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2.4.4

2.4.4. Great Lakes Ecological Models for Risk Assessment. Mike Weimer. Introduction. This project will be conducted to assess risk of bighead and silver carp (Asian carps) establishment and impacts in Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Erie Utilize habitat data, prey availability, other parameters

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2.4.4

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  1. 2.4.4 Great Lakes Ecological Models for Risk Assessment Mike Weimer

  2. Introduction • This project will be conducted to assess risk of bighead and silver carp (Asian carps) establishment and impacts in Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Erie • Utilize habitat data, prey availability, other parameters • Collaborating with NOAA/GLERL on bioenergetics modeling (ATLANTIS, etc)

  3. Goals • Assess the ability of bighead and silver carps to survive and grow • Using ambient plankton and benthos prey densities) in Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Erie • Determine the potential impacts of Asian carps on population dynamics and biomass of important native and state-managed fishes

  4. Goals • Develop draft mitigation plans, if the worst scenario occurs • Establishment of Asian carps in the Great Lakes

  5. Objectives • Predict Asian carp’s impacts on food webs, key fish species and fisheries in different Great Lakes environments. • Predict in which Great Lakes habitats Asian carps can successfully grow, survive and reproduce. • Develop draft mitigation plans

  6. Current Knowledge • No ecological models exist that describe quantitative, predicted impacts of Asian carps on Great Lakes fishes

  7. Current Management Situation • No draft mitigation plans have been developed to guide management decision making • If Asian carps become established

  8. Future Plans • Modeling • Finalize collaborative work planning with NOAA • Conduct modeling • Bioenergetics and ATLANTIS

  9. Future Plans • Mitigation Planning • Convene meetings of experts from States, USGS, NOAA, Tribes • Synthesize expert opinion on projected impacts, by Lake region and food web component • Use expert opinion to draft mitigation plan • Revise mitigation plan, after models are completed, and simulations run

  10. Technological or Other Hurdles • Assembling various data sets for model construction • Technical complexities of ecosystem modeling

  11. Data Gaps • Gaps • Some basic biological information on bighead and silver carps • Planned Resolution • Translate Chinese scientific literature

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