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Embracing Failure: Creative Destruction and Its Consequences

Embracing Failure: Creative Destruction and Its Consequences. 2011 Swedish Schumpeter Lecture William B. Gartner. Does the Past Work?. Has it failed?. Traditions:. Are solutions to yesterday’s problems. - William B. Gartner . Past as Prologue:.

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Embracing Failure: Creative Destruction and Its Consequences

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  1. Embracing Failure: Creative Destruction and Its Consequences 2011 Swedish Schumpeter Lecture William B. Gartner

  2. Does the Past Work? Has it failed?

  3. Traditions: Are solutions to yesterday’s problems. - William B. Gartner

  4. Past as Prologue: Will what we learned about “yesterday” work today?

  5. George Santayana Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it

  6. Clarence Darrow History repeats itself, and that's one of the things that's wrong with history.

  7. Philip Guedalla History repeats itself. Historians repeat each other.

  8. Karl Marx History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.

  9. 1975 Inflation - 9% Unemployment – 9%

  10. 1975 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_qgVn-Op7Q

  11. Yogi Berra This is like deja vu all over again.

  12. Joseph Schumpeter This process of Creative Destruction is the essential fact about capitalism.

  13. Fortune 500: 1955-2010 http://fathom.info/fortune500/

  14. Failure Is the business environment.

  15. Apple Computer

  16. APPLE Stock Price 1984 - 2011

  17. Apple Product Time Line

  18. Apple

  19. Apple 1976: Apple 1

  20. Apple 1977: Apple II

  21. Apple 1980: Apple III

  22. Apple 1984: MacIntosh (9/84 - $25.12)

  23. Apple 1985: MacIntosh XL (9/85 - $ 15.75) * 1986: MacIntosh Plus (9/86 - $ 33.50) 1987: MacIntosh II (9/87 - $ 56.50)

  24. Apple 1988: (9/88 - $ 43.25) 1989: MacIntosh Portable (9/89 - $ 44.50) 1990: MacIntosh Classic (9/90 - $29.00)*

  25. Apple 1991: Quadra + Powerbook (9/91 - $ 49.50) 1992: (9/92 - $ 45.13) 1993: Newton (9/93 - $ 23.27)

  26. Apple 1994: (9/94 - $33.69) 1995: (9/95 - $37.25) 1996: (9/96 - $22.19)* 1997: G3 (9/97 – $21.69) **

  27. Apple 1998: (9/98 – $38.13) 1999: IBook (9/99 - $63.31) 2000: (9/00 - $25.75)

  28. Apple 2001: IPod (9/01 - $15.51) 2002: (9/02 - $14.50) 2003: ITunes (9/03 – $20.72)

  29. Apple 2004: (9/04 - $38.75) 2005: (9/05 - $53.61) 2006: MacBook (9/06 - $76.98)

  30. Apple 2007: IPhone, Nano, Touch (9/07 - $153.47) 2008: IPhone 3G (9/08 - $113.66) 2009: IPhone 3GS (9/09 - $185.35)

  31. Apple 2010: IPad (9/10 - $283.75) 2011: IPad 2 (9/11 - $381.32)

  32. Apple Persistence pays off?

  33. Apple Success comes out of failure?

  34. Apple All good things must come to an end.

  35. Michael Jordan http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45mMioJ5szc

  36. Sports Play by Rules Competition is Visible Understandable Score Keeping Failure is not Devastating (You Play Again)

  37. Suggestions For Failing Transparency of Process (Know That You Are Failing!)

  38. Suggestions for Failing Affordable Loss

  39. Suggestions for Failing Measurable Milestones (Outcomes)

  40. Suggestions for Failing Uncertainty and Ambiguity Requires Experimentation

  41. Suggestions for Failing In Order to Fail You Have to Try.

  42. Innovation Requires Diversity Evolution begins with variation.

  43. Winners and Losers

  44. Heinz von Foerster Act always so as to increase the number of choices. Handle stets so, daß die AnzahlderWahlmöglichkeitengrößerwird.

  45. Creative Destruction Evolution is not “progressive.” There is no inevitability that we will be better off.

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