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MBA SIM Fund 2014-2015 MBA Presentation – May 1, 2015

MBA SIM Fund 2014-2015 MBA Presentation – May 1, 2015. James Lyle. Aishwarya Srinivasan. Nic Kostman. Noel Hill. Eugene Lee. Jeremy Mortensen. Tyler Blue. Rob Bayless. Agenda. Dividend Premium Strategy Review Strategy Operations Operational Challenges Performance Strategy Accuracy

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MBA SIM Fund 2014-2015 MBA Presentation – May 1, 2015

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  1. MBA SIM Fund 2014-2015 MBA Presentation – May 1, 2015

  2. James Lyle Aishwarya Srinivasan Nic Kostman Noel Hill Eugene Lee Jeremy Mortensen Tyler Blue Rob Bayless

  3. Agenda • Dividend Premium Strategy Review • Strategy Operations • Operational Challenges • Performance • Strategy Accuracy • Returns • Attributions • REITs • Strategy Review • Performance

  4. Dividend Premium Strategy

  5. SIM Fund Objectives • Apply range of course principles to fund management • Utilize resources to maximize learning • Manage scope • Portfolio Model • 85% - Quantitative Strategy (core) • 15% - REITs (diversification)

  6. Dividend Stock Pricing Anomaly • Why does it exist? • Mutual fund demand to pass through dividends (Harris, Hartzmark, and Solomon 2014) • Cash guarantee

  7. Dividend Stock Pricing Anomaly • “…Companies have positive abnormal returns in months when they are predicted to issue a dividend.” • (Hartzmark & Solomon 2012) Div Declared Div-Ex Sell (Div-Ex) Buy (Div Declared -1)

  8. Exclusionary Rules • Traded in the Russell 1000 Index • Domiciled in the US • Market Cap over $10 billion • Excluded sectors: Insurance, Banks, Utilities, REIT • Quarterly Dividends over the past year • Universe: 191 securities • Cap holdings at a maximum of 80

  9. Weekly trade schedule Old New

  10. Investment Universe

  11. Strategy Operations

  12. Operational Challenges • Reconciliation • Sensibility Checks • Solutions • Weekly process rotating reconciliation responsibilities. • Differences in opinion of what is “sensible,” • Established foundation rules such as industry momentum, insider trading, negligent operations, but some decision making was on a case-by-case basis.

  13. Cash Management • Solutions • Overweighting • Initial purchase • Post–purchase overweighting prioritized based on closest forecasted declaration date. • Indexing • Insufficient Cash • Prioritized purchases based on closest forecasted ex-date

  14. Performance

  15. Strategy Accuracy • 19.6 days of average lead time in purchasing vs. actual announcement date • 0.4% of planned purchases missed announcement date (1 of 226) • 25% of Sell transactions on Ex-date vs. post-Ex. • Average Holding Period: 34.5 Days • Std Dev = 16 days • Range: 7 to 99 days • Actual vs. Hartzmark and Solomon

  16. Returns vs. S&P500 11/17/14 - 4/17/15 • Portfolio • Total Return +4.02% • Dividend Strategy Return +4.25% • Tracking Error (Annualized) 4.59% • Std. Deviation (Annualized) 11.13% • Sharpe Ratio 0.52 • S&P500 • +2.59% • 13.37% • 0.56

  17. Dividend Yield • Dividend Yield Return Contribution: • 5.16%

  18. Attribution

  19. Strategy Tapering • Back to the Russell 3000 • Dividend run-up period eventually falls outside of our time horizon • Fiduciary Responsibility

  20. REITs Strategy

  21. REITs – Overall strategy • Approximately 15% of total portfolio • Primary purpose (for us) was diversification • Focused on ETFs with low expense ratios, high trading volumes, and high assets under management • Also filtered out REIT ETFs from non-reputable companies

  22. REITs – Holdings

  23. REIT Returns • Total Portfolio: 8.52% • Annualized: 20.73% • Benchmarks:

  24. Daily Correlation of Returns

  25. SIM Fund Learning Points • Implementation is easier said than done • Cash management is an everyday task • Effective reconciliation requires a solid process design • Dividends yields have surprising magnitudes that look great at first

  26. Thank you Questions?

  27. Appendix

  28. Dividend Premium Strategy

  29. Distribution of projected dividend declaration dates # of securities Trading week (week 1 = 11/20/2014)

  30. Weighting strategy

  31. Weighting strategy - traps

  32. Anticipated attrition of Week 1 purchase over 14 weeks

  33. Returns vs. Russell 3000

  34. Returns vs. Russell 1000

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