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PILPS Update & Proposal

ENVIRONMENT. PILPS Update & Proposal. Ann Henderson-Sellers ANSTO Environment and Andy Pitman Macquarie University Sydney, Australia. PILPS Update August 2003. Arctic basin: ACSYS/PILPS completed with 17 papers in Special Issue of Global & Planetary Change (August 2003)

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PILPS Update & Proposal

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  1. ENVIRONMENT PILPS Update & Proposal Ann Henderson-SellersANSTO Environmentand Andy PitmanMacquarie UniversitySydney, Australia

  2. PILPS Update August 2003 • Arctic basin: ACSYS/PILPS • completed with 17 papers in Special Issue of Global & Planetary Change (August 2003) • Tropical forests: PILPS1(c) • still contributing to publs. (e.g. H-S & Pitman, 2002, BAMS) • Frozen soil and snow: PILPS 2(d) • generating publications & prompting questions • Luo et al. 2003, J Hydromet. (Valdai analysis) • Coupled PILPS/AMIP II DSP12 • LSS clusters and importance of LSSs in coupled models now demonstrated

  3. PILPS - still learning from off-line • Carbon fluxes: PILPS C1 • going very well; possible introduction to carbon isotopes • Arid environments: PILPS San Pedro • workshop this week (Bastidas & Gupta) • Isotopes in GLASS: IPILPS • proposal to be tabled today focuses on: • Stable water isotopes • Carbon isotopes • When do these updates go on the GLASS web page?

  4. PILPS Update - Highlights • Chronological sequence in LSSs • ‘simple’ schemes; SiBlings; current generation • Classes of carbon parameterisation • Rapid equilibrium of NPP & early CO2 sinks • Gradual NPP increase & net CO2 sink zero early • LSSs behave differently with different GCMs • Choice of LSS matters to climate prediction • VIC is a better surrogate for ‘truth’ than re-analyses for evaporation at least

  5. PILPS - still learning from off-line • Chronological sequence in LSSs • ‘simple’ schemes; SiBlings; current generation Which group is ‘best’????

  6. Land-surface Energy Partition Scatter along diagonal shows differences in partitioning surface available energy Scatter around diagonal due to predictions of different values of surface available energy Latent Heat Flux W m-2 • Energy budgets of 20 models (A-T) & 3 reanalyses

  7. LSS Clusters in All Climates SiBlings 3 clusters SiBlings Buckets SiBlings Buckets Buckets ENVIRONMENT SEBs normalised by ensemble of 3 re-analyses – Scaled sensible heat W m-2 Buckets; SiBlings; latest LSS Scaled latent heat W m-2

  8. PILPS - Off-line Links to GLACE • Chronological sequence in LSSs • ‘simple’ schemes; SiBlings; current generation • LSSs behave differently with different GCMs • Choice of LSS matters to climate prediction Coupling does not eliminate characteristics or impacts of LSSs

  9. Spatio-temporal Correlation • LH improves from Arid (worst) to E. Humid (best) Bucket • SH flows the other way • Bucket (O) SH v. small & low variability SiBling SiBling Bucket ENVIRONMENT • Climate trajectories differ for SiBlings & buckets

  10. Pseudo Land-surface Schemes • Apply in 3 basins: Amazon, Mississippi, Mackenzie Amazon • Forced by all AGCMs: rows • Find: • Agreement on main diagonal • PLSSs do a good job • Range for different forcings • LSSs respond to different AGCMs • ‘avg’ forcing is close to reported values • mean = good estmt. } Mississippi } Mackenzie • Derived a PLSS for every AMIP II model (A-T): columns Atmospheric forcing from AMIP AGCMs LH

  11. Pseudo Land-surface Schemes Atmospheric forcing from AMIP AGCMs Rank • Ranking predicted LHs • Stripes show LSSs often dominate over atmospheric forcing • in three diverse regimes: Amazon, Mississippi, Mackenzie • for 20 different AMIP II models and land-surface schemes Amazon Mississippi Irannejad et al., GRL 2003 Mackenzie

  12. PILPS Update - Highlights • Chronological sequence in LSSs • ‘simple’ schemes; SiBlings; current generation • LSSs behave differently with different GCMs • Choice of LSS matters to climate prediction • VIC is a better surrogate for ‘truth’ than re-analyses Generally, all known data have been (over) used for parameterisation – need new!

  13. VIC Best “Truth” for E/P Ratios VIC Obs BALTEX VIC closes water budgets & best at E/P Obs VIC Murray Darling Mississippi ENVIRONMENT AMIP models major basins

  14. Evaluating LSS Performance SiBlings best cf. VIC Intermediateclimates -reanalyses and current LSSs closely grouped Irannejad et al. 2003 find VIC is best surrogate for truth VIC ENVIRONMENT

  15. Isotopes in PILPS : IPILPS • Stable and radioactive isotopes are valuable for both tracing and dating • Stable water isotope measurements • Demonstrated that the Amazon recycles its water (3 or 4 times) • Prompted early GCM deforestation experiments (e.g. Henderson-Sellers & Gornitz, 1984) • Carbon isotopes differentiate C3 and C4 photosynthesis • Off-line (PILPS) inter-comparison is timely e.g. • “Heavy” water (HD16O & H218O) at the land surface • River routing schemes tested against GNIR – the Global Network for Isotopes in Rivers Gibson et al., EOS December 2002

  16. Recycling Small d18O Gradient 1980s 1960s GNIP Belem Sao Gabriel Manaus Porto Velo Izobamba Gradient ~ 1.5‰ per 103 km cf. 2.0‰ for Europe H-S, McGuffie & Zhang, J. Clim., 2002, 15, 2664

  17. Basin Isotope Modelling Enhanced D/H ratio Darling Manaus ENVIRONMENT • Isotopes provide an independent climate and water resource validation tool • Weakened signal in central Amazon (Manaus) indicates increased water recycling • Logarithmic enhancement in Darling reveals irrigation impacts H-S, Stone, McGuffie etc GRL, 2003,

  18. Darling River 2002-3 Drought Brisbane Sydney Jan 2003 Jul 2002 Melbourne Jan 2002 d18O and d D measured in 2002-3 drought Bourke Walgett Wilcannia Collarenabri Menindie Gunnedah Burtundy Tracing a non-linear relation

  19. IPILPS: New Data & Results Belem, Amazon d18O Belem dD Precip Vapour Simulated d18O Precip Simulations with ISOLSM ENVIRONMENT New isotopic data from Belem

  20. IPILPS Science & Timeline • QUESTION: Are the stores and fluxes of two different “heavy” water isotopes (HD16O & H218O) correctly characterised at the land surface? • TIMELINE: • August 2003: Approval by GLASS Panel • September/October 2003: • Quality control of the available isotopic & met./hydro. data • November/December 2003: • Experimental framework described and agreed • Water isotopes only or plus carbon isotopes? • January/February 2004: Call for participation to all current & past PILPS & AMIP II DSP 12 • April/May 2004: First workshop (possibly in Vienna) • December 2004: Publication of results

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