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Roger Duncan General Manager Austin Energy The City of Austin’s Electric Utility

Coming Clean: Energy Priorities at a Crossroads. Roger Duncan General Manager Austin Energy The City of Austin’s Electric Utility. The Energy Process. Work. Fuel. Transformation. Waste. Roger Duncan 7/25/08. Oil Gas Coal Uranium Sun Wind Biomass Other.

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Roger Duncan General Manager Austin Energy The City of Austin’s Electric Utility

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  1. Coming Clean:Energy Priorities at a Crossroads Roger Duncan General Manager Austin Energy The City of Austin’s Electric Utility

  2. The Energy Process Work Fuel Transformation Waste Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  3. Oil Gas Coal Uranium Sun Wind Biomass Other Source to End Use Energy Energy Technology Waste Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  4. Annual World Primary Energy QUADS ANNUAL PRODUCTION 403 QUADS (2001) Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  5. Total World Resource Endowment 20000 15000 QUADS 10000 5000 0 Oil Gas Coal Uranium Wind Solar RESOURCE Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  6. Infrastructure Fuel Depletion Energy Density Workforce Water Supply Constraints Climate Change Decision Process Infrastructure Problems Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  7. Infrastructure • Developed for Limited Fuel Types • Transportation – Oil • Electricity – Coal, Gas, Uranium • Age • Technology

  8. Fuel Depletion • OIL • Above-ground problems • Maturity of super-giant fields • Production lag from discovery • Non-conventional oil limitations • Production Plateau • Rising Demand • GAS • Supply • LNG

  9. Energy Density • Movement from high-energy density fuels to low-energy density fuels • New infrastructure needed • More space/volume needed • Transportation/transmission issues Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  10. Infrastructure Problems cont’d • Workforce • Retirement for experienced personnel • Inadequate workforce for infrastructure expansion • Water • Technology constraint • Energy - water nexus Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  11. Supply Constraints • Across all Technologies • Oil drilling rigs • Wind turbines • Coal rail delivery • Pure silicon Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  12. Climate Change Shift to carbon-neutral fuels and technologies Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  13. Decision Process • Too many solutions • Complex mixture of marketplace, regulation, and fuel and technology supply issues Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  14. Clean Energy Principles • Energy Efficiency • Minimize Infrastructure Change • Focus on solutions incorporating existing infrastructure • Plug-in Hybrids • Match fuel and technology to loads • Solar – Lighting • Gas – Heating • Wind, Nuclear – Desalinization Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  15. Clean Energy Principlescont’d • Understand and Align with “Mega-Trends” • Buckminster Fuller – Accelerating Ephemeralization • Raymond Kurzweil • The Law of Accelerating Returns • GNR – Genetics, Nanotechnology, Robotics • Alvin Toffler – Prosumerism Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  16. Clean Energy Principlescont’d • Sustainability Principles • Diversification • Reuse, Renew, Recycle • Exploit unification of energy processes • Smart Grid • Combined Heat and Power • “Power” Internet • Prioritize, Prioritize, Prioritize Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  17. Prioritizing is Crucial • The difference between good and optimal in prioritizing energy projects could mean the difference in tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars • Choosing the most effective projects early will mean the difference between saving or losing decades in stabilizing carbon concentrations in the atmosphere Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  18. Utilities, Businesses, and Governments Must Make Energy Project Choices • Should a utility build a wind farm, a nuclear power plant, or invest in DSM programs? • Should a corporate board of directors allocate resources to green power programs, on-site renewable energy, or energy efficiency? And what kind of energy efficiency program is best suited? • Should a local government provide incentives for building codes or energy efficient transportation? Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  19. What energy projects will provide the largest reduction in CO2 emissions in the shortest time at the least cost?

  20. Allocating Energy Reducing Measures • CFLs • Conventional Hybrid Autos • Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  21. Example Target Markets Seattle Cleveland Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  22. Measures CFLs Hybrids PHEVs Target Markets Seattle Cleveland Option 1:Split measures evenly between markets Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  23. Measures CFLs Hybrids PHEVs Target Markets Seattle Cleveland Option 2: Split measures to curb the most carbon emissions in each market Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  24. Clean Energy Priorities May Vary Due to: • Fuel Mix • Renewable Inventory of Region • Supply Availability • Public Consensus • Water Resources • Time Constraints Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  25. Clean Energy Project Exchange (CEPEx)

  26. This project aims to provide a tool that assists utilities, businesses, governments, and individuals in choosing energy projects with the goal of reducing carbon.

  27. Prioritizing your Energy: Criteria for Comparison • If a central purpose is to reduce carbon, then a key calculation is the carbon return on investment (CROI) • CROI – how much carbon is removed from (or not placed in) the atmosphere for each dollar spent

  28. Simple Version of CROI • X – Y K • X = current amount of carbon produced from a certain fuel/technology • Y = carbon expected to be produced from the cleaner fuel/technology • K = cost of the energy project Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  29. Clean Energy Priority Tool: Energy matrix lists costs used for comparison and generating technologies • Levelized cost of electricity – amount invested to cover operating costs plus annualized capital costs of operating a generating facility Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  30. Further examples of criteria for comparison • Coal • - Pulverized Coal • - Integrated Gasification • Combined Cycle • - IGCC w Carbon Capture and Sequestration • Solar • - Concentrated Solar Power • - Photovoltaic • * Thin film • * Silicon Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  31. Data is updatable and transparent 1 EIA, “Coal Production in the U.S.-An Historical Overview, October 2006” 3Steve Specker, EPRI, “Generation Technologies in a Carbon-Constrained World” 5 EIA, Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 2006, March 2006, p.135. 6 Gas Turbine World, January-February 2007, P. 54 Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  32. Prioritizing the Criteria 1 3 6.39¢/ kWh 5.99¢/kWh 2 Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  33. Carbon Return On Investment Index (CROII) • Will rate the different technologies on the amount of carbon displaced in reference to a standard (carbon emissions from a standard PC plant) • Matrix would automatically sort by this index, listing highest CROI to the lowest, unless otherwise specified Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  34. Austin Energy is developing prototype • Version 1.0 available next year Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  35. The Conventional Energy System Petroleum Vehicle Office Building Fossil Fuel Power Plant Roger Duncan 7/25/08

  36. The Future Bio fuels Plug-in H2 Nuclear Fossil Fuels Solar Wind Distributed Utility Zero Energy Home Roger Duncan 7/25/08

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