Smart & Green Family Policy for a Strong Saskatchewan Economy

1. Smart & Green Family Policy for a Strong Saskatchewan Economy Dr. Paul Kershaw University of British Columbia Human Early Learning Partnership November 15, 2010 North Battleford & Saskatoon, Saskatchewan

2. of kindergarten children are vulnerable in Saskatchewan. 27% Vulnerability above 10% is not biologically necessary. Most vulnerable children are not poor!

3. Life Course Problems Related to Early Life Early Vulnerability 2nd Decade 3rd/4th Decade 5th/6th Decade Old Age • School Failure • Teen Pregnancy • Criminality • Obesity • Elevated Blood • Pressure • Depression • Coronary Heart • Disease • Diabetes • Premature • Aging • Memory Loss

4. BC: Unique Population Laboratory: Early Vulnerability  Quality of Labour Supply Kindergarten Population Grade 4 Population Grade 7 Population Grade 12 Population Criminal activity

5. Reduce Early Vulnerability to 10%... to cut incarceration by a third

6. The next generation’s Human Capital Vulnerability If Then University eligible grades At K At G.12 # of children 29% 41.5% Low High Score on scale of EDI and % achieving university eligible grades

7. The next generation’s Human Capital Vulnerability If Then University eligible grades At K At G.12 # of children 10% 55.6% Low High Score on scale of EDI and % achieving university eligible grades

8. What does the early vulnerability debt cost BC?

9. Countries with 55% of students getting university-eligible grades • vs. • Countries with 42% of students getting university eligible grades… • ENJOYED .63% OF GDP GROWTH MORE PER YEAR, FOR 40 YEARS 1960 – 2000: Research shows…

10. Decreased Vulnerability = Increased Growth Reduced early vulnerabilityincreases GDP by Reduced vulnerability (10%) 20% That’s throwing away $117 billion now + interest over 60 years! Status Quo (29% vulnerable) Baseline growth First cohort graduates Baseline growth plus 0.63% GDP per year First cohort of 5 year olds benefit from 15 by 15 policy We are here

11. Gov’t of Sask Goal:Growth Investment in family policy is the foundation for a robust human capital strategy.

13. Limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius requires absolute reduction in GHG emissions, while population grows. Option 1: Technological innovation to decouple economic growth from carbon emissions. • Option 2: • Move from a growth to a steady state economy and radically transform the meaning of welfare and the institutions for achieving it.

14. Why 27% vulnerable?

15. EDI data  similar trends across the country BC vulnerability rate: 29%

16. 15 by 15

17. A hole in the middle may be good for doughnuts, • but not for • public policy.

18. Canadian Society is FAILING parents in fundamental ways! Because there is no system of family policy… Time Poverty Service Poverty Income Poverty Reflects appreciation of costs imposed by residential school system; reserves, etc.

19. Smart Family Policy 0 to18 months Time: improve parental leave Services: monthly access to health check-ins and parenting support 0-18 months 18 months to six years Time: re-think ‘full-time’ work Services: early learning and care 18 months to school entry 0 to six years Low-income: make work pay Low-income: increase welfare

20. Target: $-1,532

21. Leave  $24635 in Parental Time in year 1 $12618 in Parental Time year 2 Supplemented by Healthy Child Check-Ins & Parenting Support

22. Public expenditure on ECEC services (0-6 years) Denmark Sweden Norway Finland France Hungary Austria • Canada(outside Quebec) • Few spaces • Insufficient quality • High cost • Inadequate Inclusion United Kingdom United States Netherlands Germany Italy Australia OECDavg.0.7% UNICEF & EUbenchmark1.0% 0.25% Canada Canada Sask. 0.17% 0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% % of GDP Source: Adapted from Starting Strong ll: Early Childhood Education and Care, September 2006, p.11

23. Regulated Early Care and Education, by province(2008) Source: Author calculations based on The Big Picture, Early Childhood Education and Care in Canada 2008

24. ECEC  more parents synchronize earning and caring But new Employment Standards reduce yearly hours, but contemplate later retirement 40  35 hours * 2 parents: trade $6k for 500 hours Subsidized by $7-$16k in services One earner couple: 40  35 hours * 1 parent; ECEC  additional employment time for parent 2.

25. Low-Income Policy : Provincial Comparisons

26. Child Poverty Rates by Province 40% poor children live with an adult who works full-time full-year. 2007: 16.7

27. In Work Supplement to Earnings*Low Income ($26,620) Families with Toddler (2008) Australia+$7890 Target = $6160, rank 3rd Australia +$10658 Target = $5943, rank 7th *After child care service and routine health subsidies vs. costs; plus housing subsidies

28. Child Poverty Rates by Province Policy mechanisms (tax expenditures) not reaching some citizens? 45% of Aboriginal children are poor? 2007: 16.7

29. (2008) Canadian Currency (controlling for purchasing power parities)

30. Income after Average Prov. Urban Rent and Routine Health: • Lone Mother + Child Age 2 on Social Assistance (2008) Target: $12,500 Sweden 5th

31. The price of smart family policy...

32. The cost of reducing vulnerability? Funding for Community Services Time Funding for Parents $138 million $554 million Income $842 Million /Year $150 million = $288 million

33. $842 Million in Saskatchewan?!? Eventual returns outweigh costs by 6/1 Less than half what we spend cumulatively on Old Age Security and RRSPs. About 20% of total fed/prov health care spending.

34. $842 Million Increase in Spending? Provincial Health Care Spending($ Billions) 1998 - 2008 SK: $1.2 Billion SK $1 Billion

35. Business = Key Beneficiary in Short-Term

36. Productivity: $68 million • Retention: $157 million • Private insurance premiums $ 3 million • Parental leave top up • $ 5 million • $233 million • Minimum wage… $842 million minus…Short-term returns to Sask employers from Smart Family Policy

37. Short-term returns for elected officials

38. Child welfare: $37 million • GPs, Emerg, Hospitalization: $70 million • Prescription drugs $ 6 million • Workers Comp $28 million • Labour supply $49 million • $189 million $609 million minus…Short-term returns to Government

39. K-12 efficiencies • Health care savings from poverty reduction • Haven’t talked about reallocation… • Haven’t talked about immediate benefits to families… $420 million minus…Paid for half of SFP, and haven’t even counted

40. Earnings $105 million • Low-income support • $150 million • Time to care ???? $420 million minus…Immediate benefits for families with young kids…

41. Reduce Early Vulnerability to 10%... Annual crime reduction savings grow to $116 million, Year 4-11

42. Smart Family Policy= Smart Economics A Just Cause But Will We Pursue this Bold Ambition?

43. Not a Research Question It’s a question about being Canadian in Saskatchewan!

44. Recommit to Gender Equality to Make Progress on Family Policy/Health Promotion in the early years Sources: World Economic Forum and UNICEF

45. Disease Fetish:Trends in Saskatchewan spending Share of Total Expenditure: 1985 2008 Health 29.4% 38.4% Education 18.7% 21.3% Social Services 9.4% 6.5%

46. Life Course Problems Related to Early Life 2nd Decade 3rd/4th Decade 5th/6th Decade Old Age • School Failure • Teen Pregnancy • Criminality • Obesity • Elevated Blood • Pressure • Depression • Coronary Heart • Disease • Diabetes • Premature • Aging • Memory Loss

47. As Medical Care “crowds out” other spending, we must question: What medical care we owe one another as our capacity to save increases dramatically with costly technology and drugs?

48. Question: And what does it mean for a society when it spends hundreads of thousands, if not millions, of dollars to save a pre-term baby – one life – but is remarkably hesitant to invest in health promotion for the population through programs like early learning and care, housing, food? 

49. Beyond Boomercentrism

50. Intergenerational Injustice