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s park.ucar.edu /workshops. Greenhouse Effect Review. CO 2 absorbs heat in the atmosphere When heat accumulates in the Earth system, the average global temperature rises. Increased CO 2 & the Greenhouse Effect. When the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases ,

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  1. spark.ucar.edu/workshops

  2. Greenhouse Effect Review • CO2 absorbs heat in the atmosphere • When heat accumulates in the Earth system, the average global temperature rises

  3. Increased CO2 & the Greenhouse Effect • When the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases, • average global temperature rises. • Longwave radiation emitted by CO2 is absorbed by the surface, • so average global temperature rises

  4. Emissions -> More CO2 in Air -> Higher Temperature 18° 15°

  5. Climate Sensitivity - definition Whenever the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubles, average global temperature rises by 3 degrees Celsius. 18° 18° 15° 15°

  6. Learning from the Past (ice cores) Ice age Ice age Ice age Ice age

  7. CO2 Emissions – Where are we now? In 2013, CO2 emissions are around 10 gigatons (GtC) per year (10,000 million tons in units used on this graph)

  8. CO2 in Atmosphere – Where are we now? • For hundreds of thousands of years, CO2varied between 180 and 280 parts per million, beating in time with ice ages • Since the Industrial Revolution, CO2 has risen very rapidly to about 400 ppm today 396 ppm in 2013 iceage iceage iceage iceage

  9. Math of Climate Sensitivity When the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere doubles, temperature rises by 3°Celsius (about 5.4°F) Examples: • If CO2 rises from 200 ppmv to 400 ppmv, • temperature rises 3°C • If CO2 rises from 400 ppmv to 800 ppmv, • temperature rises 3°C • Note: as CO2 rises from 200 to 800 ppmv • (800 = 4 x 200), • temperature rises 6°C • ( = 2 x 3 degrees, not 4 x 3 degrees)

  10. Climate Sensitivity Calculator demo spark.ucar.edu/climate-sensitivity-calculator

  11. Climate Sensitivity Calculator Activity Use the calculator (previous slide) to determine the expected temperature for the various CO2 concentrations listed in column 1 of the table above (students fill in column 2); then have them graph.

  12. Advanced Climate Sensitivity Math T = T0 + S log2 (C / C0) T : new/current temperature T0 : reference temperature (e.g. 13.7 degrees C in 1820) S : climate Sensitivity (3 degrees C) C : new/current atmospheric CO2 concentration C0 : reference atmospheric CO2 concentration (e.g. 280 ppmv in 1820) Example: What is new temperature if CO2 rises to 400 ppmv (from 280 ppmv)? T = T0 + S log2 (C / C0) = 13.7 + 3 log2 (400/280) = 13.7 + 3 log2 1.43 = 13.7 + 1.54 = 15.2 degrees C

  13. Math of CO2 Emissions and Atmospheric Concentration Dry air mass of atmosphere = 5.135 x 1018 kg = 5,135,000 Gigatons CO2 currently about 599 ppm by mass (395 ppmv) = 0.0599% CO2 current mass = 0.0599% x 5,135,000 Gt = 3,076 Gt CO2 current emissions = 9.5 GtC/year Atmospheric fraction = 45% M = M0 + [0.45 x (3.67 x m)] = 3,076 GtCO2 + [0.45 x (3.67 x 9.5 GtC/yr)] = 3,076 + 15.7 GtCO2 = 3,092 GtCO2 CO2 concentration = 3,092/5,135,000 = 602 ppm by mass CO2 concentration = (602/599) x 395 ppmv = 397 ppmv (16 + 12 + 16) / 12 = 44/12 = 3.67 GtCvs GtCO2

  14. Poll: Rising Emissions ? • A ? B ? C

  15. Poll: Rising Emissions ? • A ? B ? C

  16. Poll: Emissions rise then steady ? • A ? B ? C

  17. Poll: Emissions rise then fall ? • A ? B ? C

  18. Very Simple Climate Model demo spark.ucar.edu/simple-climate-model

  19. Why does temperature continue to rise as emission rate declines? Atmosphere CO2 Emissions CO2 in Atmosphere CO2 Removal by Oceans & Plants spark.ucar.edu/climate-bathtub-model-animations-flow-rate-rises-falls spark.ucar.edu/imagecontent/carbon-cycle-diagram-doe

  20. Greenhouse Effect & Atmosphere Layers Model

  21. Initial State Lower Atmosphere Upper Atmosphere Earth

  22. Hour 1 – Step A - Radiate

  23. Hour 1 – Step B - Absorb www.cmmap.org/scienceEd/summercourse/summerCourse12/docs/SaturdayAM.pdf spark.ucar.edu/events/workshop-nsta-national-2013-climate-models

  24. Spark Workshops • Sunday 8-9 AM: Using Scientific Field Campaigns to Learn About Weather and Climate - Convention Center, 006B • spark.ucar.edu/workshops • Spark Booth #1818 • rrussell@ucar.edu • eastburn@ucar.edu

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