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CME trajectory deduced from cosmic ray measurements

CME trajectory deduced from cosmic ray measurements. K. Munakata, T. Kuwabara and J. W. Bieber. Geomagnetic & Cosmic-ray storms. CME, Shock. Cosmic ray storms isotropic intensity decreases Forbush Decrease anisotropy enhancements B×Gradient anisotropy ⇒ deduction of CME trajectory.

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CME trajectory deduced from cosmic ray measurements

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  1. CME trajectory deduced from cosmic ray measurements K. Munakata, T. Kuwabara and J. W. Bieber

  2. Geomagnetic & Cosmic-ray storms CME, Shock Cosmic ray storms • isotropic intensitydecreases • Forbush Decrease • anisotropyenhancements • B×Gradient anisotropy ⇒ deduction of CME trajectory

  3. Ｂ×Gradientanisotropy : IMF unit vector : density gradient vector : Larmour radius ~0.2 AU for muons ｰG⊥ pointing toward CME center

  4. Prototype Muon Detector Network 35 directions (Nagoya, Hobart, SaoMartinho) 1ry Energy 50~120 GeV Data used CMEs analyzed

  5. Observation 4/11 8/27 Gx Gy Gz

  6. Analysis Assume Gaussian CR density distribution, as… : depth : width Then gradient will be… Derive r using observed G(r) • Method 1 • Getrfrom observed G(r) every hour • Method 2 • Get trajectory by best-fitting the expected G(r) to • the observed

  7. Method 1 • Gobs • |Gobs| ⇒ r • Gobs orientation • 　 ⇒direction of • CME center • Location of CME center • (x,y,z in unit of l)

  8. 4/11 CME by Method1 • Moving direction • GSE lat.=48°, long.=193° • Velocity (using average SW • speed 650km/s for Vx…) • |V|=1000km/s • Width of CME • λ=0.10AU • Impact parameter at earth • D=0.017AU

  9. Method 2 Set the location of CME center at time t, as… Then the gradient at t will be… Find parameters which give…

  10. 4/11 CME by Method 2 • Moving direction • θ=60°,φ=183° • Velocity (Vx=650km/s) • V=1300km/s • Width of CME • λ=0.14AU • Impact parameter • D=0.035AU

  11. 8/27 CME by Metod 1 • Moving direction • θ=-12°,φ=212° • Velocity (using Vx=500km/s) • V=610km/s • Width of CME • λ=0.087AU • Impact parameter • D=0.12AU

  12. 8/27 CME by Method 2 • Moving direction • θ=ｰ10°,φ=224° • Velocity (Vx=500km/s） • V=700km/s • Width of CME • λ=0.14AU • Impact parameter • D=0.22AU

  13. Summary • 4/11 CME • CME center hit the earth moving northward • 8/27 CME • CME center passed the south of earth moving from east to west of the sun

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