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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation

Charles W. Rice Soil Microbiologist Department of Agronomy Lead Author, IPCC AR4 WGIII. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. K-State Research and Extension. 400. Human perturbation. 350. 300. Atmospheric CO 2 (ppmv). 250. 200. 150. -450.

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation

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  1. Charles W. Rice Soil Microbiologist Department of Agronomy Lead Author, IPCC AR4 WGIII Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation K-State Research and Extension

  2. 400 Human perturbation 350 300 Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv) 250 200 150 -450 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 Thousands of years Source: Petit et al. 1999

  3. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007

  4. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007

  5. Impact

  6. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

  7. Initially increased agricultural productivity in some mid-latitude regions & reduction in the tropics and sub-tropics even with warming of a few degrees 2020s 2050s 2080s

  8. North America: Key messages • A wide range of impacts of climate change are now clearly documented • Risks from future impacts concentrated on extreme events • Vulnerable people and activities (including ag) in almost every region • Increase number, intensity, and duration of heat waves • Changes in precipitation patterns • Water resources will constrain potential crop yield increases and increase competition for water resources • Warmer nights and winters may increase pest and disease in agriculture • Opportunities for improving adaptation • Opportunities for mitigation IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

  9. Mitigation

  10. Stabilizing CO2 concentrations means… • Changing the global energy system • Developing a least-cost technology portfolio Tg C yr-1 Filling TheTechnology Gap Slide courtesy of Jae Edmonds

  11. Each “De-carbonizing Wedge” represents 25 billion tons of carbon avoided or reduced. 7 wedges needed to reach stabilize carbon emissions Source: Socolow & Pacala; Sci. Am., Sept. 2006

  12. Global economic mitigation potential for different sectors at different carbon prices IPCC, 2007

  13. Agriculture • A large proportion of the mitigation potential of agriculture (excluding bioenergy) arises from soil C sequestration, which has strong synergies with sustainable agriculture and generally reduces vulnerability to climate change. • Agricultural practices collectively can make a significant contribution at low cost • By increasing soil carbon sinks, • By reducing GHG emissions, • By contributing biomass feedstocks for energy use IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007

  14. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007

  15. Climate Soils Management CO2 Sunlight Harvestable Yield Soil Microbial Activity Soil Organic Matter (C)

  16. No-Tillage Cropping Systems Conservation Agriculture • Restores soil carbon • Conserves moisture • Saves fuel • Saves labor • Lowers machinery costs • Reduces erosion • Improved soil fertility • Controls weed • Planting on the best date • Improves wildlife habitat

  17. CCX voluntary offset market

  18. Contracts120,000 acres in KS, >2 million acres in the USCCX Carbon Offset Prices

  19. Relative Yield, Economic, and Sequestration Characteristics for adopting NT continuous Corn, NE Kansas 10% additional income Pendell et al., 2006

  20. Gaseous Emissions Environmental Services Microbial Activity Soil Structure Soil Biodiversity Water Erosion & Availability Soil Organic Carbon Nutrient Cycling Plant Growth Yield Sustainability

  21. Additional mitigation from agriculture • Additional mitigation of 770 Mt CO2-eq. yr-1 could be achieved by 2030 by improved energy efficiency in agriculture • Feed-stocks for bio-energy. Smith et al. (2007a)

  22. Biofuel Production Concerns • Changes in land use, and potential conversion of conservation lands to biomass production. • Impact on soil carbon • Changes in water needs, availability, and water quality impacts. • Competition for grains and oilseeds and impacts on food and feed availability and prices. • Lifecycle analyses and GHG/C accounting for biofuels production. • Assessing co-benefits of biofuel production, such as soil quality, reduced erosion from marginal crop lands, and enhanced wildlife benefits.

  23. So What is the Potential? • Globally • It is estimated that soil has the potential to offset 30% of the annual CO2 emissions • United States • It is estimated that soil has the potential to offset 15% of the annual CO2 emissions • Additional options for N2O and CH4 • The economic potential is ~30-50% of that value

  24. Conclusions: Mitigation • Agriculture has a significant role to play in climate mitigation • Agriculture is cost competitive with mitigation options in other sectors • Many mitigation options improve sustainability • Bio-energy crops and improved energy efficiency in agriculture can contribute to further climate mitigation • Agricultural mitigation should be part of a portfolio of mitigation measures to reduce emissions / increase sinks while new, low carbon energy technologies are developed.

  25. Chuck Rice Phone: 785-532-7217 Cell: 785-587-7215 cwrice@ksu.edu • Websites www.soilcarboncenter.k-state.edu/ www.casmgs.colostate.edu/ K-State Research and Extension

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