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Development of Indian Solar PV Market

Development of Indian Solar PV Market. Harsh Agrawal. Morgan Stanley Infrastructure. Large Opportunity to Develop Solar Power in Sunbelt. 9 Out of Top 10 PV Markets till Date Outside Sunbelt.

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Development of Indian Solar PV Market

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  1. Development of IndianSolar PV Market Harsh Agrawal Morgan Stanley Infrastructure

  2. Large Opportunity to Develop Solar Power in Sunbelt 9 Out of Top 10 PV Markets till Date Outside Sunbelt Source: NASA, IEA Technology Roadmap Solar photovoltaic energy, EPIA Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics until 2014, A.T. Kearney analysis, EPIA Unlocking the Sunbelt Potential of Photovoltaics. Second edition – October 2010 (1) For systems larger than 1 MWp; 85% per formance ratio (2) Cumulative installed capacity 2009 (3) Electricity demand 2007

  3. India Portugal Greece Rest of EU Spain China South Korea France Rest of World Belgium Czech Republic USA Japan Italy Germany European Initiatives Key Driver of Market Development Market Driven by Aggressive (Sometimes Unsustainable) Subsidies SPAIN Source: EPIA Global Market Outllook for Photovoltaics until 2014

  4. Current Global Situation • Germany announced mid-year 2011 and 2012 cuts in feed-in tariff • No hard cap on installations yet • Reduction in installation run-rate, however “soft-landing” likely with Germany remaining leader in installations in near term • Spain is finalizing proposed cuts in feed-in tariffs • Cap on subsidized production from existing solar installations • Future cuts in Solar PV, Solar CSP and Wind • Growing demand from Italy and Japan from closing gap of solar to grid parity • Demand in US expected to pick up • India and China have announced national solar incentive schemes

  5. Large Opportunity in India and China Both Countries Have Indicated Solar Priorities (JNNSM and Global Sun Programs) Source: EPIA report “Unlocking the Sunbelt Potential of Photovoltaics. Second edition – October 2010”

  6. Strong Interest Shown in Solar PV Under NVVN 343 Applications Received for 150 MW, 30 Projects Awarded Source: NVVN website Sources: NVVN website

  7. Current Range Illustrative Global Solar PV Tariffs Selected Solar PV Tariffs Globally US Cents/KWh Historical Peaks Source: Industry Sources

  8. Realization of Expected Cost Curve Essential Future Cost Curve: Essential for Long-Term Success of PV in India €/kWp Pricing Capability (1) for Large PV Systems (2) (€/kWp) (56)% (66)% Source: NREL, EIA PV technology roadmap 2010, Greenpeace Solar Generation 2008 V, EPIA Set for 2020, IEA Technology Roadmap, A.T. Kearney analysis, Unlocking the Sunbelt potential of Photovoltaics. Second edition – October 2010 (1) In real terms 2010 € (2) Turnkey PV systems larger than 1 MWp, further details see Appendix

  9. Observations • Increasing scale of JNNSM and solar opportunities • Actual cost curve realization in India • Land issues • Evolution of policy and subsidy support for larger projects • Non-recourse financing availability • Rates and Tenor • Thin film vs. c-Si • Impact of a stronger RMB and weaker EUR • Some areas of interest • Integrated Solar / Wind Opportunities • Off-grid / mini-grid opportunities • Upfront capital subsidies (rooftop, etc.)

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