Vetting the GENESYS Model

1. Vetting the GENESYS Model Resource Adequacy Technical Committee MeetingPortland, OregonJune 23, 2011

2. Purpose • To ensure that the GENESYS model accurately represents how regional resources are used.

3. Method • Validation involves checking simulated resource dispatch against actual dispatch. • Patterns in the simulated dispatch are checked for consistency with actual dispatch patterns under various load, hydro and wind conditions.

4. How do we ensure that GENESYS accurately reflects resource operation? • Compare historical vs. simulated hourly dispatch • For aggregate resources types (hydro, thermal, wind) • For thermal fuel types (coal, gas, nuclear) • For individual resources • Check simulated dispatch for • Under-supply conditions • Over-supply conditions • Various wind and hydro conditions • Adequacy Forum’s technical committee is tasked with reviewing the simulation

5. Checking Simulated Dispatch • Check under-supply conditionsAll resources should be dispatched • Check over-supply conditionsAll resources that can be turned off should be off • Check individual resource dispatch • Ensure resources are dispatched in the right order (i.e. thermal displaced first when wind picks up) • Ensure individual resource dispatch makes sense

6. Caveats • The following slides show both simulated and actual resource dispatch • Actual resource dispatch is provided by BPA for its balancing authority area. • Simulated resource dispatch is produced by the GENESYS model and covers the NW region. • The scales are quite different and the relationships of loads to resources are different as well (e.g., for BPA hydro is much bigger than load).

7. Check Under-Supply Conditions

8. Actual Hourly Dispatch

9. Simulated Hourly Dispatch* *Not all resources are shown

10. Under-Supply Condition

11. Check Over-Supply Conditions

12. Actual Hourly Dispatch Hydro shows max flexibility including providing additional spill Thermal mostly off

13. Simulated Hourly Dispatch DEC minimum for within hour balancing(does not show the within hour variation)

14. Over-Supply Condition

15. Check Individual Resource Dispatch

16. SimulatedWinter* Dispatch forBennett Mountain (gas) Dispatched when needed *Summer capacity is 165 MW. On 1/31/11 it was dispatched at 182 MW.

17. Historical Daily DispatchBennett – August* 2010 *Summer capacity is 165 MW. On 1/31/11 it was dispatched at 182 MW.

18. Simulated Dispatch forBoardman (coal) Base loaded plant

19. Next Steps • Add seasonal capacity values to the simulation • GENESYS currently uses winter capacity values only because until recently the region focused on winter problems • Seasonal capacity values are easily added via data tables • Add ramping rate logic • First issue is to get good data • Logic to implement ramping is not yet in the model • Coal “day-must” run logic is in the model