Planning for National Statistical Offices A Canadian Government initiative

1. Planning for National Statistical OfficesA Canadian Government initiative A Preview Kigali, 13 January 2007

2. Planning in National Statistical Offices • What is it? • How is it to be presented? • For whom is it meant? • Where will sessions be held? • When is due to start?

3. Planning in National Statistical Offices What is it? • Background: the LFS in South Africa • Statistics Canada and planning • Before planning • The introduction of planning • Planning today • 3

4. Planning in National Statistical Offices • Idea to share experience • Questions about how to do it • Rejection of pure lecture course • Imperative of learning by doing • Issues about “how to do it”?

5. Planning in National Statistical Offices • Idea of simulation • Requirements for simulation • Model result • Model inputs • Creating materials • Doubts about relevance

6. Planning in National Statistical Offices • Universality of difficulties surrounding planning • Pressures • Constraints • Failure to predict today’s concerns in time • Education of users • Role of the press

7. Planning in National Statistical Offices Proposed solution • Fictitious country with pressures and problems • Fictitious NSO with assets and shortages • Requirement to see ahead for three years • And to plan in detail one

8. Planning in National Statistical Offices • Mechanism: table fiction • Require a plan • Submit plan to panel of objective examiners • Have authors defend their choices • Judge the result • Make judgement public

9. Planning in National Statistical Offices For whom? • Not for young professionals • Necessary to have experience • Required vision, scope and responsibilities • Immediate application • Hence: for senior executives

10. Planning in National Statistical Offices Advantages: • Creating networks • Working as organized group • Trading off contending pressures • Teaching administrative disciplines to statisticians • Taking them away from professional administrators • Experience with latter not productive

11. Planning in National Statistical Offices For professional administrators • Flat landscape; no mountains and valleys • For Head of NSO – Crags and troughs • Idea of uncertainty and need for contingency • The notion of reserve • The need to reallocate

12. Planning in National Statistical Offices New ideas not mastered by administrators • Uncertainty of outcomes • Need for contingency planning • Notion of reserve • Need to reallocate and reassign

13. Planning in National Statistical Offices Delivery of training programme • Creating dedicated groups • Not larger than 15 • Number based on experience • As homogeneous as possible • With variety of experiences • Provided with model output • Technical advisers • Key ratios

14. Planning in National Statistical Offices Questions to be discussed • Who should be targeted? • How long should simulation last? • How long should introductory period last? • How much guidance is required? • Should target country be hypothetical? • Can course takers be away from home that long?

15. Planning in National Statistical Offices Considerations • One week is not four • Four is not four times one • Qualitatively different • One week course is trivial • Not indispensable • One month simulation: unique

16. Planning in National Statistical Offices • Proposal before Canadian international funding agency- CIDA • In framework agreement between CIDA and Statistics Canada • Statistics Canada executing agency • Requirement for final approval and selection of designated course developers and course-givers

17. Planning in National Statistical Offices Elements of proposal • Venue: Statistics Canada in Ottawa • Programme: extends over three years • Starting time: April 2008 • Capacity: three cycles per annum • Nine cycles in total • Four in English • Four in French • Last: depending on residual demand. Portuguese?

18. Planning in National Statistical Offices Structure of cycle • Two weeks: lectures and workshops • Administrative curriculum inc. personnel; finance; financial outlook; dealing with Ministers; dealing with press; monitoring • Two weeks: discussing and drafting plan • Three days: presenting plan and commiting to specific application

19. Planning in National Statistical Offices • Course takers may choose extra week in Stats Canada in Ottawa or elsewhere in Canada • Canadian Government assumes all expenses • Expense for extra week charged to course taker

20. Planning in National Statistical Offices • During planning period: availability of Statistics Canada resources • Survey methodology; national accounts; census takers; etc. • Answer questions; no lectures • Course director • Cycle mentor • Cycle evaluation panel • Normally presided by Chief Statistician of Canada

21. Planning in National Statistical Offices • Nature of commitments • Sub-regional plan • Possibilities: Improvement of national accounts • Harmonization of CPI

22. Planning in National Statistical Offices • Caveats: • Not a commitment but a proposal • Regional insitutions will be notified officially once final approval is in • Method of selection • NSO’s must maintain management • Levels must be appropriate • How many per country?

23. Planning in National Statistical Offices • Nature of commitment • How to evaluate compliance • Ongoing evaluation • How much at home and how much abroad • Feedback

24. Planning in National Statistical Offices • No involvement of other agencies • But possibility of other agencies to buy space • Proposal before World Bank • Purchase of cycle • Limits to insertion • Possibility of WB bursary

25. Planning in National Statistical Offices • But nothing will move until we are certain that there is a demand for this initiative • My role is to determine the nature and size of the demand