Argentina Vs. Chile: Delegative or Constitutional Democracy?

1. Argentina Vs. Chile: Delegative or Constitutional Democracy? Maxwell A. Cameron UBC Poli 332

2. Argentina • Pop 40 million • 1/3rd size of US • 0 migrants per 1000 • 97% white • 97% literate • GNP $585 billion • Per capita $14,500 • Gini index .49 • Debt $135 billion (51% GDP)

3. Chile • Pop 16 million • Smaller than BC • 4% Mapuche • 96% literate • GNP $250 billion • Per capita $15,400 • Gini index .55 • Debt $64 billion

4. Argentina has many advantages • Few mines, peasants (not an enclave or plantation economy) • Abundant land, “estancias” (ranches) • Hence less need for labor repression • Independence process less destructive than elsewhere • Not a major colonial center until after 1776 (when it became a viceroyalty) • Wealthy bourgeoisie (“Pampa bourgeoisie”) that produced cereal, wool, beef • Homogeneous population, large immigration from Europe

5. Yet a troubled History • Ruthless caudillos in the 19th century • Collapse of oligarchic state and rise of Radicals threatens elite interests • Military response and rise of Peronism in 1940s and 1950s • Military coups in 1960s and 1970s: bureaucratic authoritarianism • Democratic transition followed by neoliberalism delegative democracy under Menem • Financial chaos in 2001, rise of Kirchners

6. Challenges Unfulfilled • Transform pampa bourgeoisie into a modern agro-exporting capitalist class • Incorporate labor and solve the “social question” on the basis of constitutional representative democracy • Elite consensus on democratic system

7. Argentine Peculiarities • No peasantry - implications for class alliances • Early industrialization, extensive immigration and labor militancy • Volatile prices - implications for investment In short: no stable basis of domination, shifting alliances (populist alliance, reactionary alliance)

8. Peronism and Its Legacies • Fears of organized labor • Military coup of 1930 ousts Yrigoyen • Peron, secretary of labor, then elected • ISI strategy and labor incorporation • Ousted in 1955 • Frondizi’s impossible game • BA coups in 1966, 1976 • Dirty War and defeat in the Falklands/Malvinas

9. Menem and the Reinvention of Peronism • After Alfonsin: trials, debt, and hyperinflation • Menem emerges in 1989 with neoliberal strategy • Growth, stability … then collapse in 2001 • Riots, piqueteros, “que se vayan todos” • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rm97EeqKzsc

10. Emergence of Kirchners, Nestor and Cristina • Return to a heterodox strategy • Classic populist politics • Human rights trials • Problems with farmers

11. Is Chile a ‘Success’ Story? • Distant realm of Spanish empire • Relatively homogeneous population • Brief period of anarchy after independence • Strong democratic institutions • Sustained economic growth And yet: high inequality and incomplete democracy (authoritarian enclaves) Chile is a country that experienced a high level of polarization in its politics

12. Polarization • Mining economy - struggles over natural resources • Silver, copper, nitrates • Tradition of labor militancy • Especially around mining enclaves • Workers native born • Unlike in Argentina’s massive immigration • Strong socialist tradition within a strong democratic context

13. Chile’s History of Polarization • Chile has a strong and long-standing democratic tradition, but… • Within context of orderly rule, a struggle between president versus parliament in 19th century • 20th Century social question: Fear among oligarchs leads to pattern of reform and reaction, but mostly within the constitutional order

14. Overcoming centrifugal competition Building a durable political centre Radicalization of democracy Competitive elections (with 3 tendencies) Parties forced into coalitions Highly democratic (presidential) system Challenges

15. Allende’s (1970-73) Significance • Failure of reforms under Christian Democrats • Allende wins with 36 percent of vote • The “democratic road” to socialism • Populist economics • Nationalization of copper and other foreign firms • US destabilization - role of Nixon/Kissenger • Coup in 1973 - most violent in Latin America

16. Pinochet Regime (1973-1990) • Highly repressive - response to level of threat perception • Forerunner of neoliberalism (Chicago Boys) • Not a BA regime, but not personalist either • Legal dilemmas: defender of the constitution or violator? • 1980 constitution • 1989 plebiscite

17. Concertacion (1990-2010) • Alliance of Christian Democrats and Socialists (exclusion of Communists) • Neoliberal economy • Binomial electoral system • Symptoms of malaise: apathy, lack of party-society linkages • Does Chile need a “constitutional moment”? Aylwin 1990-94 Frei 1994-2000 Lagos 2000-06 Bachelet 2006-10 Piñera 2010-

18. Latin America’s Two Lefts • Nestor & Cristina Kirchner vs. Michelle Bachelet • Populism versus social democracy? • Governments of the left reflect countries in which they emerge • Argentina: lack of stable domination by Pampa bourgeoisie, weak state institutions, populism and anti-populism • Chile: high level of polarization, strong state institutions, influence of radical but democratic socialism, post-Pinochet depoliticization