Introduction to risk assessment and management in developing countries

1. Introduction to risk assessment and management in developing countries Scira Menoni– Politecnico di Milano

2. Index • Risk mitigation as part of sustainable development • Urban areas at risk in developed and developing countries • Basic components of risk definition • Conditions of multirisk/multihazard • What can be done? Mitigation measures • How assessment tools support mitigation measures

4. Idea of the course: provide the basic concepts of risk analysis, risk assessment, risk mitigation and prevention in an international context and as a development issue

5. World wide natural disasters (Source: Munich Re, 2005)

6. World wide cost of natural disasters (Source: Munich Re, 2005)

8. The cost of natural disasters in Europe Damage in US $ (,000). Source CRED EM-DAT (from 5 to 20 bn US $/y)

9. Yearly cost for landslides damage in some Countries and comparison with GDP* * GDP is 2000 data, while the total cost is an average value coming from variuos sources, manily Schuster, 1999 and CNR/GNDCI. Canadian losses are from P. Bobrowsky (Head, Canada Landslide Loss Reduction Program)

10. Victims in world, Europe, Japan and Italy World – (1900-2004)Source CRED EM DAT Europe - Source CRED EM DAT (1900-2004) Italy - Victims last 50 yy (Source ENEA) Japan - Victims 1967-2002

12. How are development and risk linked? • Disaster risk is lower in high development countries than in low development countries. • Development processes intervene in the translation of physical exposure to hazards into disaster risk Earthquakes: countries with rapid urban growth Tropical cyclones: countries with large rural populations and a low rank on the Human Development Index (HDI). Floods: countries with low GDP per capita and low local population densities • Source UNEP

13. Developed countries Urban areas and megacities at risk Fig. 3. Percentage of the number of disasters registered from 1900 until 1999 by regions of the world (Source: EM-DAT database). Developing countries

14. increasing vulnerability? Why the increasing trends? • More people and more complex societies – Great concentrations of people in urban areas • More structure – much of its aging – Particularly in urban areas • Choices – where to live, work, play and travel – Urbanization of societies – most along coasts and rivers • Human intervention in the environment – Emission of pollutants and greenhouse gases It is estimated that natural disaster losses will increase dramatically over the next 50 years. The global cost of natural disasters is anticipated to top $300 billion annually by 2050 (UNISDR 2001). Two broad demographic trends directly impact the increasing losses from natural hazards in the developing world: population growth and the concentration of populations in megacities.

15. Economic losses due to natural hazards in the years 1950-2002 (Source: Munich-Re)

16. Comparison between losses and number of event in the last 40 years

17. Comparison between death toll and economic losses worldwide

18. We may go on with data and statistics, but let’s stop here and point out that: * Natural hazards have always been a major issue (when disaster stroke) and still are, though with a slight change in the relative proportion of death toll and economic losses; * Victims and losses are unevenly distributed in the developed and developing world; * There are other causes besides events’ severity to explain victims and losses (exposure and vulnerability)

19. You cannot reach sustainability without risk prevention. Why? Without prevention you put at risk present and future generations Costs of repair (and human and economic harm) is unduly paid by large sectors of society, particularly in developing countries Many times unsustainable practices also increase risk

20. A definition of safety: A dynamic ‘non-event’ (Karl Weick)

21. What kind of risks? Connected to events for which a clear impact zone and time of occurrence can be identified

22. What risk is all about? It is about assigning probabilities to events 2. About comparing negativities 3. About establishing thresholds

23. Problems:1. Not enough historical data2. Enough historical data but not enough knowledge regarding the phenomena3. Subjective rather than objective probabilities Assigning probabilities to events

24. Problems:1. Subjective probabilities are influenced by experience2. Social perception is the issue3. Public versus private risks Comparing negativities

25. Problems:1. What are the criteria?2. How criteria are related to the way risks are measured?3. Who decides? Deciding thresholds of acceptable risk

26. Acceptable thresholds cannot be derived from estimated probabilities You should estimate not only the hazard but also the vulnerabilities &

27. Because acceptable thresholds can’t be derived from probabilities; 2. Because risks are context-related; 3. Because you can’t separate social, political, economic and technical issues properly

28. You can’t rely on one discipline only; 2. You need both analytical and synthetic views of problems it is a matter of “Mandated science” (L. Salter, 1988)

29. Technical expertiseSocial sciences * Analytical * Synthetic * Quantitative models * Rarely or poorly (mainly for the hazard) quantitative * Poorly context related * Context sensitive (vulnerability)

30. What can be done to mitigate risks? Risk assessment Risk mitigation measures: structural and non structural, long and short term Implementation tools: laws, regulations, directives, economic tools –insurance, incentives, taxes- voluntary….

31. What can be done to mitigate risks? Risk assessment Risk mitigation measures: structural and non structural, long and short term Implementation tools: laws, regulations, directives, economic tools –insurance, incentives, taxes- voluntary….

32. RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY(Exposed systems)

33. Brief definition RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY(Exposed systems) RISK measured in terms of expected damage HAZARD = characteristics of the dangerous agent (phenomena) VULNERABILITY= propensity to damage, fragility (Exposed systems)= number and dimension of people and goods in a dangerous area

34. In developing countries…. More EXPOSURE More VULNERABILITY More HAZARD RISK measured in terms of expected damage

35. Furthermore, multiple threats are not so uncommon, unfortunately many times in megacities in developing countries

36. While the vulnerability of small states, particularly islands should not be disregarded (lack of resources)

37. What can be done to mitigate risks? Risk assessment Risk mitigation measures: structural and non structural, long and short term Implementation tools: laws, regulations, directives, economic tools –insurance, incentives, taxes- voluntary….

38. Short term measures RISK PREVENTION (OR MITIGATION?) Long term measures

39. Risk assessment tools (to feed prevention measures) Risk prevention measures Land use planning Structural measures PRA * re-develpment Hazard Exposure Physical vulnerability * restauration * relocation Deterministic scenario * zoning Socio-economic vulnerability Systemic vulnerability Support to implementation * Disclosure * Communication Complete event scenario * Insurance; * tax incentives; * td/p rights

40. Risk mitigation measures: structural and non structural, long and short term

41. Planners do different things in Europe dealing with spatial planning; summarizing and comprising different schools of thought and practice: rural to urban (development) Transform land uses urban to urban (restoration, redevelopment) urban to rural rural to rural Preserve land uses urban to urban

42. Wider context of development and redevelopment (so in developing countries specific factors pertaining for example to illegal/self construction and financial constraints must be considered) Land use planning must be considered in a wider context Wider context of sustainibility (how development and land use planning may support environmentally sustainible practices and compatible with ecosystems) Is risk prevention part of sustainibility?

43. land use planning in hazardous areas include as a crucial objective risk prevention (in order to maintain the same assets needed for people’s life, social and economic future) as part of ordinary activities Land use planning in hazardous areas prevention is neither economically (discount rate) nor politically convenient should the community consider this essential (community? other actors?) the “tragic choices” dilemma

44. land use planning in hazardous areas Where: hazards, exposure and vulnerabilities are high How?Depend on risk assessment for planning purposes Densities and concentration of: hazards, exposure and vulnerabilities Type of land uses: influencing hazards, exposure and vulnerabilities (including type of population)

45. land use planning in hazardous areas physical component: hazards, physical vulnerability (to multiple stressors) Densities, concentration and specific features of: hazards, exposure and vulnerabilities systems complexity – inter-dependency; interconnectedness; non linear relations • social and economic vulnerabilities: • population (features, prepared.) • institutions/organisations • economic structure/activities

46. A framework to address land use and spatial planning decisions