MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

1. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme MEDEX IMPLEMENTATION Agustí Jansà (*), INM, Spain Pinhas Alpert, TAU, Israel Philippe Arbogast, Météo-France Andrea Buzzi, ISAC, CNR, Italy James Doyle, NRL, USA Vassiliki Kotroni, NOA, Greece Climent Ramis, UIB, Spain Evelyne Richard, LA, France Antonio Speranza, Univ. Camerino, Italy And Members of MEDEX Advisory Group (*) jansa@inm.es

2. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme • General objective of MEDEX: • The improvement of knowledge and forecasting of the cyclones • that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean area Specific objectives (MEDEX phase 1, 2001-2004): (a)  To implement a dynamic climatology of the cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean, to know the types of cyclonic structures that appears related to high impact weather events, if any. This is a necessary step to evaluate the potential impact of the improvement of the forecasting of cyclones on the prediction of the high impact weather itself. It is also necessary to know how representative is the work done on the base of a selection of particular cases. (b)   To determine and rank the multiple geographical and meteorological factors that are acting in the generation and evolution of the different types of cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean. (c)   The identification of sensitive areas where better initial conditions may likely lead to improved forecasts. Closely connected with the former objective is an assessment of the impact of additional observations in sensitive areas. Based on systematic data, covering every day along a period Based on selected cases

3. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Priority tasks for MEDEX phase 1 (according the WWRP/SSC Resolution about MEDEX, Sep. 2000) • a.    Identify the nature, availability, and usefulness of data presently not available on the GTS, and to start concentrating these data in a MEDEX database. • b.    Identify a set of cases where high impact weather was poorly forecast and conduct co-ordinate, in-depth case studies that include considerations of forecast skill and societal impacts associated with both the event and the poor forecasts. • c.    Conduct NWP studies to identify sensitive areas where the addition of observations would most likely lead to improved forecasts and their related benefits. • d.    Conduct research to identify physical and dynamical hypotheses that might form the basis of developing improved forecast techniques for Mediterranean cyclones.

4. MEDEX objective Type of data Area Details Dynamical climatology Rainfall and wind Inner Mediterranean All peak values that overpass defined thresholds, since 1995. Analysed fields Inner Mediterranean (at least) 4 daily at standard levels, al least since 1995. Sensitivity to factors (validation) Rainfall and wind Inner Mediterranean All data in the affected area for selected events only. Radar and other non-conventional Inner Mediterranean All data in the affected area for selected events only. Impact of observations Upper air data Outer Mediterranean (Eastern Atlantic incl.) All data in sensitive areas for selected events only. Surface data Outer Mediterranean (mainly inner area) All data in sensitive areas for selected events only. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Identify the nature, availability, and usefulness of data presently not available on the GTS Establishment of the MEDEX database • Steps: • Definition of data requirements (made, preliminarily) • Identification of available data (made, preliminarily) • Implementation of the MEDEX database (under study the feasibility of implementation of the database in INM-Spain) • Definition of data requirements (made, preliminarily)

5. P 39 W 25 RADAR 1 SYNOP 25 P 387 W 95 RADAR 1 SYNOP 8 P 80 W 20 RADAR 1 SYNOP 10 P 175 W 50 P 850 W 80 RADAR 2 LIGHT. SYNOP 60 P 1381 W 76 RADAR 7 LIGHT. SYNOP 191 P 49 W 27 RADAR 1 P 96 W 34 RADAR 1 P 29 W 29 SYNOP 40 PILOT 7 TEMP1 P 163 W 10 RADAR 1 LIGHT. P 400 W 120 RADAR 1 SYNOP 120 non-GTS data availability

6. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 2 Diagnostic studies and sensitive experiments (selected cases) Selection of cases 1995-2002 (This work is a necessary step for Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors, as well as for Identification of sensitive areas). • The point of departure has been a questionnaire submitted to the institutions that are participating in MEDEX. • Selection criteria: • High impact weather (mainly precipitation and wind) associated withcyclones affecting the Mediterranean area • Poor forecast skill • Adverse societal impact and possible mitigation depending on forecast skill • Sensitivity to initial condition and meteorological model used • Data base accessible (meteorological non GTS data, documentation on adverse weather impact and losses) • Events affecting more than one country (to favour interactions) • Events associated with different cyclone types and representative of all the Mediterranean subregions

7. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 2 Diagnostic studies and sensitive experiments (selected cases) Selection of cases 1995 - 2002 • More then 80 events were initially suggested by 17 institutions of 11 countries. • 27 among them constitute the present selection. • The pre-selection has been made according the following criteria: • Events affecting two or more contiguous countries. • Severe impact weather events (affecting one country only). • Additional events to ensure some degree of geographical 'balance'. NOTE: Information about societal impacts, degree of success of numerical forecasts and alerts is not always readily available, but a distinct progress was made in two iterations.

8. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Geographical cover of selected events

9. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 2 Diagnostic studies and sensitive experiments (selected cases) Selection of cases : emerged forecasting problems: • Forecast often difficult but skill gradually improving in time • Heavy precipitation (and consequences, mainly floods and landslides, also snow) most important, but also strong winds (damages, navigation, storm surges…) • Most of benefits from meteorological models (especially LAM's):, ECMWF, U.K.M.O., DWD (Europa, LOKALL M.), ARPEGE, ALADIN, BOLAM, QBOLAM, ETA, HIRLAM, LAMBO, MASS, MM5, RAMS...) • Identification of problemslimiting forecast skill.

10. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 2 Diagnostic studies and sensitive experiments (selected cases) Develop/test physical and dynamical hypotheses to form the basis of improved forecast techniques for Mediterranean cyclones • Investigate the physical role (in the formation and evolution of cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean) and model representation /assimilation of: • orography • surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat • latent heat release • upper level potential vorticity • low level jets

11. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 2 Diagnostic studies and sensitive experiments (selected cases) Case study by Delitala et al. (SAR - Sardinia) (impact of high res. forecast of precip., also ensemble fc.) BOLAM ECMWF 13/11/1999 00Z - ECMWF analysis

12. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 2 Diagnostic studies and sensitive experiments (selected cases) Case study by Romero et al. (UIB, Palma de M.) applying piecewise PV inversion technique PLINIUS CONFERENCE ON MEDITERRANEAN STORMS Two rotating upper-level positive PV anomalies Strong low-tropospheric warm advection Track, shape and intensity of the surface cycloneand the corresponding rainfall pattern are very sensitive to the embedded upper-level PV anomalies

13. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 2 Diagnostic studies and sensitive experiments (selected cases) Example of MEDEX-related activities at the National Observatory of Athens (Kotroni, Lagouvardos) 14-17 January 1995 multi-model case-study

14. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 2 Diagnostic studies and sensitive experiments (selected cases) Severe flood event of NW Italy, 13-16 Oct. 2000: example of hydrological-meteorological model coupling (ISAO Bologna, Univ. of Genova, Univ. of Brescia) Observed and hindcasted runoff at Toce Candoglia, using the DIMOSOP hydrological model, based on BOLAM forecasts for the period 2000-10-13 to 200-10-17 Accumulated precipitation exceeded 700 mm/96 hrs and 550 mm/48 hrs (14-15 Oct. 2000)

15. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Specific objective 3 Identification of sensitive areas for selected cases • The objective is to identify areas where better initial conditions may lead to improved forecast ofevents of high impact weather connected with cyclones. • The MEDEX project favours the case study approach on regional scale. • The computation of sensitivities requires adjoint model code. • In the case of the Mediterranean area, it is expected that diabatic processes will need to be included in the adjoint calculations. • Preliminary to OSSE experiments and to identification of observational needs.

16. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme The EUCOS study on Climatology of Sensitive Areas (Marseille & Bouttier, 2000) give us an idea about were are the most sensitive areas for Southern Europe

17. 6th Session of the Science Steering Committee for WWRP – Oslo, 15-19 Sep. 2003 • Responses to SSC/WWRP recommendations: • use the ERA40 reanalyses as quickly as possible to augment the cyclone data base. • invite societal and economic experts to take part regularly in MEDEX committee discussions

18. 6th Session of the Science Steering Committee for WWRP – Oslo, 15-19 Sep. 2003 References in the list of selected cases (MEDEX DB) [example]

19. 6th Session of the Science Steering Committee for WWRP – Oslo, 15-19 Sep. 2003

20. 6th Session of the Science Steering Committee for WWRP – Oslo, 15-19 Sep. 2003 (From Homar & Stensrud, 2003)

21. 6th Session of the Science Steering Committee for WWRP – Oslo, 15-19 Sep. 2003 The MEDEX Data Base

22. 6th Session of the Science Steering Committee for WWRP – Oslo, 15-19 Sep. 2003

23. This other example shows the evolution of the surface circulation and of the ratio between upper and lower level circulations during the evolution of the main cyclone associated to the high priority selected case of 9-13 Nov 01: In this case, the main cyclogenesis seems to have important low level contribution, later increasing the upper level weight.

24. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Work in progress on MEDEX case studies: HYDROPTIMET (Interreg III - MEDOCC) BOLAM, 18 km 94 mm BOLAM, 6 km 134 mm MOLOCH, 2 km 162 mm La Garde flood event, France, 9/9/2003

25. MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean WMO World Weather Research Programme Work in progress on MEDEX case studies: HYDROPTIMET (Interreg III - MEDOCC) BOLAM, 18 km 104 mm BOLAM, 6 km 116/102 mm Catalunia flood, 10/6/2000

26. 5th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms Ajaccio, Corsica, France 1–3 October 2003 Application of a nudging procedurefor rainfall assimilationto the 2001 Algerian Flood S. Davolio and A. Buzzi ISAC - Institute for Atmospheric Sciences and Climate CNR - National Research Council s.davolio@isac.cnr.it INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE , ISAC-CNR

28. C F Different rainfall patterns over the coast and south of the Balearic Islands Rain band missing in the forecast run Rain band and area of light rainfall around Sardinia Results

29. Impact on cyclone development and evolution F C 12 hours after the end of the assimilation