330 likes | 438 Views
Thailand’s Export Opportunities and Export Potentials in ASEAN+3. Em. Prof. Dr. Ludo Cuyvers. Let me introduce myself…. Emeritus professor University of Antwerp, Belgium Director Centre for ASEAN Studies, University of Antwerp, Belgium
E N D
Thailand’s Export Opportunities and Export Potentials in ASEAN+3 Em. Prof. Dr. Ludo Cuyvers
Let me introduce myself… • Emeritus professor University of Antwerp, Belgium • Director Centre for ASEAN Studies, University of Antwerp, Belgium • Extraordinary professor, North-West University (Potchefstroom Campus), South Africa • Associate Research Fellow, United Nations University – Centre for Regional Integration Studies, Bruges, Belgium • Chairman European Institute for Asian Studies, Brussels, Belgium http://www.ua.ac.be/ludo.cuyvers Ludo.cuyvers@ua.ac.be
I will talk about • The Decision Support Model (DSM) • Some DSM resultsfor Thailand in the world • The DSM resultsfor Thailand in ASEAN+3 • Comparison • Furtherdiscussion • Booklaunch
Why? • The challenges of public export promotion today: • Deminishing returns of traditional instruments • Successes of “emergingeconomies” • Scarce resources
Hence the need of: • Innovativeinstruments • Betterfocused export promotion strategies • A scientific approach
Starting from 1,296,720 possible world-wide possible export opportunities... Use filtering process to select export opportunities with the most potential ∑236 640 possible country-product combinations
DSM methodology in a nutshell The DSM uses a sequential filtering process (4 filters) that will eliminate less promising export opportunities and focus on those countries and product-market combinations that show the most potential
the DSMapproach Filter 1 Filter 4 Filter 3 Sequential filtering process Market accessibility Index Degree of concentration HHI Identified export opportunities Political and commercial risk assessment & Macroeconomic analysis (market potential) ONDD, GDP & GDP/capita Relative market share Final analysis of export opportunities Detecting possible export opportunities Realistic export opportunities Filter 2 Market size Classification REOs Short- and long-term growth Market characteristics
Filter 1 Filter 1a: Country risk of allcountries: 32 countriesdropped 209 countries go to Filter 1b F 13 countriesdroppedduetolacking GDP and GDP per capita data Filter 1b: Country macro-economiccharacteristics: GDP and GDP per capita: 67 countries GDP and GDP/capita growth: 65 countries 106 countrieswith 545,703 HS 6 digit internationaltrade data
Filter 2 Size and growth of the import markets: Filter 3 Filter 3a Filter 3b Import marketconcentration at disaggregated product level Import marketaccessability at disaggregated product level
Filter 4 Categorization of REOsaccordingtorelativemarketshare of exporting country and import marketcharacteristics
Distribution of Thailand's potential realistic export opportunities in the world according to relative market position and market characteristics
Distribution of Thailand's potential realistic export opportunities in ASEAN+3 according to relative market position and market characteristics
Distribution of Thailand's realistic export opportunities in thousand US$ in ASEAN+3 with RCA ≥ 0.7, according to relative market position and market characteristics
Top 10 of Thailand’s realistic export opportunities in ASEAN+3 in potential export value.
Comparison of the utilisation of Thailand’sREOs in the world
How the DSM resultscanbefurtherused? • Export promotion strategies per REO based on Thailand’s market share per REO and of import market characteristicsper REO • Evaluation of export promotion activities • DSM for services
STRATEGIES OFFENSIVE MARKET EXPANSION DEFENSIVE MARKET MAINTENANCE OFFENSIVE MARKET EXPLORATION
BREAKING IN TAKING ADVANTAGE GROWING & CONSOLIDATING HOLDING THE FORT STRATEGIES LEAP-FROGGING JUMPING ON THE BANDWAGON
Spearman correlation coefficients between the export promotion activities of Export Vlaanderen and all realistic export opportunities, SITC product groups (2 digit), by country (1999-2003) EVALUATION