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Theoretical Framework 理论框架 Adaptation Planning as a Learning Process 适应性规划 —— 学习的过程

Theoretical Framework 理论框架 Adaptation Planning as a Learning Process 适应性规划 —— 学习的过程. ACCC Methods Meeting Xilinhot, IM June 8-12, 2010 . Climate Science. Extremes modeling. NX : Ningxia province IM : Inner Mongolia province GD : Guangdong province AP : Adaptation Planning

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Theoretical Framework 理论框架 Adaptation Planning as a Learning Process 适应性规划 —— 学习的过程

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  1. Theoretical Framework理论框架Adaptation Planning as a Learning Process适应性规划——学习的过程 ACCC Methods Meeting Xilinhot, IM June 8-12, 2010

  2. Climate Science Extremes modeling NX: Ningxia province IM: Inner Mongolia province GD: Guangdong province AP: Adaptation Planning WR: Water Resources ECM: Eco-compensation Mechanism V&C: Vulnerability & Capacity DRR: Disaster Risk Reduction Global & regional Modeling Integration for user-friendly output Dissemination Provincial down-scalling Impact assessment (eco-sys) NX: Agro eco-sys Yellow River Basin WR IM: Grassland GD: Health & disease risks Specific Reports Evaluating Climate Risk NX：Agro-industry & Farmer’s income IM：Livestock industry & herdsmen GD：risk loss of health；damages of extremes, etc. Climate and Insurance Risk loss assessment Prov. V&C assessment ECM in River basin mangt Socio-econ. Scenarios Financing Mechanism Adaptation planning Methodology & identify adapt. measures CBA analysis on adapt. NX：Agriculture IM：Livestock & herdsmen GD：Public health; DRR Adaptation Strategic Report in China Provincial APs in NX, IM, GD (Roadmaps) 2010.01 2010.06 2010.12 2011.06 2011.12 2012.12 ACCC Project Roadmap

  3. 气候科学 极端气候事件风险模拟 气候模式的整合 用户友好型成果 全球&区域气候模式 成果散发培训 省级气候模式细化 宁夏农业影响评估 影响评估 黄河流域水资源影响评估 内蒙草原生态系统 主要疾病风险影响评估 分报告 风险损失评估 气候风险损失评估 宁夏：农业&农民收入 内蒙：草原畜牧业&牧民收入 广东：健康风险的经济损失；极端气候灾害风险损失评估 气候保险案例研究 省级综合脆弱性评估 流域管理案例研究 社会经济情景分析 适应资金机制等 适应规划 适应规划方法学 & 适应对策选择 适应成本效益分析 宁夏：农业 内蒙：草原畜牧业 广东：公共健康；防灾减灾 中国适应战略研究报告 省级适应规划 （适应路线图） 宁夏，内蒙，广东 2010.01 2010.06 2010.12 2011.06 2011.12 2012.12 ACCC 项目路线图

  4. Adaptation Planning: A Learning Process Climate Impact Assessments Steps in Adaptive Planning Scoping Vulnerability and Risk assessments Identification of adaptation options Analysis and Evaluation of Options Prioritization of options Stakeholder Engagement New Knowledge • We will know… • Strengths and weaknesses for planning • Key stakeholders and resources • Current institutional adaptive capacity (baseline) • Metrics for assessing long-term progress • We will know… • Who is vulnerable and most at risk • Socio-economic drivers of vulnerability • Other vulnerability and risk factors • Systemic thresholds • People’s attitudes towards climate risks • Possible social and environmental impacts • We will know… • Costs and benefits of options • Cost effectiveness of options • Technical feasibility of options • Possible social and environmental impacts Final Products Provincial Adaptation Roadmaps 12th Five Year Plan Recommen-dations Stakeholder Engagement

  5. 适应性规划：一个学习的过程 气候影响评估 适应规划 步骤 范围界定 脆弱性与 风险评估 适应方案 识别 方案分析与评估 方案优先级排序 利益相关方参与 新的知识 • 我们将会知道… • 规划的优势和劣势 • 关键利益相关者和资源 • 目前机构的适应能力(底线) • 评价长期进展的度量方法 • 我们将会知道… • 谁是脆弱的和最危险的 • 脆弱性的社会经济驱动力 • 其他脆弱性和风险因子 • 系统性阈值 • 人们对气候风险的态度 • 可能产生的社会和环境影响 • 我们将会知道… • 方案的费用和效益 • 方案的技术可行性 • 可能的环境和社会影响 最终成果 省级适应路线图 “十二五”规划建议 利益相关方参与

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