2005 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits

1. Federal Aviation Administration 2005 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits John Sloan Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation May 26, 2005

2. Introduction Worldwide Commercial Launches • 2005 forecast: poised for moderate increase in NGSO launch activity • NGSO forecast includes payloads open to internationally competed launch services procurement and other commercially sponsored payloads • Payloads that generate launch demand • Typically no secondary or dummy payloads

3. Build Excel-based Traffic Model using constellation configuration and deployment schedule Identify & research all current and proposed NGSO systems Peer review final text Examine FCC licensing status Step 6 Step 4 Step 5 Methodology Review business and financial progress, satellite specifications, launch plans, and overall market status Step 3 Step 1 Step 2 Conduct interviews with companies and the FCC and survey launch providers on near-term manifest Review data with companies, update model, write report Step 7

4. Baseline Satellite Forecast 144 satellites 2005-2014; average of 14.4 per year 36% increase compared to last year 80 in 2003, 151 in 2001 forecast • 2005-2014 by sector • 60% International • Scientific/Other • 28% Telecommunications • 12% Commercial • Remote Sensing

5. Baseline Launch Forecast 64 total launches 2005-2014 25% increase compared to last year 51 launches in 2004 and 2003, 63 in 2002 • Average of 6.4 launches • per year • 2.5 medium-heavy • launch vehicles • 3.9 small launch • vehicles • 2005-2014 by sector • Int’l Scientific/Other • 44 launches • Remote Sensing • 13 launches • Telecommunications • 7 launches

6. Near-Term Manifest Note: includes only those payloads announced as of May 3, 2005

7. Baseline Forecast 2005-2014 • More satellites and launches in near-term • Most of the 2005 forecast increase is from International Scientific/Other • Big LEO and commercial remote sensing similar to last year • FAA increased number of mid- and far-term International Scientific/Other satellites compared to last year based on historical activity

8. Near-Term Satellite Mass • 11 more satellites under 200 kg compared to 2004 forecast • 10 more satellites in two heavier mass classes • (600 - 1,200 kg and >1,200 kg compared to 2004 forecast)

9. Trends in NGSO Forecast • More “Other” satellites • 5 SAR-Lupe radar satellites for the German Defense Ministry • 4 demonstration launches for Bigelow inflatable space habitat • Several systems making progress to enter future forecasts • Globalstar • Thinking about new system, 2 launches coming up, new investors • Iridium • Replacement plan with launches of ~1 or 2 per year over period ~10 years • Could award satellite manufacturing contracts in 2008 or 2009 • Satellite Radio for Europe could be in NGSO • Question of when not if • Orbital commercial human space flight • America’s Space Prize by 2010, sponsored by Bigelow Aerospace • Dnepr launch vehicle increase in activity • Twice as many launches in near-term forecast as last year • Low prices • New launch site under development at Dombarovsky

10. Factors That Affect Launch Demand • Strength of U.S. and international economy • Investor confidence • Government purchase of commercial services • Satellite lifespan • Need for replacement satellites • Business case changes • Regulatory and political changes • New markets • Successful prize competitions inspire other competitions

11. Historical and Forecast Launch Comparison

12. Forecast Launch Averages and Maximum Since 1998

13. The “2005 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts” report is available on the FAA/AST websitehttp://ast.faa.gov