1 / 26

Chinese Yuan/Dollar Exchange Rate: A Historical Review and Future Perspective

Chinese Yuan/Dollar Exchange Rate: A Historical Review and Future Perspective. Yong Cao, Ph.D. Rashmi Prasad, Ph.D. University of Alaska Anchorage World Trade Center Alaska November 02, 2011. China Yuan/Dollar Exchange Rate. Why it is important: Influence China’s purchasing power

sutton
Download Presentation

Chinese Yuan/Dollar Exchange Rate: A Historical Review and Future Perspective

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Chinese Yuan/Dollar Exchange Rate: A Historical Review and Future Perspective Yong Cao, Ph.D. Rashmi Prasad, Ph.D. University of Alaska Anchorage World Trade Center Alaska November 02, 2011

  2. China Yuan/Dollar Exchange Rate Why it is important: • Influence China’s purchasing power • The customers in China will have higher purchasing power with Yuan appreciation • Influence American consumer’s social welfare • Consumer good in major us retailers will be more expensive with Yuan appreciation • Influence the global financial markets • Speculation of Yuan appreciation will cause in-flow of large amount of foreign currency • Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act-October 03 2011 • Controversial • Positive vs. negative for different actors

  3. Yuan vs. Dollar: A Historic Review

  4. Period 1: Before 2002

  5. Period 2: 2002-October 2003

  6. Period 3: October 2003-July 2005

  7. Period 4: July 2005-July 2008

  8. Period 5: August 2008-December 2009

  9. Period 6: December 2009-July 2010

  10. Period 7: July 2010-Present

  11. The Negotiation Strategies and Interactions between China and the United States

  12. Will stronger Yuan reduce the U.S. trade deficit? [T]here is little evidence that a stronger yuan would reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China or improve the jobs picture. -----by James A. Dorn, Forbes.com on October 4, 2011.

  13. Major US manufacturers and retailers do not support Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act • Boeing • Apple • Wal-mart

  14. Will stronger Yuan force global firms to move manufacturing function back to US?

  15. The major reason behind the global manufacturing firms to stay away from US • The legal environment • The legal cost • The government’s different attitude towards business operations

  16. Eugene Smith Grant Photography for Humanistic Award Winner-- Lu Guang

  17. Jiangsu-Taixin

  18. Henan-Anyang

  19. Zhejiang--Xiaoshan

  20. Guangdong-Shantou

  21. Jiangsu--Changshu

  22. Hebei-Shexian-Tianjin

  23. Who will be the winner in this game? • US-based hedging funds • US-based exporters • Upper class in China • 15% already immigrated to overseas • 40% more are doing now • Investors who are the early entrants in China’s market—particularly before 2008 • Labor-Union?

  24. Who will be the loser in this game? • Global-Capital Intensive Manufacturers. • (e.g. Gen Electric) • Global-Labor-Intensive manufacturers. • relocate to Vietnam, Mexico. Central America, and Bangladesh • Local Manufacturers • Importers who import goods from China • US consumers

  25. Future perspective • Election syndrome • RMB’s globalization

  26. Q&A ?

More Related