ICES advice for 2008

1. ICES advice for 2008 Baltic Sea Martin Pastoors (chair of the Advisory Committee on Fishery Management)

2. Plenary meetings May 2007 Baltic Arctic Iceland & Greenland Faroe Islands Herring stocks North Sea (NEW !) October 2007 North Sea (updates) Celtic seas / West Scotland Bay of Biscay / Iberian Widely distributed stocks Advisory meetings (on fisheries)

3. Regional orientation • Advisory report organized by “Ecoregion”

4. Changes to timing of advice • EC has requested ICES to provide most advice before the summer • allows for stakeholder consultation processes • focus on long-term strategies • This year: North Sea as experiment • From 2008 onwards, for all stocks in EU waters • Still needs consultation on what type of advice

5. Three advisory committee’s Advisory Committee on Fishery Management (ACFM) Advisory Committee on Ecosystems (ACE) Advisory Committee on the Marine Environment (ACME) Layered system Expert groups Review groups (Subgroups) Advisory committee One (part-time) paid chair One advisory council oversee the advisory process make sure it adheres to quality standards Advisory “bureau” coordinate the advisory process 3-4 (part-time) positions Expert groups responsible for science AND drafting advice Review groups responsible for final advice Changes to ICES advisory structure Old New

6. Baltic overview

7. Stock trends: SSB

8. Stock trends: F

9. Stock trends: recruitment

10. Status of fish stocks (with assessments) SSB F Only for Ecoregion Baltic Sea“Unknown category” can includes stocks that are depleted or high

11. Advice overview

12. Cod management plan • ICES evaluation in 2005 • Target F of 0.3 – 0.6 (western Baltic) and 0.3 (eastern Baltic) would be suitable candidates • During ACFM • No final agreed management plan • Preliminary evaluation of proposal • Initial exploration of the proposed plan: • significant scope for interpretation • Unclear which F values should be used as reference F for the 10% reduction. • ICES proposes that further consultations between scientists, managers, and stakeholders be conducted for clarification of the proposed plan.

13. Cod Western Baltic (22-24) Eastern Baltic (25-32) Herring Main basin (25-32) Gulf of Riga Bothnian Sea (30) Bothnian Bay (31) IIIa and 22-24 Sprat Main basin Flatfishes Flounder Plaice Dab Turbot, brill Salmon 22-31 Gulf of Finland (32) Sea trout Baltic Sea By stock

14. Western Baltic Cod (22-24) home

15. Western Baltic Cod (22-24) • Assessment: • age based, 3 surveys, 2 commercial CPUE (reworked) • discards included • Issues: • Indications for misreporting, but not quantified

16. Western Baltic Cod (22-24)

17. Western Baltic Cod (22-24): retro

18. Western Baltic Cod (22-24) • Advice • Last year • Management plan under development but not implemented or evaluated • Advice based on precautionary reference points: keep stock above Bpa; maximum 20 500 t. • This year • Proposed management plan: 22 695 t. (15% change) • Advice based on precautionary reference points: bring stock at Bpa in 2009; landings 13 500 t.

19. Western Baltic Cod (22-24) Short term forecast

20. Eastern Baltic Cod (25-32) home

21. Eastern Baltic Cod (25-32) • Assessment • Age based, 2 surveys, 3 commercial CPUE • Discards and underreporting included • Issues • Underreporting (2002-2006: 35-45%) • Age reading problems; no major effort on perception. • Environmental conditions likely to remain poor for egg survival

22. Eastern Baltic Cod: estimating underreporting • Estimates were obtained from scientists of each of the countries contributing data. • Clustered country estimates: • Group A: Informal contacts with industry. RF = 1.2 - 1.5. • Group B: Informal contacts with industry and enforcement sources. Reduction in non-reporting compared to 2004 due to decommissioning • Group C: Information from at sea sampling, formal and informal contacts with the industry and from inspection of import/export records. RF = 2.0. • Group D: Either no information available or negligible misreporting. RF = 1.0 • In addition: misreporting by area

23. Eastern Baltic Cod: estimating underreporting

24. Eastern Baltic Cod (25-32)

25. Eastern Baltic Cod (25-32): quality

26. Eastern Baltic Cod (25-32) • Advice • Last year • Management plan under development but not implemented or evaluated • In absence of fishery, no recovery to Blim (160 000t) • Given critical state of stock; advice based on precautionary reference points – no fishing. • This year • Management plan under development but not implemented or evaluated • Given critical state of stock; advice based on precautionary reference points – no fishing.

27. Eastern Baltic Cod (25-32) TAC 2007 catch 2007 Short term forecast; assuming no implementation error !!

28. Herring 31 Bothnian Bay 30 Bothnian Sea 25-29, 32 Main Basin Gulf of Riga IIIa and 22-24 home

29. Herring 25-29 + 32 (without Gulf of Riga) home

30. Herring 25-29 + 32 (without Gulf of Riga) • Assessment • Catch data and one acoustic survey • Natural mortality derived from multi-species model • Issues • Complex stock structure • Imprecise catch data: • Possible species misreporting (sprat, herring)

31. Herring 25-29 + 32 (without Gulf of Riga)

32. Herring 25-29 + 32 (without Gulf of Riga)

33. Herring 25-29 + 32 (without Gulf of Riga) • Advice • Last year • Fpa advice: maximum 164 000 t. • This year • Fpa advice: maximum 194 000 t. TAC 2007: 133 000 t.

34. Herring in Gulf of Riga home

35. Herring in Gulf of Riga • Assessment • Catch data, commercial CPUE (passive gear) and acoustic survey • Recruitment predictions based on environmental indicators • Issues • The Gulf of Riga is semi-enclosed ecosystem: • low salinity restricts the occurrence of marine species • herring is the dominant species predator (cod) • Substantial retrospective overestimation of stock size

36. Herring in Gulf of Riga

37. Herring in Gulf of Riga

38. Herring in Gulf of Riga • Advice • Last year • Fpa (= 0.4) advice; maximum 33 900 t in 2007. • This year • Fpa (= 0.4) advice; maximum 30 100 t in 2007. TAC 2007: 37 500 t.

39. Herring in 30, Bothnian Sea home

40. Herring in 30, Bothnian Sea • Assessment • catch data (with revised ageing for the years 2002–2006) and two commercial CPUE series. • Issues • Mostly taken in trawl fishery with low bycatch of sprat • Environmental conditions affect growth and natural mortality • No information available to quantify natural mortality • Substantial retrospective error in estimation of stock size

41. Herring in 30, Bothnian Sea

42. Herring in 30, Bothnian Sea: quality

43. Herring in 30, Bothnian Sea • Advice • Last year • Fpa advice; maximum 83 400 t. • This year • Fpa advice; maximum 67 300 t. TAC 2007: 82 800 t. (including Bothnian Bay)

44. Herring in 31, Bothnian Bay home

45. Herring in 31, Bothnian Bay • Assessment • Catch data and commercial CPUE available • Data insufficient for reliable assessment • Exploratory assessments: SSB relatively low in recent years • Issues • Catch in subdivision 31 are small fraction of TAC area (30 and 31)

46. Herring in 31, Bothnian Bay • Advice • Last year • Uncertainties in the state of the stock • Do not exceed catches at recent (2002–2005) average 4700 t. • This year • Uncertainties in the state of the stock • Catches should not increase (3000 t. in 2006)

47. Herring in IIIa and 22-24 (spring spawners) home

48. Herring in IIIa and 22-24 • North Sea: autumn spawners • IIIa and 22-24: spring spawners North Sea IIIa 22-24

49. Herring in IIIa and 22-24 • Assessment • Catch data, 2 acoustic surveys and 1 trawl survey • Split between autumn- and spring spawners based on otolith microstructure • Issues • Misreporting between North Sea and Skagerrak (taken into account) • No reference points defined (… but work ongoing) • Some retrospective overestimation of stock size

50. Herring in IIIa and 22-24