Pengelolaan Resiko Rantai Pasok

1. Pengelolaan Resiko Rantai Pasok Dr.Eng. Taufik Djatna

2. Outline • Konsep • Model Sistem RPA • Faktor Resiko RPA • Pendekatan Mengidentifikasi Resiko Rantai Pasok • Resiko Pemilihan Lokasi/Mitra • Resiko Produksi/Logistik Rantai Pasok Eksternal • Resiko Produksi/Logistik Rantai Pasok Internal

3. Konsep Resiko Rantai Pasok Fokus RPA hingga tahun 2000 Fokus RPA Tradisional Mutu Mutu Leanness Responsiveness Waktu Biaya Waktu Biaya Agility Mutu Fokus RPA saat ini (2005-) Leanness Responsiveness Resiko Waktu Biaya Agility

4. Model Sistem Pasokan Rantai Pasok • Deterministic analytical: • mathematical programming models (e.g. linear, nonlinear, integer, dynamic programming). Applications tosupply chain include scheduling production, distribution planning, raw materialsourcing, facility location, inventory level setting, replenishment timingand order quantity specification, and resource balancing • Stochastic analytical models: • at least one of the variables involvesuncertainty, and is assumed to follow a particular probability distribution.Examples of supply chain applications include inventory and productionmanagement problems, where demand and yield are represented as random variables respectively.

5. Economic models • tend to be focused on buyer-supplier relationships.These models have a traditional base in determining the financial risks toeither sellers or buyers, given various assumptions. • Simulation models • (usually) data driven representations facilitatedby sampling from specified probability distributions

6. Faktor Resiko dalam RPA • Increased globalization through outsourcing, which elongates end-to-end supply chains • Additional regulatory compliance imposed by government entities, further complicating international trade • Increased levels of economic uncertainty, which create additional variabilityin demand and supply and make it more difficult to accomplish demandsupply balancing • Shorter product lifecycles and rapid rates of technology change, which increase inventory obsolescence • Demanding customers who have created additional time-to-marketpressures by requiring better on-time delivery, order fill rates and overall service level efficiencies. • Supply side capacity constraints, making it more difficult to meet demand requirements, and • Natural disasters and external environmental

7. KategoriSupply Chain Risk • Operational/ Technological Forecast errors, component/material shortages, capacity constraints,quality problems, machine failure/downtime, software failure, imperfectyields, efficiency, process/product changes, property losses (dueto theft, accidents, etc.), transportation risks (delays, damage from handling/transportation, re-routing, etc.), storage risks (incomplete customer order, insufficient holding space, etc.), budget overrun,emergence of a disruptive technology, contract terms (minimum and maximum limit on orders), communication/IT disruptions

8. Social Labor shortages, loss of key personnel, strikes, accidents,absenteeism, human errors, organizational errors, union/laborrelations, negative media coverage (reputation risk), perceived quality, coincidence of problems with holidays, fraud, sabotage, pillage, acts ofterrorism, malfeasance, decreased labor productivity

9. Natural/Hazard Fire, wild fire, severe thunderstorm, flood, monsoon, blizzard, ice storm, drought, heat wave, tornado, hurricane, typhoon, earthquake, tsunami, epidemic, famine, avalanche

10. Economy/Competition Interest rate fluctuation, exchange rate fluctuation, commodity pricefluctuation, price and incentive wars, bankruptcy of partners, stock market collapse, global economic recession

11. Legal/Political Liabilities, law suits, governmental incentives /restrictions, new regulations, lobbying from customer groups, instability overseas,confiscations abroad, war, tax structures, customs risks (inspection delay, missing data on documentation)

12. Pendekatan Mengidentifikasi Resiko Rantai Pasok • The study first identified risks by mapping the business processes neededin order to procure parts, and assemble and deliver machines. • The human, capital, and informational resources required by theseprocesses were then mapped to indicate how they supported component activities and decisions. • A series of interviews with key managers and engineers identified key riskfactors and root causes, which were arranged into an influence diagramindicating the cause-effect chains of failures and disruptions that impactsupply chain performance. Root causes of risk included both sources ofcatastrophic risk as well as sources of everyday problems affecting theefficiency of the supply chain operation. • These influencing factors were further integrated into the businessprocess and resource maps to pinpoint the exact location and meansby which disruptions propagate into the supply chain.

13. Resiko Pemilihan Lokasi/Mitra

14. Resiko Produksi/Logistik RPA Eksternal

15. Resiko Produksi/Logistik RPA Internal

16. Pendekatan Dasar Menanggulangi Dampak SCR • Pengelolaan Permintaan : Koordinasi dengan mitra downstream untuk mempengaruhi demand agar menguntungkan • Pengelolaan Produk: Mengubah desain produk dan proses agar bahan baku lebih lancar dalam rantai pasok • Pengelolaan Informasi: Koordinasi dan kolaborasi di antara mitra rantai pasok dengan saling bagi informasi • Pengelolaan Pasokan : kolaborasi dengan upstream untuk memastikan efisiensi dan efektifitas pasokan bahan

17. Lima tahap formulasirencana strategi resikodanimplementasi • Understand the Risk Environment: • Review the management model andunderstand the current business strategy. • Review related documentation (operations, contracts) and the compliance documentation (OSHA, HIPAA, ISO, etc.). • Review risk-related metrics (accidents, auditor reports, insuranceclaims, contract claims, disasters, demand spikes).

18. Identify and Assess Current Risk: • Evaluate current process, and external factors,highlighting specific threats and assess risk maturity. • Evaluate currentprocesses. • Validate and improve existing metrics. • Identify opportunities forrisk management improvement. • Identify specific external influences on theprocess (identify trigger, resolution, and point of contact). • Identify key drivers of current risk maturity.

19. Quantify and Prioritize Risk: • Measure the likelihood or impact and ease ofdetection. • Weight risk according to risk factors and financial implications. • Estimate costs and investments. • Develop Risk Mitigation Strategy and Business Case: • Develop improvementrecommendations and risk mitigation plans for the enterprise and extendedsupply chain. • Develop cost/benefit analysis. • Develop Implementation Roadmap: • Select a course of action. • Develop tentativelist of implementation partners. • Generate initial timeline.

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