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Jack Chen Committee Members: Brian Lamb, Hal Westberg, George Mount, and Alex Guenther

Short-Term Air Quality Forecasts for the Pacific Northwest and Long-Range Global Change Predictions for the US. Jack Chen Committee Members: Brian Lamb, Hal Westberg, George Mount, and Alex Guenther Washington State University May 4 th 2007. Air Quality Standards.

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Jack Chen Committee Members: Brian Lamb, Hal Westberg, George Mount, and Alex Guenther

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  1. Short-Term Air Quality Forecasts for the Pacific Northwest and Long-Range Global Change Predictions for the US Jack Chen Committee Members: Brian Lamb, Hal Westberg, George Mount, and Alex Guenther Washington State University May 4th 2007

  2. Air Quality Standards • Exposures to elevated levels of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matters increase respiratory illnesses, premature deaths, cardiovascular problems • Regional haze, degrade visibility • National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS):O3, CO, Pb, SO2, NO2, PM10, PM2.5,

  3. US EPA (2006) 5 NAAQS Pollutants4 NAAQS Pollutants3 NAAQS Pollutants2 NAAQS Pollutants1 NAAQS Pollutant US Regional Air Quality Counties Designated Non-attainment or Maintenance Most populated areas are in non-attainment or maintenance “Brown cloud” in Seattle

  4. Numerical Air Quality Forecasts • Short-Range Forecasts – hourly air quality predictions for the next 24 hours • Long-Range Predictions – general air quality conditions 50 years in the future from influence of global change

  5. Air Pollution Chemistry NOx + VOC + sunlight  O3 NOx (NO+NO2): Combustion sources, soils, lightening VOC: Combustion sources, solvents, trees, etc Clean Air Photochemistry • NO2 + hv NO + O • O + O2 O3 • O3 + NO  NO2 + O2 • RH + OH. RO2. + HO2. + R’CHO • RO2. + NO  NO2 + RO. • HO2. + NO  NO2 + HO. Urban Pollution Increase Ozone Production

  6. Air Pollution Chemistry • Primary Emissions: • Smoke, dust, flyash, pollens, etc. • Secondary formation: SO2 + [OH., O3, H2O]  H2SO4 NO2 + OH. HNO3 N2O5 + H2O  2 HNO3 NH4HSO4, (NH4)3H(SO4)2, (NH4)2SO4 NH4NO3 Aromatic HC or HC-8 + [OH·, NO3·, O3]  SOA SO2 NOx NH3 VOC

  7. Chemical Transport Model Forecast Air Quality Conditions Evaluate with Observational data Numerical Grid Model Forecast Meteorological Model Gridded Biogenic / Anthropogenic Emissions

  8. Gridded Emissions Short-Range Air Quality Forecast System: AIRPACT-3 • AIRPACT has been providing hourly air quality forecasts for the Pacific Northwest since May 2001 AIRPACT-1/2 AIRPACT-3 • O3 • CO • NO2 • Primary PM tracers • Secondary PM2.5 • PSO4, PNO3, PNH4, PEC, POC Forecast Meteorology (MM5) EPA:MCIP  CMAQ CALMET/MCIP CALGRID California Air Resources Board (1989) US EPA: (1999) • State-of-science knowledge in atmospheric chemistry and physics • Cloud effect on atmospheric chemistry • Multiphase chemistry (gas, aqueous, aerosol) and aerosol dynamics • CMAQ has a wide user community with active development and support from the public and EPA

  9. Gridded Emissions Short-Range Air Quality Forecast System: AIRPACT-3 Anthropogenic NOx Emissions Biogenic VOC Emissions 2005 Anthropogenic Emissions (SMOKE) EPA Biogenic Emission Model (BEIS3) Wild and Prescribed Fire Emissions WSU Dairy NH3 Emissions Module Dynamic Boundary Conditions EPACMAQ Dynamic Initial Conditions

  10. Short-Range Air Quality Forecast System: AIRPACT-3 AIRPACT-1, AIRPACT-2 • AIRPACT-1: 62 x 67 at 4-km • AIRPACT-2: 81 x 138 at 4-km • 13 vertical layers AIRPACT-3 • AIRPACT-3: 95 x 95 at 12-km • 21 vertical layers (first layer height at 16m) Elevation

  11. Dairy NH3 Emission Module

  12. Predicted 24-hr PM2.5 for Aug. 2006 WSU Pullman Wild and Prescribed Fire Emission from the Forest Service BlueSky System MODIS Image for Sept 5 2006 Observed Fire Events BlueSky System at Forest Service AIRPACT retrieves: fire location, fire size, heat flux, emissions (CO, PM2.5, TOG)

  13. AIRPACT-3 Evaluation • August – November 2004 • Covers both ozone and PM2.5 pollution seasons

  14. Daily Max 8-hr O3 Performance P/O vs Observed Timing errors (running 8-hr means)

  15. Overall Daily Max 8-hr O3 Performance

  16. Ranked Daily Max 8-hr O3 Performance

  17. Overall 24-hr PM2.5 Performance

  18. Stagnation Event (all units in μg/m3)

  19. Long Range Air QualityPredictions for the US • general air quality conditions 50 years in the future from influence of global change

  20. Global Scale Global Climate Model(NCAR-PCM) Global Chemistry Model (NCAR-MOZART2 ) • Gridded • Emissions • Anthropogenic • Biogenic • Wild Fire Impact of Global Change on Regional Air Quality • O3 • CO • NO2 • Primary PM tracers • Secondary PM2.5 Forecast Meteorology MM5 EPACMAQ Simulate two 10-year periods Current case (1990-1999) vs Future case (2045-2054)

  21. Long Range Predictions – Domain Left: Global Climate (PCM) and Chemistry (MOZART2) model domain. Right: Regional Meteorology (MM5) and Air Quality (CMAQ) model domain.

  22. Global Scenario on Future Air Quality?IPCC Global Emission Scenarios: A2—"Business as usual” 11 billion +1.5oC 70 Mt/yr 230 Mt/yr

  23. up to 500 mb

  24. Future Regional Anthropogenic NOx Current Decade Future Difference

  25. Future Regional Biogenic VOC Current Decade Future Difference

  26. Current decade: comparison of observed and simulated ozone distributions EPA – AQS ozone data for 1994-2003 Summer

  27. Current decade daily max 8-hr ozone (2nd, 20th, median, 80th and 98th percentiles)

  28. Measured Model [ppbv] Current decade episodic ozone conditions (98th percentile daily max 8-hr ozone)

  29. Current Future Mean summer daily max 2-m temperature Current vs Future Difference

  30. Future changes in daily max 8-hr ozone (2nd, 20th, median, 80th and 98th percentiles)

  31. Future Current Future Changesdaily max 8-Hr ozone (Episodic Condition - 98th Percentile) [ppbv] Difference

  32. Future ozone changes at select sites Eight sites across US with 98th percentile observed daily max. 8-hr O3 exceed the EPA 80 ppbv standard

  33. Future Changes in Episodic Ozone Season Average days per months across the eight sites.

  34. % change from current decade Consecutive days 8-hr daily max O3 exceed 80 ppbv Future Changes in Ozone Episode Duration

  35. Summary • Short-Term air quality forecasts • AIRPACT-3 with One-Atmosphere approach for PNW air quality • Includes dynamic treatment of anthropogenic, biogenic, dairy NH3 and wildfire emissions • Evaluation showed good forecast performances • Peak ozone values correctly predicted, but over-estimated low levels • PM2.5 concentrations were better captured in urban areas than rural regions • Good match with PNO3, PNH4 observations but underestimated PSO4 • Long-Range air quality predictions • Coupled global and regional AQ modeling system for the US • System reproduced current observed episodic ozone conditions • Under IPCC-A2 scenario, future 8-hr ozone increase by 5 to 10 ppbv • Larger areas of the US are impacted by ozone >80ppbv • Longer episodic ozone seasons and longer ozone episodes • Future land use have significant impact on biogenic emissions

  36. Acknowledgements • Advisor: Dr. Brian Lamb • Committee: Drs. Hal Westberg, George Mount, Alex Guenther • Funding from NW-AIRQUEST for the AIRPACT project • Funding from EPA STAR for the long-term AQ predictions project • Collaborating agencies: WA ECY, SWCAA, NCAR, USDA-FS, UW, EPA-R10 • Staff at the CE department office • Maureen Clausen, Lola Gillespie, Vicki Ruddick, Tom Weber, and Cyndi Whitmore.

  37. Acknowledgements • Past and present LAR graduate students • Dr. Mike Barna, Dr. Susan O’Neill, Dr. Guangfeng Jiang • Dr. Joe Vaughan, Dr. Shelley Pressley • Jeremy Avise, Tara Strand, Ying Xie, Farren Thorpe, Matt Porter, Charleston Ramos, Brian Rumburg, Obie Cambaliza … • Friends and Family

  38. Thank you! Questions?

  39. Presentation Outline • Background • Short-term air quality forecasts: • Modeling approach • Results • Long-term air quality predictions: • Modeling approach • Results • Summary and conclusion • Acknowledgement and questions

  40. Chemical Transport Model Conservation Equation in an Eulerian Framework (1) (2a) (2b) (2c) (3a) (3b) (3c) (4) (5) (6) (1) Change of pollutant concentration (2a,b) Horizontal Advection (2c) Vertical Advection (3a,b) Horizontal Dispersion (3c) Vertical Diffusion (4) Chemical Reaction (5) Deposition (6) Emission/Source Term

  41. 12-km MM5 Forecast Performance

  42. Columbia River Gorge (Bonneville Dam) POC PEC PSO4

  43. US Regional EmissionsCurrent (1000 tons/day) & future/current ratio

  44. Average daily max 8-hr ozone and 98th percentile daily max 8-hr ozone

  45. Future changes in average daily max 8-hr ozone and 98th percentile daily max 8-hr ozone

  46. Future Biogenic Emissions from Land Use, Land Cover Changes • Simulated future July months with different vegetation distributions Isoprene Emission Difference Case 4 – Case 1 Case 2 – Case 1

  47. Change LULC on Future Biogenic Emissions Total Continental Emissions

  48. Change LULC on Future Ozone and BSOA Average Continental Concentrations

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