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Peace: the Future

Peace: the Future. What is Peace?. 1. The absence of war. The world has never been so peaceful. This is not the past. This is. What percentage of people lose their lives due to war?. Early human societies: ~25% 20 th century: <4% recent decades: <2%.

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Peace: the Future

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  1. Peace: the Future

  2. What is Peace?

  3. 1. The absence of war

  4. The world has never been so peaceful

  5. Thisis not thepast

  6. Thisis

  7. What percentage of people lose their lives due to war? Early human societies: ~25%20th century: <4%recent decades: <2%

  8. History’s trend has been a smaller and smaller percentage of the population engaged in war.And a smaller percentage of deathsfor both soldiers and civilians.This will continue

  9. 4types of conflict *Jonathan Schell

  10. 1 Total War

  11. WWII WWI Total War 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

  12. The early 20th century was humanity’s experiment in gazing as closely as possible to the brink of destruction, and then pulling back.

  13. 2 People’s War

  14. WWII WWI People’s War American Revolution Total War 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

  15. 3 Terrorism

  16. WWII WWI Terrorism People’s War American Revolution Total War 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

  17. Terrorism, by definition, is never as bad as it seems.

  18. It is a tactic used by non-state actors too weak to wage Total War or People’s War

  19. Thus, its rise can be seen as a (comparatively) positive trend: it signals a decline in the more violent types of conflict.

  20. 4 Nonviolence

  21. = Nonviolence

  22. Satyāgraha ( “ Truth-force ” )

  23. Violence sometimes achieves short-term objectives, but always leaves negativelong-term consequences.

  24. Carnation revolution – Portugal • People Power revolution – Philippines • Velvet revolution – Czech • Bulldozer revolution – Serbia • Rose revolution – Georgia • Orange revolution – Ukraine • Purple revolution – Iraq • Green revolution – Iran • Tulip revolution – Kyrgyzstan • Cedar revolution – Lebanon

  25. WWII WWI Nonviolence Terrorism People’s War American Revolution Total War 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

  26. So, why the shift? Total War People’s War Terrorism Nonviolence

  27. End of colonialism

  28. End of the Cold War

  29. Maps & borders codified

  30. State failure hurts everyone

  31. Global economic ties

  32. Biggest reason:

  33. The increase in the value of each human life. The realization that all are equal.

  34. Again, What is Peace?

  35. 1. The absence of war

  36. 2. Basic needs met. Percentage of world’s population living in extreme poverty

  37. 3. Wealth/abundance

  38. 4. Health Infant mortality rate

  39. 5. Equality

  40. 6. Freedom for all /equality of opportunity/ democracy / choice

  41. World literacy rate today:83% 1970: 63% 7. Education /creative fulfillment for all About 175,000 new blogs are created each day

  42. 8. Universal brotherhood

  43. 9. Utopia.Everything is perfect!

  44. This is impossible

  45. Peace is an ever-recedinggoal

  46. This is a good thing. It means our standards keep improving! • "People who live in a Golden Age usually go around complaining how yellow everything looks." • - poet Randall Jarrell

  47. So, the future of peace? We are destined for peace. But it’s not a single endpoint. By the standards of history, many parts of the world are already at peace.

  48. Jesse Richards www. secretpeace .com

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