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Wouter GEVAERTS Thomas TRACK Dietmar MÜLLER

WG C – Groundwater Activity WGC-3 Risk Assessment (RA) and Conceptual Models (CM). Wouter GEVAERTS Thomas TRACK Dietmar MÜLLER. Activity WGC-3 (IRAM) Outline. process since Lisbon 2007 yesterdays drafting group meeting structure of the document Further procedure.

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Wouter GEVAERTS Thomas TRACK Dietmar MÜLLER

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  1. WG C – GroundwaterActivity WGC-3Risk Assessment (RA) and Conceptual Models (CM) Wouter GEVAERTS Thomas TRACK Dietmar MÜLLER

  2. Activity WGC-3 (IRAM) Outline • process since Lisbon 2007 • yesterdays drafting group meeting • structure of the document • Further procedure

  3. Activity WGC-3 (IRAM)OBJECTIVES (Lisbon 2007) • Improved & Integrated Risk Assessment for Groundwater at River Basin Level • Update of characterisation under Art. 5 of the WFD (until 2013) • Supporting River Basin Management Planning (2nd cycle) • Adaptive management 2015-2027 • ‘lessons learnt’ by implementing the WFD during the last years!

  4. Activity WGC-3 (IRAM) WG C plenary (Paris, November 2008) • proposal for a revised work plan • either integrating 3 lines of action into one activity or • 2009 focused effort Risk Assessment and Conceptual Modeling • Risk Management (techn. report) • as a separate working issue for 2010 • specific topic on cost-benefit-analysing

  5. Activity WGC-3 (IRAM)AIM & SCOPE Risk Assessment • Generic elements, specific WFD-implementation • Reviewing risk assessment approaches • Refining procedures Conceptual models • Sound system understanding • Understanding of impacts and measures [Risk Management] • Generic elements, specific WFD-implementation • Reducing risks, feasible measures at proportionate costs • Balancing cost-benefit-aspects • Public acceptance

  6. Activity WGC-3 (IRAM) drafting group meetings 2009 • Vienna (March 10/11) • Risk Assessment WG C workshop 2004 • CM – linkages to existing guidances • Prague (April 27) • Frankfurt (June 29/30) • RA with regard to WFD/GWD – common understanding • CM - reworking • Stockholm (October 14)

  7. Activity WGC-3 (IRAM) SUMMARY: “Risk” in the WFD & GWD • WFD: 26 references • prevent and limit (Guidance No 17) • priority substances • risk assessment (Art. 5 & Techn. reports 2003 & 2004) • chemical status (Guidance No 18 & No 15) • quantitative status (Guidance No 15) • environmental risk • DWPAs (Guidance No. 16) • trend assessment (Guidance No 18) • GWD: 6 references • prevent and limit (Guidance No 17) • Chemical status (Guidance No 18)

  8. Guidance on Risk AssessmentStructure(Stockholm discussions 1) Introduction Risk Assessment Overview (‘the process’) Conceptual Model Overview(‘the tool’) WFD objectives and Risk Assessment use of Conceptual Models regarding 5 RA-concepts Elements to consider during the 2nd planning cycle Explaining the use of CM in the line of the 4 main WFD-processes: characterization, monitoring, status assessment, measures ANNEXES

  9. Guidance on Risk AssessmentStructure(Stockholm discussions 2) ANNEXES: WFD/GWD risk quotations Conceptual Models (understanding the tool and how to develop it) Examples describing the RA process at GW-body scale Conceptual Model at GW-body scale (AT) RA & CM regarding Nitrate-reduction (GE, DK) RA & CM drinking water abstraction Bergambacht (NL) RA & CM on quantitative aspects (MT) Vulnerability (IMPRESS, BRIDGE, COST-project for carstic aquifers, other studies)

  10. Guidance on Risk AssessmentReframing – The content (1) 1. Introduction Why this guidance? Support for 2nd cycle RBM planning (reporting on review of risk assessment due in 2013) immediate learning loop how to establish an integrated planning process Inventory of references to risk in WFD and GWD Linking existing guidances

  11. Guidance on Risk AssessmentReframing – The content (2) 1. Introduction RA needs draw a consequent causal chain linking the origin (identification and estimation of hazards e.g. specific pressures or substances) to negative consequences for human health or the environment (e.g. vulnerability, exposure and impact assessment) and to qualify theprobability of such a forecast. Aiming to prepare informed decisions

  12. Guidance on Risk AssessmentReframing – Understanding of ‘risks’ (1) 2. Risk Assessment Overview • Risks not achieving the WFD objectives for GW-bodies (details see chapter 4) • Integrating RA & RM (using the IRGC framework) • Importance of temporal scales • uncertainty analysis • tiered risk assessment • planning cycles – improving understanding and decreasing uncertainty

  13. Integrating Risk Assessment & Management Reframing – Understanding of ‘risks’ (2) IRGC’s FRAMEWORK Deciding Understanding ASSESSMENT SPHERE understanding & informing Pre-Assessment Management Communication Appraisal Characterisation and Evaluation Categorising the knowledge about the risk MANAGEMENT SPHERE decisions & implementation Introducing the IRGC’s Risk Governance Framework 06

  14. IRGC’S RISK GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK ‘TRAFFIC LIGHT MODEL’ (acceptability/tolerability) Based on both the evidence from the risk appraisal and evaluation of broader value-based choices and the trade-offs involved, decide whether or not to take on the risk. Prohibition or Risk so much greater than benefit that it cannot be taken on Substitution Benefit is worth the risk, but risk reduction measures are necessary Reduction No formal intervention necessary Acceptance Introducing the IRGC’s Risk Governance Framework 20

  15. Risk Assessment & Status Assessment Reframing – Understanding of ‘risks’ (3) ASSESSMENT SPHERE understanding & informing

  16. Guidance on Risk AssessmentReframing – Understanding of ‘risks’ (4) Importance of temporal scales GW-bodies react different than surface water bodies Reactions of GW-systems: impacts of pressures as well as of measures occur over a variety of time scales from months, to years, decades and centuries

  17. Guidance on Risk AssessmentReframing – Understanding of ‘risks’ (5) Uncertainty Analysis different sources of uncertainty (in data, from sampling, environmental variability, lack of knowledge and in models) Compared with most environmental media, the groundwater environment is relatively inaccessible, highly heterogeneous and difficult to observe/monitor. The movement of pollutants in 3-dimensions and over the long timescales that are typical of many groundwater environments make accurate predictions difficult. For many subsurface processes a statistical or deterministic approach to risk assessment may not be feasible and “weight of evidence” approaches may be the best we can achieve.

  18. decreasingsignificantuncertainties Guidance on Risk AssessmentReframing – tiered apporaches Pre-assessment (qualitative risk screening for GW-bodies) “not at risk“ information uncertain (low confidence) “at risk“ investigation & data collection appraisal (semi-quantitative assessment) “not at risk“ data uncertainty “at risk“ investigation & data collection characterisation and evaluation (risk assessment) “GW-bodies not at risk“ “GW-bodies at risk“

  19. Guidance on Risk AssessmentDisscussions Stockholm (3) 3. Conceptual Model Overview problem-oriented approach (‘suitable for use’) use and development within tiered approaches (see e.g. WFD, initial characterization …) Quantity (vital first line) Quality (multitude of pressures increasing data needs) Linking to other guidances Look out for visualisation

  20. CM – developing the tool

  21. CM link to existing Guidance documents

  22. Guidance on Risk AssessmentExisting Frames 4. WFD objectives and risk assessment introduction by linking to existing guidance docs WFD objectives Prevent & limit Preventing the deterioration of chemical status of GW-bodies Achieving good groundwater status Implementing measures to revise any significant and sustained upward trend Meeting the requirements of protected areas use of CM as a tool (complementary to objectives)

  23. Guidance on Risk AssessmentIntegrating available knowledge (1) 5. Elements to consider during the 2nd cycle • information previous planning cycle • Characterisation of GW-bodies • Significant pressures (quantity & quality) • Monitoring data • Status Assessment

  24. Guidance on Risk AssessmentIntegrating available knowledge (2) 5. Elements to consider during the 2nd cycle Considering changes Land use Climate change Use of Threshold Values Groundwater Directive Guidance on Status and Trend Assessment RA, measures & exemptions

  25. Guidance on Risk AssessmentBridging to Management 5.4 Risk assessment, measures & exemptions integrated planning tight time schedule exemptions, alternative objectives and irreversibility justified exemptions not achieving the WFD objectives by 2021 Program of Measures increasing reliability of predicted outcomes • based on RA • using CM

  26. ANNEX CM (1) (Guidance structure - to be reworked!!!) • 5.2 Risk based requirements • 5.3 Management based requirements • 5.4 Documentation/visualisation • 6 Validation of CM, quality assurance • 8 Application of CM in risk assessment • 9 Application of CM in risk management • 10 Glossary • 11 References • Annexes 1 Introduction & Definitions 2 Basic procedure 3 Requirements to a CM 3.1 Questions to be answered by a CM 3.2 Area to be considered 3.3 Processes to be considered 4 Data 4.1 Data needs 4.2 (existing) Data review 4.3 Data collection/acquisition 5 Conceptual model set-up, documentation/visualisation 5.1 Basic CM

  27. Monitoring Wells Monitoring Wells Homogeneous Units Conceptual Model Subsurface Geology Monitoring Well Aquitard Unsaturated Zone Unsaturated Zone Well River Aquifer 2 x 10 [m/s] 1 x 10 1 x 10 [m/s] [m/s] -5 -5 -6 Clay Aquifer Aquitard Fine Sand Coarse Sand Saturated Zone Saturated Zone Aquifer Model Boundary Clay Model Boundary Aquitard 5 x 10 [m/s] -4 ANNEX CM (2) Conceptual hydrogeological model approach

  28. Abstraction Bergambacht Guidance on Risk AssessmentANNEX - Examples Example ‘Bergambacht’ for Guidance on Risk Assessment (Risk Analysis on a local scale for an abstraction site in the Netherlands)

  29. Guidance on Risk AssessmentANNEX – Examples: GW-body catchment area motorway water supply Airport 4000 m main road

  30. Guidance on Risk AssessmentFurther procedure (1) Chapters 1 & 2 + 3 (Conceptual Model Overview) revised drafts 1&2+3 (Act. 3): 20.11.2009 comments: 4.12.2009 decision on writing meeting Revisions, Chapters 4 & 5; CM-Annex & Examples Full draft (Act. 3): 15.01.2010 comments: 29.01.2010 revisions (1 week)

  31. Guidance on Risk AssessmentFurther procedure (2) revised full draft (WG C): 5.02.2010 comments 26.02.2010 revisions Written approval: 19.03.2010

  32. RISK-BASED MANAGEMENT informed (evidence-based) regarding the natural/biophysical system integrating water and soil management ecosystem services and goods (characterize linkages and trade offs; communication) participatory within the social system adaptive (coping with uncertainties and complexity) to global change climate policy economy and land use

  33. Risk-Based River Basin Management RISKBASE – FINAL CONFERENCE 16.-18. November 2009 16.11.09 Parliamentary Evening (Brussels) 17./18.11.09 Final Conference (Mechelen) see www.riskbase.info

  34. GREENING REMEDIATION 9.-10. November 2009 COPENHAGEN

  35. THANKS TO ALL CO-WORKERS! THANKS FOR LISTENING!

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