Wigner’s ladder)

    60. © 2007 Accelerating.org Evolutionary Development: The Left and Right Hands of Change

    61. © 2007 Accelerating.org RVISC Life Cycle of Evolutionary Development Replication Spacetime stable structure, transmissible partially by internal (DNA) template and partially by external (universal environmental) template. Templates are more internal with time. Variation Ability to encode “requisite variety” of adaptive responses to environmental challenges, to preserve integrity, create novelty. Interaction (Complex, Spacetime Bounded) Early exploration of the phase space favors natural selection, full exploration (“canalization”) favor developmental selection. Selection (“Natural/Evolutionary” Selection) Information-producing, randomized, chaotic attractors. Convergence (“Developmental” Selection) MEST-efficient, optimized, standard attractors.

    62. © 2007 Accelerating.org How Many Eyes Are Developmentally Optimal? Evolution tried this experiment. Development calculated an operational optimum. Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, and certain skinks) still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye.

    63. © 2007 Accelerating.org How Many Wheels on an Automobile are Developmentally Optimal? Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device. Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity.

    64. © 2007 Accelerating.org “Convergent Evolution” (Universal Development): Troodon and the Dinosauroid Hypothesis

    65. © 2007 Accelerating.org Evolution and Development: Two Universal Systems Processes

    66. © 2007 Accelerating.org Evo vs. Devo Political Polarities: Innovation vs. Sustainability Evo-Devo Theory Brings Process Balance to Political Dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability Developmental sustainability without generativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, adaptive weakness (Maoism). Evolutionary generativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, a destruction that is not naturally recycling/creative (Anarchocapitalism).

    67. © 2007 Accelerating.org Rise and Fall of Complex Societies Mesopotamia, “Cradle of Civilization” (Modern Iraq: Assyrians, Babylonians, Sumerians) 6000 BC – 500 BC. Mineral salts from repeated irrigation, no crop rotation decimated farming by 2300 BC). Fertile no more.

    68. © 2007 Accelerating.org Rise and Fall: Nabatea Petra (Nabateans), 400 BC – 400 CE (Jordan: trading experts, progressively wood-depleted overirrigated, and overgrazed (hyrax burrows)

    69. © 2007 Accelerating.org Rise and Fall: Anasazi Chaco Canyon and Mesa Verde (Anasazi), 800 – 1200 CE (New Mexico, Colorado: trading, ceremonial, and industry hubs, wood depleted (100,000 timbers used in CC pueblos!), soil depleted (Chaco and Mesa Verde). No crop rotation. Unsupportable pop. for the agrotech.

    70. © 2007 Accelerating.org Dominant Empire Progression-Combustion (Phase I: Near East-to-West)

    71. © 2007 Accelerating.org Empire Developmental Progression: (Phase II: America to Asia)

    72. © 2007 Accelerating.org China Inc: The Next Economic Frontier Annual average GDP growth of 9.5% (Some urban areas up to 20%!) Largest global producer of toys, clothing, consumer electronics. Moving into cars, computers, biotech, aerospace, telecom, etc. 1.5 billion hard workers “greatest natural resource on the planet.” High savings, factory wages start at 40 cents/hour 45,000 Taiwanese Contract Factories 20,000 European Contract Factories 15,000 U.S. Contract Factories

    73. © 2007 Accelerating.org Online Economy: Growing Even Faster than China From 1996 to 2006, total internet users have gone from 36 million to 1 billion, or from 1% to 16% of the world's population. We've still got a lot of user growth ahead of us. From 1996 to 2006, U.S. online retail e-commerce (business to consumer), perhaps the most useful proxy for the growth of virtual world economies, has grown from 5 million to a projected $95 Billion for 2006, with a current projected marginal growth rate of 12% per year. GDP per capita of online worlds like Norrath (Everquest) are 4X higher than China’s. In 2004, Internet penetration in China was still less than 6% of the urban population in 2004, yet by that time China already had the single largest population of online gamers. Key Point: Think of the Metaverse Economy as the future, even more (much more!) than “China as the future.”

    74. © 2007 Accelerating.org Angus Maddison’s Phases of Capitalist Development, 1982

    75. Acquiring Foresight An Emerging Discipline I am a futurist and a systems theorist.I am a futurist and a systems theorist.

    76. © 2007 Accelerating.org Evo Devo Perspective: Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004 “The Microcosm” (the “ICT” domain) Materials Science (“Substrates”) Synthetic Materials Transistor (Bell Labs, 1948) Microprocessor Fiber Optics Lasers and Optoelectronics Wired and Wireless Networks Quantum Wells, Wires, and Dots Exotic Condensed Matter

    77. © 2007 Accelerating.org Evo Devo Perspective: Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004 “The Microcosm” (the “ICT” domain) Systems and Software Television (1940’s) Mainframes (1950’s) Minicomputers (1970’s) Personal Computers (1980’s) Cellphones/Laptops/PDAs (1990’s) Embedded/Distributed Systems (2000’s) Pervasive/Ubiquitous Systems (2010’s) Cable TV, Satellites, Consumer, Enterprise, Technical Software, Middleware, Web Services, Email, CMS, Early Semantic Web, Search, KM, AI, NLP…

    78. © 2007 Accelerating.org Evo Devo Perspective: Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004 “The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain) Defense and Space (“Security-oriented human-ICT”) Aircraft carriers, nuclear weapons, ICBMs, cruise missiles, lunar landers, nuclear powered submarines... (major open problems (security)) Manufacturing (“Engineering-oriented human-ICT”) Lean manufacturing, supply-chain management, process automation, big-box retailing, robotics… (major open problems (rich-poor divide))

    79. © 2007 Accelerating.org Evo Devo Perspective: Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004 “The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain) Agrotech/Biotech/Health Care (“Bio-oriented human-ICT”) Green revolution, antibiotics, pharmaceuticals, transplants, medical imaging, prosthetics, microsurgery, genomics, proteomics, combinatorial chem, bioinformatics… (“accelerating regulation”) Finance (“Capital-oriented human-ICT”) Venture capital (American R&D, 1946), credit cards (Bank of America, 1958), mortgage derivs (1970’s), mutual and hedge funds, prog. trading, microcredit… Transportation and Energy (“Infrastructure human-ICT”) Jet aircraft, helicopters, radar, containerized shipping Nuclear power, solar energy, gas-powered turbines, hydrogen (“accelerating efficiencies (hidden change)”)

    80. © 2007 Accelerating.org Evo Devo Perspective: Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004 “The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain) Social and Legal (“Fairness-oriented human-ICT”) Civil rights, social security, fair labor standards, ADA, EOE, tort reform, class actions, Miranda rights, zoning, DMV code, alimony, palimony, criminal law reform, penal reform, education reform, privacy law, feminism, minority power, spousal rights, gay civil unions... (“accelerating refinements” (vs. disruptive changes), consider E.U. vs. U.S. vs China.)

    81. © 2007 Accelerating.org Evo Devo Perspective: A 2030 Vision Please Entertain this Proposition: “Human-ICT” computational domains are saturating. “Tech-Microcosmic” ICT is not. Human population flatlines in 2050 (“First World effect”). 2nd order deriv. of world energy demand is negative. ICT acceleration continues. Defense, Security, Space, Finance, Social, Legal, Agrotech, Biotech, Health Care, Finance, Transportation, Energy and Envirotech all will look surprisingly similar in 2030, but with major ICT extensions. We see evolutionarily more and better of the above, but now global, not local. Meanwhile Condensed Matter Physics, the Nanoworld, and Cosmology have continued to surprise us. ICT (Sensors, Storage, Communication, Connectivity, Simulation, Interface) will look, and feel, powerfully different, year by year.

    82. Leading the Future Creating, Discovering, and Managing I am a futurist and a systems theorist.I am a futurist and a systems theorist.

    83. © 2007 Accelerating.org We Have Two Options: Future Shock or Future Shaping We have two options: Future Shock or Future Shaping. Future Shock: “Never have so many understood so little about so much of the technological world.” – James Burke Future Shaping: Never has the lever of technology been so powerful. We truly can and are moving the world. Another way of putting it: “Never have so few had so much impact, and so many such potential for impact.” The choice is ours.We have two options: Future Shock or Future Shaping. Future Shock: “Never have so many understood so little about so much of the technological world.” – James Burke Future Shaping: Never has the lever of technology been so powerful. We truly can and are moving the world. Another way of putting it: “Never have so few had so much impact, and so many such potential for impact.” The choice is ours.

    84. © 2007 Accelerating.org MEST Compression Implication: Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change

    85. © 2007 Accelerating.org IP as an Innovation Rate Regulator: Lessons of Bose and Microvision

    86. © 2007 Accelerating.org The Leader’s Challenge: Choosing “Plural Positive” Futures

    87. © 2007 Accelerating.org Wikipedia breeds Futurepedia: A Foresight Vision

    88. © 2007 Accelerating.org A Closing Visual: Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not. Let me leave you with my version of an old Buckminster Fuller analogy. We are all COLLECTIVELY PILOTING SPACESHIP EARTH, and we are coming in for a landing on a vast and alien landscape, tomorrow’s technological world. We don’t have the power to reverse course very much, as we are under a massive gravitational pull, from the slower, simpler, outer space of the past to the faster, smarter, inner space of the future. In fact, the growth of universal intelligence seems to be driven by this transition from Geology to Biology to Technology, from Slower to Faster, from Physical to Virtual, and from Outer to Inner. We have a choice to be aware of this or not. We have a choice to be in Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Guilt, or Acceptance about this. And we have a choice to help others get to an open-eyed and clear-headed Acceptance, or not. We have a choice to protect ourselves for the turbulence ahead, or leave the flight to chance. We have a choice to pick our ideal landing point, or let the universe pick it for us. We have countless daily choices of the path, and whether or not to learn and change as we go. And we have a choice with our attitude every step of the way. I for one hope we will keep learning to see both the Inevitable Forces affecting us and the Free Choices available to us, and that we have the courage and compassion to create the kind of future we deserve.Let me leave you with my version of an old Buckminster Fuller analogy. We are all COLLECTIVELY PILOTING SPACESHIP EARTH, and we are coming in for a landing on a vast and alien landscape, tomorrow’s technological world. We don’t have the power to reverse course very much, as we are under a massive gravitational pull, from the slower, simpler, outer space of the past to the faster, smarter, inner space of the future.In fact, the growth of universal intelligence seems to be driven by this transition from Geology to Biology to Technology, from Slower to Faster, from Physical to Virtual, and from Outer to Inner.We have a choice to be aware of this or not. We have a choice to be in Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Guilt, or Acceptance about this. And we have a choice to help others get to an open-eyed and clear-headed Acceptance, or not. We have a choice to protect ourselves for the turbulence ahead, or leave the flight to chance. We have a choice to pick our ideal landing point, or let the universe pick it for us. We have countless daily choices of the path, and whether or not to learn and change as we go. And we have a choice with our attitude every step of the way. I for one hope we will keep learning to see both the Inevitable Forces affecting us and the Free Choices available to us, and that we have the courage and compassion to create the kind of future we deserve.

    89. Discussion

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