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by Don Kessler Retired NASA Senior Scientist for Orbital Debris Research Asheville NC

Learn about the Kessler Syndrome and the dangerous consequences of orbital debris collisions. Explore the challenges of mitigating and removing debris in space.

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by Don Kessler Retired NASA Senior Scientist for Orbital Debris Research Asheville NC

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  1. An Introduction to the Kessler Syndrome:Collisional Cascade of Orbital DebrisNational Climatic Data CenterMay 23, 2012 by Don Kessler Retired NASA Senior Scientist for Orbital Debris Research Asheville NC

  2. Common Program Issues:Climate Change and Orbital debris • Require international agreements • Program elements include modeling, measurements, mitigation • Models predict a “tipping point” • Thermosphere • Shield spacecraft to ensure planned life

  3. Major Planets of the Solar System:Circular Orbits confined to a planeA stable system

  4. Meteoroids come from Comets and Asteroids(contribute to a slightly unstable system)

  5. Orbital Debris (larger than a softball):Mostly circular orbits with high inclinations A very unstable system

  6. Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 CollisionIridium Constellation of 66 communication satellites

  7. Iridium/Cosmos Collision Cosmos 2251 Debris Iridium 33 Debris One year after the Iridium/Cosmos collision, about 2000 fragments cataloged, as longitudes of nodes randomize

  8. Number of Cataloged Objects in Earth Orbit Anti-satellite Test plus the Iridium/Cosmos Collision doubled fragment count Iridium/Cosmos China Anti-satellite Year 1981: Upper stage explosion mitigation 1996: Began 25-yr Rule

  9. Predicted Collisions in LEOCompared to observed collisions Historical Business as Usual Post-Mission Disposal No Future Launches Data (excludes Cerise) Iridium 33 & Cosmos 2251 Thor-Burner upper stage Cosmos 1934

  10. Single collision between satellites produces: 10,000 fragments size of ¾” cylinder in this test 100,000 smaller fragments but large enough to significantly damage most spacecraft Damage to 8” x 8” x 4” Aluminum Block hit at orbital speeds with ¾ inch plastic cylinder

  11. Every returned spacecraft surfacehas craters from orbital debris impacts Orbital debris impacts on returned spacecraft surfaces exceed the number of meteoroid impacts. Materials melted into the craters include aluminum, titanium, paint, copper, silicone, circuit board, sodium-potassium STS-118 Radiator panel Puncture 2 mm titanium-rich debris Entry hole 7 mm Exit hole 14 mm

  12. Intact Rocket Bodies and Payloads:Regions of Instability in 1999 10-7 10-8 10-9 10-10 Unstable Runaway Runaway 1999 Catalogue of intact objects Spatial Density, Number/km3 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Altitude, Km 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Altitude, Km

  13. Geosynchronous Orbit:Less of an immediate problemBeginning of a long-term problem

  14. Program Elements • Modeling: Debris sources and sinks • Measurements: Ground and in-situ • Spacecraft shielding: Design and testing • Mitigation1: Minimize creation of debris • Collision avoidance: Against tracked objects • Reentry ground hazard: Largest tracked objects • Remediation2: Remove debris from orbit ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1Supported in 1988 National Space Policy 2Added in 2010 National Space Policy

  15. Summary • Collisions in orbit between spacecraft are the visible symptom of deeper problems • Runaway increase in hazardous fragments • Increasing cost of space related activities • Loss of critical satellites • Mitigation has proven insufficient • Remediation required • Interdisciplinary fields of study • Scientist and Engineers • Operations • Legal • Political • Coordination required between fields of study

  16. End No plan to use remaining slides

  17. Pre-Space Age Knowledge of Meteoroids Potential Hazard to Spacecraft • Earth-based observations • -Comets • -Asteroids • -Meteors • -Meteorites • -Zodiacal Light • Potential hazard for spacecraft • -Measured Flux • -Uncertainty in size • -Flight experiments required • -Hazard proved to be manageable 1966 Leonid meteor shower

  18. Major Accomplishments over the last 30 years • Measured the environment very small sizes • Established international organization (IADC) • UN acceptance of Debris Mitigation Guidelines • Minimize possibility of explosions in orbit • Require reentry within 25 years after operations • Concluded current debris environment has exceeded a “critical density” • Current National Space Policy expands debris activities

  19. Necessary Remedial Action to Stabilize LEO • The only way to reduce or eliminate the instability is to reduce the number of intact objects • NASA study concludes removing between 5 and 10 massive objects per year is sufficient • Could be accomplished with fewer than 5 to 10 additional launches per year over the current average of 75. • 2010 President’s Space Policy: Pursue research and development of technologies and techniques …. to mitigate and remove on-orbit debris…

  20. Techniques to Remove Debris • Debris Sweeper: Debris comes to Remover -Eliminates debris that happens to pass within 20 km -40 km diameter natural Earth moon -Very large “catcher” that can quickly maneuver 20 km -Space or Ground based laser • Debris Grabber: Remover goes to debris -Small spacecraft retrieves one intact object per launch -Large spacecraft retrieves several intact objects with similar inclinations per launch -Tethers

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