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Developing Actuarial Tools to Predict Sexual Recidivism: What Is the Best Criminal Record Outcome Measure

2. What Do We Mean by Sexual" Recidivism?. New charge/conviction for an offense that is clearly sexual using only the criminal rapsheet? (eg., RRASOR, Static-99, MnSOST-R)? rapsheet sexual"New charge/conviction for an offense that is clearly hands-on and sexual when we have more information th

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Developing Actuarial Tools to Predict Sexual Recidivism: What Is the Best Criminal Record Outcome Measure

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    1. 1 Developing Actuarial Tools to Predict Sexual Recidivism: What Is the Best Criminal Record Outcome Measure? Marnie E. Rice, Grant T. Harris, Carol Lang & Catherine Cormier AP-LS March, 2004 http://www.mhcp-research.com/present.htm riceme@mcmaster.ca

    2. 2 What Do We Mean by “Sexual” Recidivism? New charge/conviction for an offense that is clearly sexual using only the criminal rapsheet? (eg., RRASOR, Static-99, MnSOST-R)? “rapsheet sexual” New charge/conviction for an offense that is clearly hands-on and sexual when we have more information than just the criminal rapsheet? Something else eg. SVP laws: New (predatory) “forcible sexual act”?

    3. 3 Other Relevant Studies Marshall & Barbaree (1988) Motiuk & Belcourt (1996) Falshaw, Bates, Patel, Corbett, & Friendship (2003) Corbett, Patel, Erikson, & Friendship (2003) 12 of 104 of violent “nonsexual” reconvictions listed on rapsheet were actually sexually motivated: 3 of these had been sexual charge.

    4. 4 Our study Part 1: Index offense 178 offenders admitted to maximum security hospital following a “sex” offense and referred to Sexual Behavior Laboratory Consulted police reports, information from case historian 57 (32%) had no instant “sexual” conviction 51 had clearly sexually motivated offenses, 5 “probably”, 1 “possible” Inter-rater agreement (ICC)=.89 Examples of possible, probable

    5. 5 Index offense (cont.) 52 /178 (29%) had neither instant “sexual” charge nor conviction 31 murder 49 “violent” 6 attempted murder 2 choking 3 forcible confinement 7 assault 2 threatening 3 “nonviolent” 1 breach probation

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