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Labor Market Information: Key Factors Driving Current & Future Job Demand in Michigan. Michigan Department of Technology, Management & Budget Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives. Key Factors Driving Job Demand.
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Labor Market Information: Key Factors Driving Current & Future Job Demand in Michigan Michigan Department of Technology, Management & Budget Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives
Key Factors Driving Job Demand • What are some of the key current trends in the Michigan labor market? • What are likely to be some of the key futuretrends in the Michigan labor market? • For some of Michigan’s key sectors: • What are the key factors driving current job demand in those industries? • What may be some of the factors impacting future job demand in these sectors?
Who We Are… • Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives, part of the Department of Technology, Management and Budget • Responsible for producing and publishing information and analysis on the Michigan workforce and the state’s regions and counties • Most of our staff is located in Detroit, but a few economic analysts are situated in Lansing and other Michigan regions • Information on employment, unemployment, industry job trends, skill sets, occupations, wages, demographics of the labor pool, etc.
Key Recent Labor Market Trendsin Michigan • Labor force decline may have bottomed out • Michigan workforce levels fell for six consecutive years from 2007-2012 • Workforce levels rose by 37,000 in 2013, the first increase since 2006 • Michigan jobless rate dropped in 2013 for the fourth consecutive year, but remains above pre-recessionary level • Far fewer layoffs recently of persons with jobs, but job market remains competitive for the unemployed • Average duration of unemployment at a very high level; about 39 weeks
Jobless Rate Gap (Michigan vs. U.S.) Has Narrowed Since 2009 Michigan Rate Still Above 2008 Levels
Recent Trends in Jobs • Payroll jobs advanced in Michigan in 2013 for the third consecutive year • Michigan job gains over the last several years: • Manufacturing • Health care • Technical services • Temporary help services • Restaurants • Mortgage banking • Job losses primarily in government
Recent Trends in Job Openings • Michigan top occupations with online job vacancies: • Registered nurses • Truck drivers • Retail sales workers and managers • Industrial engineers • Customer service representatives • Mechanical engineers • Computer systems analysts • Faster openings growth over year in services, transportation, installation & repair, health care support, and management occupations • Slow growth over year in clerical and sales job postings • Diverse set of industry sectors posting jobs
Potential Future Trends in the Michigan Labor Market • Michigan population and labor force growth expected to be more modest than national average • Aging of the workforce will impact demand for goods and services, and produce job openings for replacement workers • Above average job growth expected for jobs requiring an associate’s, bachelor’s, or master’s degree • Continued “upskilling” of jobs expected in some sectors in terms of educational/training requirements • Additional educational attainment will continue to be associated with lower unemployment rates and higher wages
Michigan Health Care Jobs Record Job Levels in 2013
Health CareRecent Factors Driving Job Demand • Only sector in Michigan with continuous job expansion even through the recession • Strong job gains in doctor’s offices, hospitals, home health care, social services • Investment in health care technology has created jobs in Michigan • Several prestigious medical centers in Michigan attract patients and conduct medical research • The aging of the Michigan population has generated increased demand for health services
Health CareFactors That May Impact Future Job Demand • Continued aging of the population – “Baby-boom” generation will be entirely 55+ by 2020 • Health status of the population • Emphasis on preventative care and home care could change dynamics of job demand • Continued pace of investment in health care technology • Health care labor supply – will need to replace an aging health care workforce • Health care reform and the need for cost containment in the overall health care system
Michigan Professional & Technical Services Jobs Jobs at Highest Level Since 2001
Professional & Technical ServicesRecent Factors Driving Job Demand • Sector is a key source of “knowledge jobs” for the Michigan economy; many high skill–high wage positions • Strong recent job additions in Engineering services, IT services, Research and development • Michigan highly ranked nationally in number and share of science and engineering jobs • Strong recovery of auto industry has promoted much of the recent job expansion in this sector • Increased jobs in business consulting and IT services have benefited by rebound in business investment after recession
Professional & Technical ServicesFactors That May Impact Future Job Demand • Michigan’s competitive advantage: A very high current share of jobs in engineering services • Future concentration of white collar technical jobs related to the auto industry • Pace of insourcing or outsourcing of IT functions • Technical jobs comprise an increased share of total jobs across many industries, leading to overall job gains • Technical services labor supply • Highly educated with most jobs requiring bachelor’s, associate’s degrees and above • Women are underrepresented in IT and engineering positions
Michigan Manufacturing Jobs Led Job Recovery Since Recession
ManufacturingRecent Factors Driving Job Demand • Manufacturing jobs in Michigan • Cut in almost half from 1999 to 2009 • Sector is top source of job growth over last year in Michigan economy • Recent job expansion primarily reflects strong rebound in domestic auto sales and auto production • Significant levels of investment in Michigan auto assembly operations • Job advances since 2009 reflect both recalls of laid off workers and new hires • Broad gains, with job growth rates of over 25 percent since 2009 in fabricated metals, plastics, primary metals, autos, and machinery manufacturing
ManufacturingFactors That May Impact Future Job Demand • Michigan’s competitive advantage: Skilled labor supply in advanced manufacturing production and auto-related design and engineering • Productivity gains and automation will tend to limit long-term job expansion in manufacturing • Pace of insourcing or outsourcing of production work • Michigan manufacturing success in export markets • Labor supply issues • Production jobs increasingly require technical education and skill • Young people will need to be attracted to production occupations to replace an aging workforce
Michigan Employment Services Jobs Rapid Response to Improved Post-Recession Economic Conditions
Employment ServicesRecent Factors Driving Job Demand • High sensitivity to economic conditions • 24 percent job drop in Michigan from 2007 to 2009 • All of this job loss recovered in 2010-2012 • Temporary help sector now supplies labor to a wide range of private and public employers • Not all statistics on job gains in this industry reflect new jobs; some reflects a shift in jobs to temporary agencies or professional employer organizations • Temporary help jobs increasingly used in early stages of an economic recovery?
Employment ServicesFactors That May Impact Future Job Demand • Will employers increase utilization of a just-in-time labor supply? • Increased staffing flexibility • Quality of the temporary workforce and training issues • Some workers in temporary jobs may value mobility across job assignments; others may prefer to migrate into permanent work through a temporary assignment • Temporary workforce now has wider diversity in occupations and skill levels than before • Average weekly wage in employment services only two-thirds of wage for all private sector jobs
Michigan Restaurant Industry Jobs Jobs Rebound to 2007 Levels
RestaurantsRecent Factors Driving Job Demand • Recent Michigan restaurant industry job growth matched the rate of gain of private sector jobs • 2012-2013 • Michigan Private Sector Jobs: +2.3 percent • Michigan Restaurant Industry Jobs: +2.4 percent • Disposable income gains positive in Michigan for 3 consecutive years: • 2010: +2.2 percent • 2011: +4.1 percent • 2012: +3.1 percent
RestaurantsFactors That May Impact Future Job Demand • Population growth • Overall economic health • Disposable income growth • Consumer confidence • Consumer preferences • Interest in local sourcing of food and nutrition
Contains current monthly and quarterly data on the Michigan and regional job markets Economic data can be downloaded on a customized basis using Data Explorer tool Many publications with information on regional workforce trends Employment, unemployment, industries, occupations, forecasts, more DTMB Labor Market Information Website (www.michigan.gov/lmi)
Other Useful Websites • Bureau of Labor Statistics www.bls.gov • Census Bureau www.census.gov • American Community Survey www.census.gov/acs/www • OnTheMap http://onthemap.ces.census.gov • Bureau of Economic Analysis www.bea.gov
Key Factors Driving Current & Future Job Demand in Michigan For additional information: Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives Bruce Weaver Manager of Labor Market Analysis 313.456.3091 weaverb1@michigan.gov Please visit our website at www.michigan.gov/lmi