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World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water

WMO. World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water. DRR Programme Strategy and Implementation Framework With linkages to climate change adaptation By Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme, WMO

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World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water

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  1. WMO World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water DRR Programme Strategy and Implementation Framework With linkages to climate change adaptation By Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme, WMO 1st Meeting of the Task Team on “Meteorological Services for Improved Humanitarian Planning and Response 31 August – 2 September 2010 www.wmo.int

  2. About WMO

  3. World Meteorological Organization • Specialized Scientific and Technical Agency of the UN • Non-resident agency • 189 Members • Governing bodies: Congress and Executive Council • WMO Secretariat based in Geneva • Works with research community, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, Space Agencies of its Members

  4. WMO Governance and Institutional Structure 10 Technical Programmes WMO Secretariat (Geneva) Global/ Regional World Weather Watch (WWW), World Climate Programme (WCP) Atmospheric Research & Environment Prog (AREP) Applications of Meteorology Prog (AMP) Hydrology & Water Resources Prog (HWRP) Education & Training Programme (ETR) Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) Regional Programme (RP)P WMO Space Programme (SAT) Disaster Risk Reduction Programme (DRR) 3 World Meteorological Centres (WMC) 6 Regional Association (platform for consultations and consensus) 189 Members ‘National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) Global Climate Centers & Regional Climate Centers 8 Technical Commissions CBS CHy CCl CAS CIMO CAeM CAgM JCOMM 40 Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres (RSMC) 30 Regional Training Centres (RMTC)

  5. WMO Coordinates International Research Programmes in Weather and Climate World Climate Research Programme (with UNESCO/OIC, ICSU), World Weather Research Programme Natoinal Operational forecasting systems Northern AtlanticOscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation UNFCCC negotiations IPCC Assessments

  6. WMO Leverages International and Regional Cooperation: Coordinates Operation Meteorological Network to support National Meteorological and Hydrological Services 189 Members

  7. Presentations • WIGOS/WIS (D. Thomas, M. Berechree) • RSMCs, RCCs and Drought Monitoring Centres (P. Chen, K., Kolli, L. Malone, R. Stefansky) • Global Framework for Climate Services (L. Malone) • WMO Service Delivery Framework (H. kootval, W. Grabs, P. Chen, L. Malone, M. Golnaraghi) • Regional Training Centres (J. Willson) • Role of Technical Commissions (G. Fleming, A. Pietroniro, G. Van Langenhove, S. Mason, R. Martinez)

  8. Example of how the Operational WMO Network Supports National Early Warning Systems Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme

  9. Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs) Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) RCC Network Nodes (Pilot) The Climate Information Challenge to Support Climate Adaptation – What is WMO doing? Montreal Exeter ECMWF Moscow Seoul Beijing Toulouse Tokyo Washington Lead Centre for LRFMME Pretoria Melbourne Lead Centre for SVSLRF SVSLRF: Standardized Verification System for Long Range Forecasts LRFMME: Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble Background on the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)(L. Malone) CLW/CLPA/WCAS

  10. Simplified Schematic of Linkages Climate Adaptation Multi-sectoral planning and risk management Climate Mitigation Emission reduction Incremental cumulative risk Disaster Risk Management Meteorological, Hydrological and climate extremes Geological

  11. WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme was established in 2003 to …Leverage WMO research and Operational Capacities to Address Information Challenge in DRM at all levels

  12. Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007) Loss of life Number of events Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc Economic losses 90% of events 70% of casualties 75% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.

  13. Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural hazards (1980-2007) Number of events Loss of life Economic Losses Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

  14. Disasters impacts many sectors! Hazard, vulnerability and exposure on the rise ! Need for Multi-sectoral riskmanagement Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes are on the Rise ! Energy Aral Sea Transportation Water Resource Management Intensity Strong Wind People Agriculture Urban areas Heavy rainfall / Flood Drought Heatwaves Frequency

  15. Paradigm shift from post disaster response to Disaster Prevention and Preparedness • In most countries disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response (humanitarian issue!) • In 2005 168 countries adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005-2015 (Kobe, Japan) • New paradigm in disaster risk management focused on reducing risks through prevention and mitigation (Development issues) • International community is working to assist countries in implementing the HFA Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM provides a wide range of opportunities for meteorological, hydrological and climate services!

  16. Development of WMO DRR Strategic priorities approved by CG XIV Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (World Conference on Disaster Reduction) WMO Strategic Plan 2008-2015 (Top Level Objectives and Five Strategic Thrusts) Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National network and partners WMO strategic priorities in Disaster Risk Reduction

  17. WMO DRR Programme Framework Derived from HFA (2005-2015) Alignment of clear policies, legislation, planning, resources at national to local Levels (Multi-sectoral, Multi-agency) 1 Risk Assessment Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Historical Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and forward looking hazard trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools Preparedness (saving lives):early warning systems emergency planning and response Prevention (Reduction of economic losses):Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) 2 CATastrophe insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives 5 3 4 Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training across agencies 6

  18. WMO Strategic priorities and Action Plan for Disaster Risk ReductionApproved by WMO Congress - XV To implement WMO DRR priorities through regional and national projects, with following end results: • Modernized NMHSs and observing networks. • Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems. • Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment capacities to support risk reduction and risk transfer. • Strengthened NMHSs cooperation and partnerships with civil protection and other disaster risk management stakeholders. • Trainedmanagement and staff of NMHS • Enhanced ministerial and publicawareness

  19. Understanding the Risks Provides Evidence for Preventing Disaster Risks! Hazard Analysis and Mapping Exposure and Vulnerability Potential Loss Estimates This information is critical for decision-making and development of strategies to reduce the risks Number of lives at risk • $ at risk • Destruction of buildings and infrastructure • Reduction in crop yields • Business interruption • Impacts: • population density • agricultural land • urban grid • Infrastructure • Businesses Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping Need for historical and real time data Statistical analysis tools climate forecasts and trend analysis Need for Socio-economic impacts data and analysis tools Need for risk assessment tools combining hazard, asset and exposure information

  20. Early Warning Systems Require Coordination Across Many Levels and Agencies 2 1 3 4 National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms

  21. There is need for investments in all Components of Early Warning Systems ! 1 National Government DRR coordination mechanisms Local Governmentresponsible for emergency preparedness and response Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination 4 warnings warnings feedback feedback 3 4 5 5 Community Prepared Capacity Development and Coordinated National Technical Agencies 2 4 Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Health, Agricuture (etc.) warnings feedback 5

  22. Example: Documentation of Good Practices and develop Guidelines for Institutional Partnerships in Early Warning Systems Guidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with Multi-Hazard Approach Planning, legislative, financing, Institutional Coordination and Roles of NMHS Synthesis of First set of 7 Good Practices (4 more in the pipeline)Role of National Metrological and Hydrological Services Japan Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme Cuba Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System France “Vigilance System” Shanghai Multi-Hazard Emergency Preparedness Programme USA Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Germany The Warning Management of the Deutscher Wetterdienst First EWS Publication of a seriesbeing published in 2010and together with a technical WMO guidelines. Next Phase: Concept of Operations and Service Delivery Issues

  23. …. to support sectoral risk assessment and management! Infrastructure and Urban planning Land zoning Insurance / Finance Agricultural productivity and food security Tourism Health epidemics Water resource management Climate forecasting and trend analysis tools provide unprecedented opportunities

  24. Climate Services are Critical for (Re)Insurance Markets and other Risk Transfer Mechanisms Which Risks? What type of Financial tools? Who Could Benefit? Requirements for Hydro-Met Services? Financial risks CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Regional Catastrophe Insurance Facilities Other emerging products Historical and real-time data (Fundamental for development of these markets!) Seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts Decadal climate trend analysis Long term trend analysis (long-term market strategy) Government Companies Individuals Other WMO Workshop: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html

  25. Systematically linking know-how, capacity development to national and regional projects Monitoring and Evaluation Training, Institutional Capacities Building, sharing good practices and lessons learnt linked to projects • National and Regional Projects • Implementation of end-to-end projects, Identification and Documentation of Good Practices and learning Lessons Development of Guidelines based on Lessons Learnt

  26. Example of Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services in Risk Reduction(Many other examples exist) DECISION MAKERS • Emergency Services • Government Authorities • Insurance • Public, Media • Local – National Government • Insurance • Suppliers • Public, Media • Urban planners • Local to national Governments • Banks • Insurance • Negotiators • Parlimentarian • Local/nationalgovernments • Private sector • Urban & coastal Emergency Preparedness • Inventory: Food, Construction Materials, Shelter, Emergency funds • Strategic Planning • Building codes • Infrastructure & Urban Development and Retrofitting • Land Zoning and Planning • International negotiations and agreements • National policies and legilation DECISIONS • Emergency planning activation and response • Evacuations, inventory, preparing houses SERVICES Future Decadal trend analysis: of severity and intensity of tropical cyclones Climate Change scenarios – IPCC Process Short to medterm weather forecasts: Tropical cyclone Forecasts and warnings Probabilistic seasonal forecasts: Probabilities of severity and intensity of tropical cyclones Next hour to 10 days Decade Season to year Long term Scenarios

  27. DRR Programme Implementation Strategy

  28. WMO DRR Implementation Strategy: Development of regional and sub-regional strategies: Challenges of NMHS (providers of Services) to meet DRM demands? WMO DRR Survey 2006 Other WMO national assessments carried out since 2006-present Institutional Capacities and Receptivity of DRM Stakeholders (Users of Services ) to NMHS Surveys conducted by UN-ISDR, UNDP, the World Bank, regional partners and others (2006 – forward) Challenges for engaging NMHS with the DRM stakeholders (Institutionally and Operationally)?

  29. Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses 44/48 92 % 18/22 82 % 25/34 74 % 10/12 83 % 14/19 74 % 24/52 54 % 74% + response rate http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html

  30. Major challenges for NMHS to be addressed Systematically through DRR Implementation Strategy: Another view Under estimated Around 60% of the NMHS are challenged in meeting needs in DRM!

  31. Major challenges for NMHS to be addressed Systematically through DRR Implementation Strategy: another view • 70% of countries need amendments or restructuring of their national policies and legislation • Reflection of the role of NMHS in policies, legislation, plans • 65% NMHS need strengthening or full modernization of infrastructure • Observations, forecasting systems, communication, data management, etc • 80% NMHS need technical and management training : • Hazard data bases, mapping and analysis and (meteorological, hydrological and climate) forecasting tools, • 80% of NMHS need strengthening or building multi-sectoral institutional partnerships, coordination and service delivery • e.g., emergency services, infrastructure and planning, etc)

  32. Long-term strategy with phased project implementation approach Project Identification Planning Expansion Each cycle 1 – 2 years Implementation Sustainability Reporting & Evaluation

  33. Criteria for DRR Project Development (1) Alignment with WMO disaster risk reduction strategic goals Built on priorities, requirements and needs of Members at regional, sub-regional, or country-grouping levels Projects have national development complemented with regional cooperation (4) Involve integrated planning, budgeting, implementation (leveraging WMO and external partners’ expertise and resources) (5) Result-based approach (Outcomes, deliverables, timelines) (6) Must be scalable and ensure sustainability of capacities overtime (7) Ensure end-to-end solutions to the Members leading to better decision-making capacities (8) Well defined resource mobilization strategy for implementation

  34. Building Close Relationship and Track Record with Implementing Partners and Strategic Donors… • Identifying strategic partners and building long-term relationship: • Identification and understanding of the priorities of strategic partners • Their engagement in the project development from the early stages • Fund raising strategy • Fund-raising opportunities for strengthening of the NMHS through the post disaster humanitarian and development mechanisms • Flash Appeal (was used for upgrade of GTS in Indian Ocean, now for Haiti) • Post Disaster Needs Assessment and Country reconstruction plan (first time for Haiti) • Long-term coordination with donors • Bilateral • Multilateral • Development Banks, etc..

  35. Engage in regional cooperation projects with strategic partners that influence National/Regional DRR Programmes, Capacities and Funding

  36. Two Types of National/Regional DRR Projects initiated (2007 – Present) (Potential Pilots) Type I: Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects with World Bank, ISDR, UNDP and WMO Central Asia and Caucasus (2009 – ongoing) Special project: WMO Shanghai MH-EWS Demo South East Europe (2007- present) South East Asia (early 2010 – ongoing) Central America and Caribbean (2010- ) SADC (2011 -) Type II: Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects in end-to-end Multi-Hazard EWS

  37. Thank You For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel. 41.22.730.8006 Fax. 41.22.730.8023 Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int http://www.wmo.int/disasters

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