WP 4

1. WP 4 Transition towards post-carbon societies

2. Task 4.1 : Driving socio-economic forces and actors, acceptability, heritage, policies Leader: LSC Task 4.2 : Risks and governance in the transition process towards post carbon societies Leader: TSE Task 4.3: Young people’s human capital and social capital in a post carbon social life Leader: UP

3. Task 4.1 : driving socio-economic forces and actors, acceptability, heritage, policiesObjective Understanding the role of inertia forces, time lags for changes and ruptures, actors behaviours, driving forces, in the transition process towards post carbon society; feed-up chronology for related inputs for VLEEM and POLES models.

4. Progress • Literature analysis, identification of relevant phenomena • Fine tuning of theoretical framework and methodology • Test experiments on anticipating experiences • Identification of actors who promote energy transition (cf. also database)

5. Research framework • A theoretical setting • A “conjecture” on energy transition • Two matrices to detect relevant empirical phenomena

6. Anticipatory experiences as “Gestelle” We are going to study experiences that anticipate the energy transition: • in localised geographical areas; • possibly covering different domains (transport, urban land use, buildings, renewable energy, etc.); • including actions with material and operational consequences (e.g. not purely educational or awareness raising interventions); • having social impact (i.e. no purely technical experiments). They are Gestelle (Heidegger) in the sense that they were somehow “implanted” in social reality.

7. Socialization We assume that these anticipatory experiences or Gestelle, like all new technological innovations (in broad sense), in order not to be just “imposed” need to be socialized among the different concerned actors.

8. Regimes The context in which such socialization should take place is that of certain “regimes” through which societal functions are performed (namely the energy production and distribution/ consumption functions).

9. Regimes/2 We conventionally identify three regimes including different types of actors: • R1: Energy production and distribution: energy utilities, ESCOs, Energy agencies, NGOs, policy makers and regulators specialised in energy issues • R2: Energy consumption at the individual/household level: citizens as individuals and as part of communities, groups, etc. • R3: Energy consumption at the collective/institutional/corporate level: private companies (as consumers), public administration bodies and agencies (as consumers).

10. Regimes/3 • Regimes are not just sets of actors. They include: • Structures (norms, rules, organisation, constraints/enablements, etc.) • Social capital (trust, cognitive capital, social responsibility.etc.) • Agency (meaningful social actions, intentions to change, etc.)

11. Social capital • Social capital is crucial since it is the element which keeps regimes “together” in a state of (dynamic) equilibrium. • Social capital is continuously put under stress and reconstructed in different forms.

12. Endogenous stress • With the energy transition, we suppose that the three regimes are exposed to stress. This stress comes first of all from within regimes, as it usually happens when technological innovation takes place (e.g. conflicts and competition between actors, difficulties for citizens and companies in accepting/adopting the new technologies or behaviours, problems with maintenance and support networks, etc.). • We call this stress “endogenous”.

13. Exogenous stress • However, dynamics related to technological innovation in the energy domain are not the only sources of stress. Other important change processes - or “transitions” - occurring in contemporary societies put energy regimes under pressure. These processes produce, among other things, a number of “stress vectors” for energy regimes. • We call “exogenous stress” the stress produced by these stress vectors.

14. Stress vectors • Anthropological stress vector (changes in gender roles and relations, ageing of population, multiethnic societies, etc.) • Social stress vector (new forms of poverty and social exclusion, crisis of welfare systems, etc.) • Political-institutional stress vector (increasing importance of non-state actors, both grassroots ones and supranational/multinational ones). • Scientific-technological stress vector (continuous scientific progress, accelerating technological innovation).

16. The conjecture • Our conjecture is that the success of transition towards a post-carbon society will be conditioned by the ability of regimes to keep or rebuild their social capital in such a way to sustain the pressure of endogenous and exogenous stress: ET | I (SCR1, R2, R3) > I (ENS + EXS) • Ruptures in the transition will be perhaps points at which the stress will be so high to overwhelm the capability of regimes to maintain/rebuild their social capital.

17. Matrix 1: regimes and their components Observable phenomena of endogenous stress and change

18. Matrix 2: Regimes and exogenous stress vectors Observable phenomena of exogenous stress and change

19. Methodology by June 15th • Identification of experiences through consultation of experts + call to ca. 800 PACT database addressees + internet search by July 31st • Documentary study on a number of anticipating experiences by October 15th • Interview to key informants for a selected number of anticipating experiences by December 31st • Drafting a repertory of phenomena on energy transition and a working paper • Five focus groups with key informants • Consultation of experts by March 31th • Final report