Intro to International Relations: Lecture 6: Democracies and War

1. Intro to International Relations:Lecture 6: Democracies and War Paul Poast, Ph.D.

2. Recall From Last Time • Puzzle of War • A Source of War: Uncertainty about intentions

3. Goals For Today • Given the puzzle, why war? (according to Neoliberal Institutionalism)

4. Why Did the US Enter World War I? “A steadfast concert for peace can never be maintained except by a partnership of democratic nations….The world must be made safe for democracy….” - Woodrow Wilson, Address to Declare War, April 2, 1917.

5. Democracies are nice…to one another “Democracies don’t attack each other” - President William Clinton, 1994 State of the Union Address.

6. Democracies are nice…to one another “the daily work of democracy itself is the path of progress. It teaches cooperation, the free exchange of ideas, and the peaceful resolution of differences.” - President George W Bush, 2003.

7. Democracies are nice…to one another “And we’ll continue to promote democracy and human rights and open markets because we believe these practices achieve peace and prosperity.” - President Barak Obama, 2013.

8. Democracies are nice…to one another “the closest thing we have to an empirical law in the study of international relations” - Jack Levy, “Domestic Politics and War”, 1988

9. Democratic Peace Theory • Democracies do not fight wars between one another • Democracies rarelyfight wars between one another

10. Democratic Peace = Neoliberal Approach “[The democratic peace] poses an apparent anomaly to realism…[The claim holds that] liberal ideas cause liberal democracies to tend away from war with one another…[One reason for this is that] Liberals believe that individuals everywhere are fundamentally the same, and are best off pursuing self-preservation and material well-being. Freedom is required for these pursuits, and peace is required for freedom; coercion and violence are counter-productive.” - John Owen, How Liberalism Produces Democratic Peace, 1994.

11. Three Questions • What is a democracy? • Is it really the case that democracies rarely/never fight one another? • If yes to #2, why?

12. Question 1: What is a Democracy?

13. Democracy as a Regime • Regime = system of government • Monarchy • Military Dictatorship • Single Party Government • ``Democracy’’

14. Democracy by the Polity IV Project • Executive recruitment • Constraints on executive authority • Political competition • Leads to 21 point scale (10 to -10) • Democracy is typically Polity Score of 6 or greater.

15. Is Polity a good measure? • Consider the Untied States • Polity Score in 2015: 10 (full liberal democracy) • Polity Score in 1849: 10 (full liberal democracy) • Hmmm… …Slavery? …Women with right to vote?

17. Question 2: Do Democracies Never/Rarely Fight One Another? • Use Polity IV data and Interstate War Data (IWD) • Between 1816 and 2007: • In 2 of 88 wars, democracies (by Polity) fight one another • Latvian War of 1918 to 1920: UK, France, Estonia v Germany • Turco-Cypriot War of 1974: Turkey versus Cyprus • Lower threshold slightly adds two more wars • Spanish-American war of 1898 (Spain had Polity = 4) • Arab-Israeli war of 1948 (Israel had Polity =10, Syria had Polity=5) • Before 1816? • War of 1812: US had Polity = 9; UK had Polity = -2

18. Question 3: Why?

19. Proposed Mechanisms D P

20. Proposed Mechanisms D M P

21. Proposed Mechanisms • Selection Effect • Better Fighters

22. Mechanism 1: Selection Democracies are Choosy “[if] the consent of the citizenry is required in order to determine whether or not there will be war, it is natural that they consider all its calamities before committing themselves to so risky a game.” - Immanuel Kant, Perpetual Peace, 1795

23. Selection: How? • Electoral Incentives • Public Good Provision

24. Electoral Incentives

25. Public Good Provision

26. Mechanism 2: Better Fighters in Wars Democracies are Tough

27. Democracies are Tough All Wars from 1816 to 1990

28. Better Fighters: why? • Better Morale • Raise Money • Rarely Fight Alone

29. Better Morale ``Equality is a good thing. Evidence for this is the fact that while they were under tyrannical rulers, the Athenians were no better in war than any of their neighbors, yet once they got rid of their tyrants, they were by far the best of all. This, then, shows that while they were oppressed, they were, as men working for a master, cowardly, but when they were freed, each one was eager to achieve for himself.’’ -- Herodotus History of the Persian Wars (re Greco-Persian Wars of 499 to 449)

30. Raise Money ``Accumulated capital, not forced exactions, is what sustains wars’’ – Thucydides

31. Rarely Fight Alone

32. Not a mechanism: Democracies are “nice”

33. Democracies are…mean?

34. American Indian Wars

35. US Treatment of Native Americans

36. US Treatment of Native Americans ``Here in the East [Ukraine, Poland, Russia] a similar process will repeat itself for a second time as in the conquest of America’’ - Adolph Hitler, 1941

37. What explains the democratic peace? But has something to do with democracies being choosy, tough, and mean ?

38. Counter Argument Spurious Correlation

39. Counter Argument

41. Counter Argument

42. Counter Argument

43. Commercial Peace: Old Idea • Montesquieu (1748): “The natural effect of commerce is to bring peace” • Immanuel Kant (1795): “The spirit of commerce…cannot tolerate war” • John Stuart Mill (1848): “It is commerce which is rapidly rendering war obsolete”

44. Wrapping Up… According to Neoliberal Institutionalism: Having states with democratic domestic institutions appears to make the anarchic system less violent… …but not sure why. Next Time: Finished with Violence, on to Exchange