Is there a physical model of oil depletion? Yes!

1. BUTHubbert “analysis” is only curve fitting, no predictive power, only appeal to precedent. Not science! Is there a physical model of oil depletion?Yes! First simplification: separate discovery from extraction

2. Model of Oil Production Field discovery is dispersed by fallow delay until infrastructure is built then full production This plot adds a few more steps We model these intervals as distributions over the historical range: (Vertical axis is volume of oil in this state) The process progresses as if the original discovery is shifted in time & smeared out … Same area State of the oil

3. Smoothing spreads a distribution Two distributions, one is viewed thru a window that is slid over other to form weighted average output. Their instantaneous product (= area) is plotted as line, smoothing (spreading) the original distribution. Pattern of oil discovery, smoothed

4. Dispersed Delay on Campus This is what each delay looks like. Triple smoothing leads to last

5. Field discovery “back-dated” to yr of initial discovery then dispersed gives D(t). But actually several yrs to reach full operation: fallow delaythen buildup infrastructure then full production Apply triple time-smoothing to discoveries D(t) Each smoothes D(t) more, with long tail. So much for discovery, what maps it to production?

6. Simply multiply by extraction rate E(t) Extraction rate China <- to map discoveries to production Opec Texas Railroad Commission to conserve Oil during WW II Discoveries uncontrolled Dynamics of recent oil production seem to be very simple: Petro engineers extract 2-3.5% of what’s left annually

7. A random generated example discovery production Increasing fraction of oil recovered barely shifts the peak right

8. A physical model makes testable predictions & gives uncertainties Work in progress by Foucher (Logi Energy, NYC) ? Official IEA 2010

9. Field-by-field depletion would tell us the whole PO story • That governments have not demanded these data from ME NOCs is telling • Numbers provided are suspiciously unchanged yr to yr • no published contingency plans for oil shortages • US strategic petroleum reserve = 44 days of 2012 full crude oil, then rationing • We remain very vulnerable to “oil shock” supply disruptions, especially refinery sabotage/damage

10. Coal • Land plants