Global Logistics Scenarios of 2025 Strategic Planning for Logistics Service Providers - EURAM 2006 Doctoral Colloqui

2. Contents. Key Problem of Dissertation Relevance of the Topic Research Questions and Aim of the Dissertation Contribution to Practice and Scientific World Research Methodology

3. Key Problem of Dissertation. Predominant trends in the logistics service industry Internationalization/ globalization Increasing competition Developments in information and communication technology Increasing complexity in logistics transactions Higher customer demands on quality and availability of the service Faster changing business environments and demands (�Uncertainty�-factor) The major worldwide trend towards outsourcing Logistics service market is shifting from a demand-driven market to a supply-driven market Logistics service providers are forced to continuously seek after ways to defend their market position resp. to establish competitive advantages R&D/ Innovation management attains more attention in recent times Logistics management is seen as a strategic issue nowadays ? Application of tools from strategic management becomes advisable ? Scenario technique is of particular interest due to its numerous benefits Benefits of scenario planning: Scenario planning offers the opportunity� �to think in multiple alternative pictures of the futures �to enhance the individual and corporate perception �to integrate intuitive (qualitative) and formal (quantitative) planning �to develop strategies for different future developments �to react faster on future developments and consequently to establish competitive advantages �to partly form future services/ markets �to stimulate people to think �to deal with complexity in a structured manner �to provide a communication and management tool Sources: van der Heijden 2002; Gausemeier et al. 1996; Fink et al. 2003Benefits of scenario planning: Scenario planning offers the opportunity� �to think in multiple alternative pictures of the futures �to enhance the individual and corporate perception �to integrate intuitive (qualitative) and formal (quantitative) planning �to develop strategies for different future developments �to react faster on future developments and consequently to establish competitive advantages �to partly form future services/ markets �to stimulate people to think �to deal with complexity in a structured manner �to provide a communication and management tool Sources: van der Heijden 2002; Gausemeier et al. 1996; Fink et al. 2003

4. Relevance of the Topic [1/2] � Futurology and in particular Scenario Planning in Logistics have up to now not been sufficiently examined yet. Long-range planning/ strategic planning: ~ 100 articles Futurology: ~ 80 articles; 8 books Scenario planning: ~ 160 articles; 20 books Future: ~ 160 articles/ studies; 20 books

5. Relevance of the Topic [2/2] � Scenario Planning and Logistics Practice, up to now a rare Combination. Seither hat die ScMI AG mit mehr als Zweidrittel der deutschen Top20-Unternehmen im Bereich des Szenario-Management� zusammengearbeitet. Gemeinsam mit ihren Kunden hat die ScMI AG mehr als 200 Szenarioprojekte in 17 L�ndern durchgef�hrt Die Geschka & Partner Unternehmensberatung wurde 1983 von Prof. Dr. Horst Geschka mit dem Schwerpunkt Innovationsmanagement gegr�ndet. Unser Team umfasst elf Mitarbeiter; projektspezifisch kann auf ein Netzwerk erfahrener Moderatoren und Berater zur�ckgegriffen werden. Seit der Gr�ndung haben wir weit �ber 100 Beratungen und Workshops durchgef�hrt Seither hat die ScMI AG mit mehr als Zweidrittel der deutschen Top20-Unternehmen im Bereich des Szenario-Management� zusammengearbeitet. Gemeinsam mit ihren Kunden hat die ScMI AG mehr als 200 Szenarioprojekte in 17 L�ndern durchgef�hrt Die Geschka & Partner Unternehmensberatung wurde 1983 von Prof. Dr. Horst Geschka mit dem Schwerpunkt Innovationsmanagement gegr�ndet. Unser Team umfasst elf Mitarbeiter; projektspezifisch kann auf ein Netzwerk erfahrener Moderatoren und Berater zur�ckgegriffen werden. Seit der Gr�ndung haben wir weit �ber 100 Beratungen und Workshops durchgef�hrt

6. Research Questions and Aim of the Dissertation. How could alternative futures of the global logistics world in 2025 look like? What are the relevant influence factors for logistics service providers? How do possible future projections look like and what do they mean for logistics service providers? How does the customer of the future look like? How does the logistics service provider of the future look like? The aim of the dissertation is to develop global logistics scenarios of 2025 that logistics service providers can apply in order to derive alternative logistics strategies so that they can increase flexibility, improve reaction rate on changing environments and consequently establish competitive advantages.

7. Contribution of Dissertation to Practice and Scientific World.

8. Research Methodology � The Scenario Management Approach.

9. Empirical Research during the Scenario Management Process. Bsp. F�r Environment of industry: Customers (company size, culture etc.), markets (competition � intensity, organizational structure, etc.) Bsp. F�r global environment: society (demographics, income, mobility, etc.), environment (alternative energy, climate change), technology (ICT, automation level, knowledge management) Alternativ zu Survey 2: zus�tzliche Umfrage unter Logistik-BeraternBsp. F�r Environment of industry: Customers (company size, culture etc.), markets (competition � intensity, organizational structure, etc.) Bsp. F�r global environment: society (demographics, income, mobility, etc.), environment (alternative energy, climate change), technology (ICT, automation level, knowledge management) Alternativ zu Survey 2: zus�tzliche Umfrage unter Logistik-Beratern

11. Back-up Slides

12. Classification of Scenario Project.

13. References. Ballou, Ronald H. 2004: Business Logistics/ Supply Chain Management. Planning, Organizing, and Controlling the Supply Chain. 5th ed. Pearson Prentice Hall, New Jersey. Baumgarten, Helmut; Darkow, Inga-Lena and Zadek, Hartmut 2004: Strategien f�r Logistik-Dienstleister. In: Steuerung und Services in der Supply Chain. Logistik-Dienstleister managen globale Netzwerke � Best Practices. Baumgarten, H.; Darkow, I. L. and Zadek, H. (Eds.). Springer, Berlin et al., pp. 167-177. Christopher, Martin 2005: Logistics and Supply Chain Management. Creating Value-Adding Networks. 3rd ed. FT Prentice Hall, Harlow et al. Coyle, John J.; Bardi, Edward J. and Langley Jr., C. John 2003: The Management of Business Logistics. A Supply Chain Perspective. 7th ed. South-Western, Mason. Grant, David B.; Lambert, Douglas M.; Stock, James R. and Ellram, Lisa M. 2006: Fundamentals of Logistics Management. European edition, McGraw-Hill, London et al. Heinz Nixdorf Institute. Fachbereich Rechnerintegrierte Produktion, 2006. URL: http://wwwhni.upb.de/en/